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The two big sells today didnt seem to stop the MMs increasing the Ask.
Now n/t to buy like yesterday.
Another tick-up coming????
I hope you're right James, but I would be surprised if at full capacity FB production was more than 2500 oz a month for EVERY month . DFS said 31k a year = circa 2500 a month.
I think 75kg a month (circa 2500 oz) is max it will be. I know CB said 80kg to 100kg a month but we all know he exaggerates.
At $2000 POG less 700 cost = 1300 oz net profit x 2500 = $3.25M a month. 23% = $747K / £600K pre tax profit a month to xtract.
I think in reality the average production a month over a 12 month period may be more like 2200 due to some production disruption with rainy season in Dec / Jan / Feb, so that may mean pre tax profit is more like £500K to £550K a month.
However, we also need to deduct 32% corporation tax and 6% mining tax. So £350K a month FCF is probably more likely.
Two other factors to consider are taxable profits offset by previous years losses. I'm no expert on this but we have made a loss in previous tax years so we MAY be able to offset some of this against Corp Tax liability so may not pay as much tax?? Second factor is GF and BE contribution. Looking at previous results I make that circa £40K to £50K FCF (After costs and tax).
So my best estimate is a MINIMUM of circa £400k FCF a month by end Q3 latest. If production is at the previously claimed 2500 oz a month and if we can off set some Corp tax against previously losses, it may be as high as £600K by end Q3 - but that is with a lot going in our favour IMHO.
Bottom line, even with a very conservative £400K FCF a month that will be transformational for a company with such a small MC. SP of 2.5p to 3p by end of the year latest (with just manica income alone) looks very reasonable and likely imho.
Obviously POG could well be higher by then and production could be nearer the 2500 oz a month and more than my conservative figures. If so mid 3p's would not be out the question.
of course AIMHO
James
I agree with your calcs. The DFS said 31K a year = 2580 oz a month. If correct thats about 75kg a month so I think CB is being overly optimistic when he said 80kg to 100kg. (Not like him eh? )
I'm expecting 2200 to 2400 a month when at full capacity.
As for % mark-up. I agree with you
POG 2000 700 costs = 1300 profit
20% increase in POG
POG 2400 700 cost = 1700 profit
So 20% increase in POG = 30% increase in profit
Iceberg
When you get a moment, what are your thoughts on Xtract not releasing any NPV r capex in the Open Pit Mining Interim Report?
Was that a Red flag in your opinion of it not being economic?
Is a pre concentration approach standard in these assessments and not a "last attempt" to make things work?
N/t to buy atm
For any amount.
Move up due???
I agree that CB overstated things here in a massive way, and his management of expectations (both output and timing) were terrible. But I also agree with the pod cast narrative that this has been oversold and FB more than covers the MC.
I expect the future high POC to ensure this ends well for SH's (may take a year or even 2 though) but I won't be believing anything CB says in any "interview" from now on. Now matter how "excited" or confident he seems :)
I will now only believe info in an RNS.
Xtract starts at 44min. Called "Bargain of the week"
Although its a paid promotion, at least we may be getting a wider audience via this media?
May be a few new investors will be tempted by the "Bargain of the week" :)
https://audioboom.com/posts/8277021-sunday-roast-easter-sunday-special-featuring-chill-brands-q-a-session-chll-genf-xtr-sed
Dani
If you have been smoking the "wacky backy" for years, then that may explain some of your posts :)
Very Good Ben :)
Actually some of that may be far to close to the truth to be funny :)
That said, If this hits 15p then we will all be laughing and no doubt all long gone.
Well, maybe not all. Some my be still be waiting for the "inevitable" £1 sp before selling..................
Have a Good Easter everyone.
Zak Mir Interview below
https://soundcloud.com/zak-mir-168804435/zakstraderscafe-interview-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources?utm_source=mobi&utm_campaign=social_sharing&utm_terms=mobi_audio_ads.control
CB is consistent with his anticipated income figures here, with his prediction of $400K to £500K a month ("assuming we achieve our targets")
Worth noting that we are now only just starting to process the main Hard Rock which will be higher grade. So hopefully another marked increase in income for next quarter?
