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The mention of CE made me check if he has posted at all on his other shares - since he stopped posting here.
Nothing for a year.
I know he was invested in other of CB's companies so its a bit surprising / worrying that he abruptly stopped posting on all of his shares at the same time.
I hope he's OK and nothing untoward happened to stop him posting ?
I was in email comms with him and he's not replied to any emails either.
I bit worrying tbh I hope he's OK.
"he knew long before us that the grades/tonnage etc from drilling campaigns to date down the Bush were going to be decently shy of what he was earlier hoping/expecting.. and instead of trying to manage back expectations on a gentle/incremental basis he just 'kept digging'."
Exactly NtM
Almost as if he thought if he kept saying it, it would eventually become true :)
Whistling in dark springs to mine !
CB was right to be overly optimistic if his intention was to raise the sp to get a placing away. I think he can be forgiven for that as the bigger picture of his intentions was to progress RC and therefore realise value.
However, after the second raise he didnt stop with his ramping and I remember exactly what he said in a zak interview
"we know we have the grades" and " I'm not bothered about the grades"
They were mostly circa 0.25% cu so these are the grades he was talking about
Then in the roast interview in Nov last year he said (I'm paraphrasing this bit)
" We would have a problem if all the grades were around 0.25% but we have the near surface grades into the 0.3% "
So the grades circa 0.25% were not a problem..... but then they were a problem.
That isnt CB being overly optimistic. He's been found out imho and his tone in the Nov roast interviews implied he was rattled and had no credible answers. So he tried to Gas light the shareholders and imply it was our lack of understanding rather then his failure to delivery. Desperate and transparent tactics imho.
Who, the hell is now going to believe a word he ever says in an interview ever again (waves at Dani :) )
All that said, more by luck than anything else, I really do think it will be OK # in the end, simply because of the future higher POC in 2024/2025 .
# OK being £100m buyout at some point in the future (after 10,000 lashes though, not just a 1000 ! )
"I hope you have a comprehensive file of figures with which to baffle the PI's "
From reading her many previous posts, I think its fair to say, she does :)
"will others want to buy us out like Kiwara when we have a whole stable of random projects alongside BR"
I don't see this as a problem. The buy-out valuation will be determined from BR sale ie £100M and shareholders will get the cash for their shares and then the sp will reflect the remaining valuation ie sp falls back down to 3 or 4p reflecting assets left ex BH ie mostly FB. I can't see the other assets stopping a buy-out for just BR.
"hence my concern anyone who bought at 6p+ won't see a return of their money, unless a buy out takes place."
If there is no news indication we have a viable asset in BR then I can't see sp going over 4P as valuation it will only be based on FB plus small copper deposits. Could be that all the news we get over next 12 months gives no indication that we have a major who would be interested. CB may have been found out as being overly optimistic...... or worse.
That said, I still remain confident that what may save us, and CB, is the POC going over $12K ..or much higher, but I doubt that will be happening for 1 or 2 years.
NtM
I think mismatch between SP and fundamentals is down to a complete lack of trust in CB now, after all his previous failed predictions against timelines and output.
Although it does seem bizarre that the market has not recognised ANY future FB income, that is the price CB now pays for this poor forward guidance. The market will now only respond to facts in the RNS imho.
We should have all those facts re FB income in an RNS in the next 2 to 5 months and even if the income levels are not as CB previously stated, its going to be high enough to see a substantial SP rerate closer to 3p than 2p imho.
The saying "you can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all the time" springs to mind.
AGM in 5 to 6 weeks should be interesting :)
Snap howzap !!
SP is not down 8% in reality. There was a U/T trade after hours yesterday which caused a false close of up6%.
Its probably down 2% in reality
Has to be held by end of June with a 3 weeks notice period.
I would think CB will be leaving it as late as possible so Friday 30 June and an RNS calling it in early June??
Btw Dani and for clarity..
I agree with your main point that FB production will keep increasing and that the SP will appreciate .
I've made those points many times before.........but you may have also missed those posts of mine as well :)
Dani
" I am very surprised you have not commented on XTR stellar result at Manica YE 22."
That's wrong. I did that a few times right after the results were released.
"You say investors are waiting for Fairbride income to materialise - well it already has materialised but it's not yet reported "
That doesnt make any sense. Unless £ and $ are reported we have no idea what it is so it can't affect SP.
