Adrian Hargrave, CEO of SEEEN, explains how the new funds will accelerate customer growth Watch the video here.
I feel the reason CB doent do robust DD is because he's obsessed in finding another Kiwara quickly and knows time is not on his side . I wonder if his approach would be different if he was 30 years younger??
He seems to treat these acquisitions like someone buying lottery tickets. He thinks the next one could be the big one !!
Reading the presentation today, it seems hes not going to stop buying more lottery tickets. Understandable really ,as the shareholder's are the one's paying the cost of these tickets :)
"Can’t blame their DD process for a partner being dodgy and in debt."
Yes you can.
Proper DD is done to ensure that you know that the partner is not dodgy or in debt !
So..
Kalengwa Dead
Kajevu" known as the "Matrix Project". Dead
Eureka Dead
All in Zambia
The mission statement in presentation.... Establish a small-scale sustainable copper mining company in Zambia
If nothing else, you have to say CB is persistent :)
No doubt DD was not done as well as CB implied for these projects, but he will have to go along way to match the incompetence and lack of DD on the Moz Gold fiasco. The diamond miners (sic) realised in a couple of months that alluvial Gold mining was not like Diamond mining and the wrong plant had been used to process our type of Gold. Too fine I think??
You'd have thought CB would have checked that with Moz Gold first :)
Tbh I'm not interested in any other projects apart from FB and Bushranger. And I'm not interested in presentations, promises and mission statements or CBs excited interviews now.
I now just want to see results. Hes had long enough.
Yes it was his blog I was thinking about.
https://icebergshares.blogspot.com/2022/11/xtr-jorc.html
Could it be the 730 was re RC alone and Iceberg's 1billion was for RC and Ascot?
Bottom line is that we may have more than just what the JORC shows?
"or his he including material that couldn't be mentioned in the JORC? "
Didnt Theiceberg (or may be someone else) mention this before and that was the conclusion??
Not 100% sure but that rings a bell.
Just 1 share trade gone though
we all know what that means....
Apparently :)
CB bought :
£22K jan 23
£70k Aug 21
£57K april 21
£58K feb 21
All in the open market
May be he did believe his own forward guidance :)
"Did CB's estimated full production gudiance previously at average gold prices for 22/23 not equate to more like approx £450k p/m to xtr Andrew? That instead of £300k p/m is my main point."
NtM this is a good example of of the point I was making.
If FB income is "only" £300K then CBs forward guidance of £450K a month will have proven to be nonsense (as usual) . He also talked about the $1M a month income from all income sources which we are nowhere near.
But although the reality will no doubt be much less than Cb's guidance, it will still be a significant amount, possibly transformational ie £300K a month FB alone?.
In you previous post you said
"I'd also add: and -might easily prove - not to be as significant income to xtr.l as CB implied."
You didnt just say it could be a lot less than CB's guidance (which I'm sure it will be) you said "not be significant". That was the point I was challenging.
Being a lot less than Cb's guidance, doesn't mean not significant. And therefore things not happening as quickly or at the levels that Cb implied doesnt mean nothing of significant note and value is happening.
In short, CB's expectation management is shocking and self destructive.
Ntm
I believe a very conservative estimate of FB income is £300K a month FCF at full production. If so that is significant imho.
You could be right and it may be a lot less than that and not significant. Also the Economic model could show $10K break even and the POC may never get above that - even in the next 10 years.
If we believe the worst case will happen (and it might) then I can't see the point in anyone holding this now tbh.
My one liner with CB is .... just because you cant believe everything he says, doesn't mean you cant believe anything he says :)
We shall see.
My confidence in CB's forward guidance has always been low - hence my many comments over the years and stating that he has been "deliberately deceptive" on a number of timescales and anticipated outputs
However, we must not conflate CB's very optimistic forward guidance comments with the fundamentals here.
We have a big asset in Bushranger (not as big as CB implied) and regular significant income to come from FB (not as soon as CB implied) . Many understandably feel let down or deceived by CB, but that doesnt mean there arent great fundamentals here or that the true value won't be realised at some point in the future. But that "at some point in the future" probably wont be this year so I suspect many have left as they cant / don't want to, wait that long and can see a quicker return in another small cap.