CB said steady state should be achieved in 2 to 3 months , so that probably means 4 months so hopefully by mid Q3 we will be at full capacity??
I'm looking for 50% increase in production next quarter (no rain and now in main Hard Rock) and another circa 20% increase for quarter after that. That should take us to CB's anticipated monthly income of circa $450K a month by Q3?
Dani
I've already given you a comprehensive breakdown of my calcs on 16 Jan 2023 at 20:10. That was the second time I have done that and dont want to clog the BB up with another long post.
The "three times "comment by CB was some time ago and that was x3 income from FB per month against alluvial income. If so, that again confirms your income prediction is far too high and more consistent with my FB prediction.
There is nothing more I or anyone else can say to show that your figures are far too optimistic, so I will leave it there. May be you will start to understand more when FB income settles down by Q3 and is broadly what I have said.
So sorry, we are not on the same page.. or even on the same book...or even in the same library. If we were in the same Library I would be by the "factual reading "area and you would be reading at the fiction area :)
For what its worth....MMs will take 1.25M at 1.53p atm
They want shares.
My 17 Jan post..............
Further to the discussion re FB income.
Using a more consensus view, and some may say more realistic, if you look at two upper and low case scenarios we get (imho) a reasonable idea of what to expect.
Assuming margin is 40% (most seem to agree) and we get 23% of that:
Pessimistic view:
POG $1700
65KG month
That works out at $328K a month = £270K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Optimistic view:
POG $2000
100KG month
That works out at $592K a month = £485K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Average of the two upper and lower bands is £375K a month
I think circa £350K a month (+ or - £50K) is a very realistic assumption on level of income from FB when we are at full production - probably some time in Q2
https://audioboom.com/posts/8276536-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
Dani
Interview just out. He confirms FB income at 2min 30 sec
He must have missed your posts as he is talking about $350K to $400K a month profit.
What have I been saying for the last 18 months? £300K to £400K (£) FCF
Check my posts if you like. I've been consistent with this profit and it appears CB agrees with :)
"So you see Andrew4444
This is where I got my info from..... straight from the horses mouth - Colin Bird !!!"
If CB said that, then it must be true. Why would anyone doubt what he says :)
These are just about OK results. Not bad or good.
Take away points imho
FB is ramping-up and " Preliminary mining contractor gold production from Fair Bride deposit of 123.68kg for Q1 2023, equivalent to 3,976 ounces"
As production increases from April in manica due to better weather we should be at circa 70kg a month by Q2. imho
"Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Still no indication of actual income from FB. I assume that will be reported next quarter?
BE and GF look like they should keep on for some time in a steady state way.
Sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. How much more do we have left??
As CB said FB will add much more than alluvial loss, so massive net gain coming with substantial increase in income probably by Q2 OR Q3 latest.
i wonder if he will do interview or just keep his head down for now?
I think that understanding is probably correct as Fair Bride is obviously a completely separate area compared to Guy Fawkes and Boa Esperanza, and they were not in the semi-annually comment and can't be seen to be anything to do with Fair Bride??
Jezzo
RNS said
"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."
My understanding was that that the semi-annually reporting period was referring specifically to production at FB only and not the alluvial and small HR?? Those other two production streams are more manica in general. If it was for ALL production then I would have thought the word "Manica" would have been used and not Fair bride??
Well, that's my understanding. I guess we'll know which interpretation is correct soon enough.
"When can we expect next set of production updates please?"
Imminently :)
Last quarter release was 9 Jan so if its as late as that then it should be tomorrow (just before Easter). If not then it will be after Easter which means they will be latest ever release - circa 3.5 months after period ended.
If they were good they would be released by now so I'm expecting them to be average at best ie circa 50 to 60 kg for the period. Anything less than 50KG will be disappointing imho.
Alluvial production is running down but small Hard rock seems to be increasing so most of the production may well be down to small HR??
CB has left it nice and vague for both views to be correct. I think on balance it means June / July but I accept that may be wrong.
For clarity I dont think this will be going over 2.5p until FB results have been released - be that April or in circa 3 months time.