Explicitly it stated in the RNS "Sales and Income ex Fairbride"
No one has any idea what the £ and $ will be unless its reported. And it hasnt been yet.
So we have no idea what the income is or indeed actual profit is. You repeatedly making those figures up won't help either !
" bit more studying RNS's may make all the difference !"
You do irony so well Dani :)
Come ti pare, Dani :)
"once again approaching AGM time with no progress at BR in the last 9 months. "
I suspect this is because CB has had to "park" this project until we start getting the FB money in. Not a lot he can do that doesnt require some sort of payment to someone.
I don't think we will be accumulating the necessary funds from FB to do more drilling until Q4 as it ramps up (although we will be getting some into Xtract now no doubt) .
Phase 3 will have to happen in some fashion (albeit more limited than PH1 and 2). I can't see that starting until Q4 or even Q1 next neat year. We then have the drilling, assays and re assessment of results and re assessment of economic model.
My estimate of Bushranger sale next year may be a tad optimistic ! It may well be 2 years away but the good news is that copper will be much higher in 18 months to 2 years, so no doubt worth the wait imho.
LW
thats a fair point but re 40KG but we are now out of the rainy season and still increasing production.
I cant see it being 80kg at max production, but I thing it will be 60 kg by q4. If POG stays above $2K which it looks like doing - thats a lot of FCF to Xtract.
Ntm
If this share wasnt called Xtract and with the info we have re manica , albeit from a third party, I would agree that the sp should be higher, and move quicker
But legacy issues are no doubt holding the sp appreciation back. I doubt we will get another RNS quarterly update until late July / early August re manica. So I doubt the market will respond until official RNS news re income. That news will have to confirm £ and $ and for all the good info Empress are telling us re production, they can't convert that in actual bottom line profit for xtract. So I'm not sure that Empress updates are going to be the driver for sp appreciation. But I agree the indications are good.
Obviously that is all regards manica production, as that was the question, so if we get any good news on Bushranger re pre-concentration then SP may appreciate quickly after that news - which could be in a weeks time or months away !
"Just wondering when the markets will realise the real position at Xtract through the Manica income."
When we get actual £ or $ profit stated in an RNS. Not from CB in an interview.
So starting in about 3 months time imho
I would think a further production increase of 20% is likely from May as we are now leaving the rainy season which would no doubt hamper production a bit. That gives us circa 2K oz a month and that is the figure I've thought more realistic despite the official claims. It may be a bit more but I doubt it will be anything like the quoted figures. I may be wrong.
At 2k oz a month production I would think our profit AFTER TAX would be circa £400K - assuming POG stays at current level
I suspect due to obvious legacy issues with trust, the SP will not be reflecting any future income from FB until its confirmed in an RNS. When it is, and assuming it will be at that level of production, the sp should be going over 3p imho.
But not until we get those figures in an RNS ! And that may take another 3 to 6 months to get that confirmed
The way I see it playing out is the sp starts to rise on anticipation of a buy-out (some time next year).
The buy-out offer is at a premium to sp (20% to 40%)
We will probably be offered a split of cash and discounted shares in the major (I would think)
Assuming it it accepted the sp is recalculated after buy-out reflecting the value of remining assets.. so may be down to 4 or 5p?
This is a great and very optimistic discussion !
lets try and get back over 2p first :)
.
"Kwaks how much did you have to lose to be so persistently bitter and negative"
Here's your answer......
kwadoku
Posted in: ECR
No Opinion
Is this another pump and dump? 04 Oct 2021 10:33
Taken a hammering on BZT ........and a few other miners who seem more interested in a lifestyle company as opposed to a a money-making company. Doesnt help that Craig Brown has the same initials as Colin Bird.
I wonder how Kwad's book is going. The one titled "how colin bird ruined my life and if wasnt for him I'd have been a success" !
As Elsa would say... "Let it go, let it go " :)
If anyone is selling at this price then I think that's a mistake due to FB income yet to be declared.
If you write off all of Bushranger, which the sp has done so already imho, I can't see how this is not going higher after FB income officially declared.
I think the sells are from those that don't want to wait another 3 to 6 months for FB income to be confirmed in RNS and think they can make money quicker in another punt.
If their short term timescales are 3 months or less then they are probably right to sell.