Member Info for Andrew4444

I think that's wonderful that an anonymous stranger wants to help others in making money by posting info on twitter.
It restores my faith in human nature -and in twitter. Taking altruism to a new level

Lets hope Oil player is correct this time.

He was probably just unlucky with his many previous predictions that all proved completely wrong :)

It's better to use these figures (below) as they are much more recent and moreover, compiled by Xtract - not another company (Auroch).

Auroch's Fair Bride figures are much higher then Xtract's so that may question the veracity of Dots Luck and Guy Fawkes figures stated in Auroch's presentation.

https://www.xtractresources.com/investor/Manica%20presentation%2012March%202017.pdf

CE

If that's what he said at the AGM then, yes he definitely is being more circumspect. And that is welcome.

I expect to see HR income at some point but will wait and see if it does happen in Q4 as he implied. He has in the past got aspirations confused with realistic deadlines / targets so I wont be surprised if Q4 becomes Q1.

Even if things dont work out as well as he has implied (timescales and income figures), any reasonable level of HR income should see a rerate from this MC.

As I've said for a while now, circa 6p has been my expectation within a couple of years (I've moved from 4p to 6p range to 5p to 7p).

Hopefully I will need to revise that up over next 12 months.

We'll see.

Hello CE

Ok thanks for explaining.

That 'formula' you have used is what I was basing my calcs on. I've come up with a higher figure but obviously variables may change. I didn't discount POG as I assumed we would be getting near full price as its hard rock.

Also I think there may be some confusion with grades. The 2.2g/t was after discount (CB has previously said 2.62g/t , in DFS, with 85% discount). I think you have discounted the grades twice. Hence my final figure was higher.

What threw me was when you originally posted

' based on 400tph throughput 20 hours per day'

That meant 8000 tonnes a day (about 1/4 million tonnes a month!) so I could not see how all that could have been processed unless you knew something I didn't.

I was about to order the Ferrari and buy the 6 bed detached house in Totteridge with swimming pool and helicopter landing pad !

Oh well maybe later on- if POG keeps increasing at same rate :)

Hello CE

I may have misunderstood what you are saying there or I am just being a bit thick.

I assume you are talking about processing of the hard rock as you have grades of 2.6g/t

400tph x 20 hrs = 8000 tones a day = 240,000 tonnes a month. The max capacity of the plant is 42,000 tonnes a month, not 240,000 tonnes a month !

Where have a cocked-up ??!!

H50

Many thanks for the comprehensive brief re AGM discussions. Greatly appreciated.

I assume that Sino Mk2 did start 24hr x 200 tph production as stated in Feb and that the $20K a month to Explorator stated in RNS is $20K a month to xtract (one of the same)

End date of alluvial income has changed from Investor Show presentation as he clearly stated then that is had about 15 months left. It appears it could run longer now. Any future alluvial income should soon be almost irrelevant when Hard Rock income comes on stream.

The $500K a month revenue seems very reasonable against my calcs. In fact slightly on the low side against current POG. $500K could be nearer the profit not revenue. Whatever - half that will see the sp rerate.

I assume the early start of HR income in Q4 is against the gravity fed ore (low hanging fruit). I can't see how we are going to get the modified plant up and running and producing volume before end of the year (not according to CB's very recent original plant construction start and end dates). So the $500K a month HR income will be in 2020??

Rerate at some point in next 12 months looks highly likely.

Thanks again for the feed-back.

Pyo

Yes traders share atm and has been a for a while (IMHO). But if you trade too many you may get stuffed with an RNS announcing Hard Rock income. Which could come anytime from Monday to 12 months time !

I'm not risking more than 10% of holding..just in case.

Hello NtM

As I've said many times before, legacy issues have damaged confidence so many now want to see the money rather than believe the hype and predictions. The POG (without HR income) is not going to be a driver for rerate (IMHO) for reasons already stated.

As I do think we will get Hard Rock income at some point in the future (maybe not as much or as soon as CB predicted) I think this will rerate at some point. Therefore I'm trading a small amount to increase my holding for future likely rerate.

Here's another prediction. Q2 alluvial results will be very good (mainly due to increase in production and poss better grades). We'll get a big spike, poss over 1.2p. Within 2 months, if not sooner, fall back 25% or more.

If correct, not a bad opportunity to trade to increase holdings.

Of course CB may do the unexpected and announce hard rock income (low hanging fruit) in that time and then anyone trading this will have lost out !

Many bumps in the road to come, but I think we will get there....eventually!

ASK fall below 0.8p today (0.795p) with POG rising today to nearly $1400.

Who would of thought that would have happened ....

Hello CE

The caveat to my possible sub 0.8p ASK comment, as stated, was assuming there was no hard rock income. If there is any hard rock income then all bets are off . As Hard Rock income, unlike alluvial income, would be substantial and sustainable I think the sp would then rerate. I think it’s fair to say you can forget sub 0.8p ASK then !

As welcome as the higher POG is, this is not the driver for significant increased income. If you number crunch the last alluvial Q1 results and replace the last POG with this very high POG (I’m increasing our local gold sale figure by $100 an oz) we will get just over $5K a month extra income. That would not rerate the sp IMHO.

I expect Q2 alluvial income figures to be the best ever, but that will almost certainly be due to the increase in production (24 hrs X 200tph for ALL of Q2), and, maybe, better gold grades - not because of the increase in POG.

