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These are just about OK results. Not bad or good.
Take away points imho
FB is ramping-up and " Preliminary mining contractor gold production from Fair Bride deposit of 123.68kg for Q1 2023, equivalent to 3,976 ounces"
As production increases from April in manica due to better weather we should be at circa 70kg a month by Q2. imho
"Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Still no indication of actual income from FB. I assume that will be reported next quarter?
BE and GF look like they should keep on for some time in a steady state way.
Sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. How much more do we have left??
As CB said FB will add much more than alluvial loss, so massive net gain coming with substantial increase in income probably by Q2 OR Q3 latest.
i wonder if he will do interview or just keep his head down for now?
I think that understanding is probably correct as Fair Bride is obviously a completely separate area compared to Guy Fawkes and Boa Esperanza, and they were not in the semi-annually comment and can't be seen to be anything to do with Fair Bride??
Jezzo
RNS said
"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."
My understanding was that that the semi-annually reporting period was referring specifically to production at FB only and not the alluvial and small HR?? Those other two production streams are more manica in general. If it was for ALL production then I would have thought the word "Manica" would have been used and not Fair bride??
Well, that's my understanding. I guess we'll know which interpretation is correct soon enough.
"When can we expect next set of production updates please?"
Imminently :)
Last quarter release was 9 Jan so if its as late as that then it should be tomorrow (just before Easter). If not then it will be after Easter which means they will be latest ever release - circa 3.5 months after period ended.
If they were good they would be released by now so I'm expecting them to be average at best ie circa 50 to 60 kg for the period. Anything less than 50KG will be disappointing imho.
Alluvial production is running down but small Hard rock seems to be increasing so most of the production may well be down to small HR??
CB has left it nice and vague for both views to be correct. I think on balance it means June / July but I accept that may be wrong.
For clarity I dont think this will be going over 2.5p until FB results have been released - be that April or in circa 3 months time.
NtM
If you are right about the April update then you may be right about getting to 2.5p earlier. The reason why I said 3 months before 2.5 p, is because we were told in the 9 Jan RNS that....
"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."
To me that implies another 3 months wait before next update??
NtM
I'm not expecting this to be going over 2.5p anytime soon so you will have plenty of Fridays to get in with
"Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend! :)
I think we will need FB results to get this back over 2.5p and that wont be happening for circa 3 months.
I can sell 900K no problem. Previously over the last 2 weeks it was hard to sell and when I could max of 400k to 500K.
Too early to call the reversal but possible some green shoots of recovery???
Maybe Q4 results next week will help things along......or slow things down :)
tbh I would rather the journey back to 6p was a robust one that took time rather than a relatively quick spike back up. I would have more confidence that we would be staying at 6p if it look circa 9 months to get there and that would be a firm base for hopefully further gains?
My immediate concern is seeing some big sells over next few days. If we dont see that then hopefully we will have a slow climb back up??
Looks like 1.3p U/T trade after hours wiped out the real 15.4% rise !!
At least it should open up tomorrow :)
Done a few dummy buys...can't buy anything
I suspect that as the MC and sp are decoupled from the fundamentals a few were waiting until the selling had stopped or that others were going back in.
Whether this is a false dawn remains to be seen.
If we dont get big sells over next few days then maybe, just maybe we are going to bounce up from the lows?
"I still believe this will turn out to be a good story ..."
That's also my view but I suspect that will be as much due to the very high POC over the next 12 to 18 months than anything else. We may need $10K + copper to make a sale and that is not what CB implied.
Unless we get a sale at current POC then my view will be that CB has been coming out with BS over the last 2 years even though we still may do well here. But that will probably be mostly due to the high POC .
It has to be held within 6 months of the end of the last FY - so by 30 June. Probably on Friday 30 June as CB may want to leave it as long as possible for sp recovery and FB ramped up ??? If earlier then still in June
We have to have 3 weeks notice.
Rules were relaxed during covid but my understanding is that we are now back to pre covid rules.
Doc
I suspect you are looking at Google finance. That records the sp as whatever the last trade was so if it was a sell it may be 1.22 but if it was a buy then 1.35. Thats why the SP appears to move up and down so quickly.
I would ignore google finance as its complete misleading for current and true SP. Look at Advfn which is free and gives you the real time trades and real SP. LSE also does that but its 15 min delayed
Its down 3.7%
Total volume of trades is about 650K which is 0.07% of total shares in issue
I can sell 500K so MMs still will buy
Latest date the Q4 results should be out is by Thursday next week - hopefully sooner.
Although alluvial's are running down we may see an increase in BE and GF production. If so that may start the very slow rise back-up?
If not, as NtM says, its a case of waiting for the FB income to be declared. I would think CB would want to get some good news out before the AGM as there are going to be many disgruntled SHs at the AGM if the sp is around this level when the AGM takes place.
(I'm being kind when I use the word "disgruntled" - may be f@!*#ing furious is more accurate :)
All interesting, but last 1 minute rather pertinent :)
https://youtu.be/UDvmXpjkZCM
If their time scales are correct we may have to wait a bit longer than we would have liked - but super spike will happen.
Butler
I've given my timescales on many aspects before and have been hopelessly wrong every time - always too optimistic even though many, at the time, thought my timescales were pessimistic !
It would not surprise me if it takes until end Q3 / early Q4 before we are up to FULL commercial capacity at FB. Hopefully we will get an update in June / July at the bi-annual report showing good income?
I have given up guessing the timescales for the other events.
I agree with you that a buy-out is now unlikely before H1 2024.
I'm still here and hopeful of a good return on my investment because 1.3mt + a very high POC will see a buy-out at a substantial increase of current SP and probably nearer to 10p than 5p.
But when that will be is now the question and I cant see it being any time soon :)
"Budding mining analysts will have to do another spreadsheet, Bitcoinbuyer will finally shut up about fuel costs, FatherTedFeck might finally see the light "
I very much doubt that.
The motivation of those persistent pessimists is not to make a genuine and honest assessment of this company, but to spread fear and worry and enjoy watching others misfortune (when sp is falling).
I don't have the required psychological analytical skills to explain or understand why they would want to do that but I do know its not for altruistic reasons.
Maybe when you're life has not tuned out how you would have wanted and you've had many failures, your only "success" is watching others not succeed?