I good example of the potential here is assuming the economic model is very disappointing and shows a break even POC of say $9K or $9.5K . I doubt anyone, esp the majors, would not think POC will be well over that figure for the whole of LOM after it was built.
Worst case scenario here, imho, is that this is going to take a lot longer than CB implied.
CB better a get a move on with this buy-out.... hes going to lose a few million options if he doesnt strike a deal in next 12 months
"The New Options will lapse five years after the date of the award, being 19 February 2024"
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/directorpdmr-shareholding-m5g41puow1y4x62.html
" i finaly lost faith & sold at start of December before the latest collapse in price"
The share price was 2 to 2.1p at the start of December - just slightly more than now and significantly lower 2 weeks earlier.
The fall started in Mid Nov so you didnt sell before the collapse.
With the narrative of our post I'm not too sure why you decided to title it "Long term hold !"
"However, one has to factor in that with the increase in the price of Cu since the agreement was signed, less than 2MT would eventually lead to the same sort of profit margin AA originally envisaged."
Exactly my thoughts. AA can play the long game and wait until we have satisfied their view of a DtM, but as time goes on the price they will have to pay is almost certainly going to go up as POC increases.
AA should want to strike a deal sooner than later.
Although its a PITA seeing timescales move out, its highly likely that the longer this takes the higher the buy-out
susceptible= scepticism
I think the "sack of salt" susceptible is only required when CB said something very positive or optimistic. I dont think saying more drilling will be required falls into that rampish category so I believe him when he said that in pod cast.
The RNS statement also seems to supports that view.
We will be doing more infill drilling but may need to wait for the report - or income from FB before commencing this. My end of the year buy out is looking very very optimistic and I suspect the sp fall over the last few months is because many many have decided to sell as this is too long to wait.
They will know doubt be back as things progress and get nearer to conclusion
"What would prevent getting on with the drilling immediately? Cash flow? Availability of rig? Lack of motivation? Weather?"
Maybe awaiting the ES report to know what "gaps" need to be filled and where best to do the infill drilling? Of course lack of funding and waiting for FB to keep ramping up could also be a reason ?
I can't fault the logic of assuming we may be in the queue of this PR campaign, but tbh I'm not that bothered even if we are.
After listening to so many of the roast "interviews" on many of CBs companies, its clear to me that the roast boys are nothing more than CBs "head of public relations".
They are doing what Alistair Ford should have done. And doing it better than he ever did.
All great PR, but it will offer nothing to anyone already invested and for many on here we know to take, not just what Cb says with a sack of salt, but also the comments of the roast boys. They seem to get just as excited as CB when talking about the projects and never challenge him on any of his failures ( timescales or output deliver)
It should be seen for what it is -- a paid for promotion.
Not me Gixxer :)
but I am adding 100K once a month if under 2p
Sorry to say but those two 2.1m trades look like two transfers to me as ask / bid hardly moved. Buys or sells, I thing they would have significantly changed the bid / ask if they were genuine buys or sells
Whatever the vehicle for the true economical assessment, PFS? The market would not respond well to an initial resource model showing a breakeven figure less than or the same as the current POC. The market would not be thinking ...
"well we all know POC is going much higher in future years so its all going to be great"
CB has a responsibility to increase shareholder value and he wont be doing that, at least in the short term, if he released a model showing current POC is lower than breakeven.
As for POC tankng by 20%. Thats exactly why the majors do their calcs, before a buyout offer, at discount to current POC. Cadia new resource used $7700 POC in their calcs when POC was much higher
" I personally think he has the updated report and will just keep 'processing' the data until the price of copper is higher and he has acquired enough revenue from Fairbride to fund a short phase 3. "
Agreed.
Maybe I'm reading too much into his recent comment, but he went from early 2023 for ES to... I don't know when it will be released - just 2 weeks ago. He seems to be pushing time scales out maybe to give himself more time as POC (he thinks) will start to go higher.
With no FB income news due for some time and possibly no ES for a few months, this could be a barren time for any significant news.