POG will only start to make a significant difference to the revenue when we get hard rock income. That said, irrespective of whether the POG is high or low, when we do get sustained hard rock income, even with say, a sub $1200 POG, we will then get an SP rerate (and a sustained rerate) as income figures would explode and be consistently high.

In short, alluvial income and a high POG are the icing on the cake. The cake is the hard rock income!!

Hopefully tomorrow we can get some clarity on the questions I’ve asked.

I think a few board members are going to the AGM. If so, I think all shareholders would benefit from some clarity on answers to the questions below. It would be greatly appreciated if those that are going could do this.

1. Can CB confirm that Sino Mk2 did start working 2 x 200tph plants in early Feb? I assume they did, but confirmation would be good as many timescales have slipped in the past.

2. It was reported last year that we will be pursuing a compensation claim against Moz Gold. Are we still pursuing Moz Gold compensation claim? If so any news?

3. What is the latest plan for ex Moz gold plant? Will we use it or sell it? If we will sell it, what is the estimated value? (There has been many different valuations reported from different meetings with CB)

4. Will alluvial income stop in circa mid 2020 as stated at Investor show or is this likely to continue after that date as Sino Mk2 are now having to work all the alluvials and not just cherry pick. Again there is confusion on this.

5. Will Xtract be getting $20K a month arrangement fee from MMP ? It has been stated that income will be for Explorator in the RNS. Does that mean Xtract? There has been confusion in the past re income coming to Explorator or Xtract.

6. Is CB still confident that we will still get some Hard Rock income before end of this year? At the investor show he thought we would get Hard Rock income, from the ‘low hanging fruit’. If so, does he have any indication of this level of income? ie more than $20K a month or more than $50K a month?

I did a few dummy buys today and could buy a million in one trade. I have an x-o account.

I think we will see the ask going below 0.8p within the next 2 months....unless we get hard rock income before that period.

Nightingale

I think you've asked a good question re 'why we are only at this level with the Ard Rock news.'. That news is what many were waiting for and I don't think many would say the deal was bad. In fact many will probably say it was a good deal.

So why did this not rerate after that news? IMHO I think legacy issues have damaged confidence here with so many false dawns and missed targets. I think many PIs and the market, have had enough of great potential income and now want to see actual sustained income. That will only come when we get hard rock income. Not promises or indications but an RNS declaring actual income.

In short, many are now saying we'll believe it when we see it.

If this share was not xtr with all the legacy issued the SP would have rerated on that Hard Rock deal. I think it will eventually but probably not until next year. I guess those that believe hard rock income will happen, as CB has implied, it will see this level at a good opportunity to add.

Your sell at 1.20p was well timed. I've been trading this (small amount) on the spikes and buying back on the fall backs. Added 750K shares so far (i'd rather have the extra shares than extra money). Could well be a spike after Q2 results and usual fall back after.

CE

No worries. I thought I'd missed some news then !

Thanks for confirming.

CE

You said that the CIL plant construction due for completion between October and the end of the year. But my understanding is that construction will start Nov and be completed by July next year? Unless I've read this wrong, from RNS...

From RNS

MMP has undertaken to commence construction of the CIL plant and to provide Xtract with a schedule of purchases and an activity chart indicating initial production and a target date for commercial production of no later than 1 July 2020.

Targets and Performance

MMP has agreed to commence construction (as demonstrated by the placement of an order for the CIL), as soon as possible but in any event no later than 1 November 2019 (with a long stop date of 1 February 2020). Construction installation work on the CIL is planned to be completed with commercial production being achieved by 1 July 2020

H50

The $400K figure re Moz was the loan we made to them, not the second hand value. You previously reported that CB said the resale value was $800K. Obviously worth getting a new valuation from CB.

The amount of unsold stored gold is reported every quarter. It will be updated again in July but currently stands at circa $275K. JDAU has done a post with quantities on recently.

Just seen your post JDAU !

Surely half that unsold gold is Explorator's? So we have $222K not $444K ?

We get local gold price which, on latest figures was $1200 oz not full POG.

So I make it circa $266K of unsold gold. Maybe a little more as POG has risen since last sale.

Hello CE

Ok thanks.

I guess it depends on the timing of when CB said what. If the sequence of events was: CB said alluvials would last to mid 2020 then new info came that Sino Mk2 could not cherry pick area then that would extend the alluvial end date to a few years (as you have said). If both bits of info were know at the same time then that assumes the mid 2020 end date was with Sino Mk2 not cherry picking hence the mid 2020 end is still accurate.

As you say, best to get confirmation of this at AGM . If you wouldn't mind.

As for the $20K a month. I mention this as we only get a 50% of Explorator income with alluvial income - as you know. So I would never assume explorator income = xtract income. In the recent RNS it refers to Xtract and Explorator.

If you wouldn't mind, please could you also get confirmation of this at AGM?

Thanks

Hello CE

I may have misunderstood this. Please could you clarify.

I thought the alluvial income was going to stop in about a years time by mid 2020 (according to CB at the investor show). Are you saying it will continue for a few years yet?

Secondly, I thought the $20K a month was for Explorator not Xtract. When we get a % of Explorator's income this is usually stated so I am assuming we dont get any of the $20K?

Am I wrong?