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Arbitration may still land. RG doesnt know when it will land. Year end is a guestimate. Not sure if we are in closed period though but RG looks like he will drag everyone through the coals if they come at him imo

Oil price has held up so the freecashflow outlook must be in the bag for the full year results..

I am amazed a money machine that can print $2bn freecashflow can be bought for $0.3bn. The debt jigsaw is a red herring and the debt stakeholders want the interest serviced forever.

This low SP must all be down to a few wealth managers getting their feet under the table for the meteoric ride up imo

With sustainable free cash flows worth $2bn @9% dcf and reserves $4bn, the jigsaw security for debt clearly an issue. Positve outcome on the arbitration and kenya will give everyone what they want and this will bounce very hard imo

Not same old tlw though? Looks like FY outlook will be met and sustainable fcf for operations and financing. Low volumes and system flooded with shorts and no sellers. Watch this spike as the shorts try to close. Only a couple of days for the rns to drop. Maybe even today. Who knows?

Tanker, do you mean arbitration on the branch profits or arbitrage of the 7% bonds like wot RG done?

No chance default. Worst case they issue more shares but not H1 2025 timeframe imo

Freecashflow, reserves and drilling program more than adequate to pay the 7s and positions for the 2026 . Q1 2025 oil $72/$73 and a trump tailwind covers glencore and the rcf lowered.

ICC release the branch profits before year end?Noble drilling suggests a deal done or at least positioned to be done? Bumpy Q1 no doubt.

*and RG arbitraging his companies debt and his CEO resigning.

Starmer would say it's all perfectly legal. But it's not a good look. I mean, who can you trust?

That's the unwind trade. It's big volume as someone already said because of a short just under the disclosure.

What a period. Price up before the bid announced. Price down on the announcement of the bid. Price down again on withdrawal of bid. Goldman and shorters filling the hopper.

Anyone want to say how much volume still in the hopper. 18.5p?

Hope I dont expire before those put holders lol

Crikey, more good news and not a small transaction. What a week, so far

That's good news and underpins a sustainable $2bn freecashflow at 9% dcf. With more than $4bn reserves I dont see any liquidity or gearing problems at all. Like the BoD have said they are just getting on with actual structuring. Tax settlement should probably be bartered imo.

100p+ imho

Gaming the transactional processes doesnt change the TLW turnaround or its ability to pay down and service debt etc. Hope the new ceo appointment can progress quickly, tullow still looks good.

C.$2bn fcf at 9% dcf

C.$4bn reserves

Maybe a big oiler

Happy xmas all

Price drops on announcement of potential bid. Drops on announcement no bid. What a racket

LoL

TLW has c.$2bn in sustainable cashflow. C $4Bn in reserves. Already media is speculating supply shortages 2nd half 2025 and major opec players want $80 for breakeven. Conditions are right for KOS or a bigger rival. TLW is in a straight jacket of marginal revenue = marginal cost perfection. That's why RD is leaving.

How long will it take to plug a few numbers in a spreadsheet and get the BoDs inky approval. Surely it's already been done over a weekend?

*mmboe

$200m fcf in perpetuity is $2.2bn at 9% dcf

2p reserves at H1 were $3.1bn mpg

Then there's 725mmboe 2c reserves at ($1or$2)

50p must be a floor. I would like 25p cash plus 1 for 4 in kos trading in a trumpian economy?

Oil price looking good for top end of fcf guidance.

$200m in perpetuity in the merged entity must price tlw at 50p+ surely?