Member Info for Andrew4444

These results are very poor considering the massive ramp-up of production for most of the quarter. What has saved the sp is the poor expectations - probably due to correct feed- back from the investor show. Those reports reduced my expectations ie CB said Q1 results would only just wash our faces + grades very low. I think we;ve only just cleaned behind our ears looking at production!

btw CB has used some of the unsold gold to boost income.

CB comment that..."The hard rock production planning is progressing favourably with a number of options being considered. The Company expects to announce a decision before the end of the second Quarter 2019". ....would usually be seen as very positive for the sp but I think many don't believe any more of his hype. They want to see the results as we have had enough of 'Hard rock news imminent' .

Hopefully Q2 results will be substantially better. Not expecting any hard rock news until late this year. Hope CB proves me wrong.

Results will probably be poor, may be very poor hence long delay in Q1 results. That said, a lot of bad news is priced in at this low level imo. I would be surprised if it went down by more than 10% even with poor results. I guess if you think Q2 will be much better with likely higher grades and 200tph 24/7 for all of month, then any drop could be a good top -up opportunity.

As this is xtract and there seems no logic to some sp movement (to me), sp may even go up a little even on poor results !

May be CB is waiting for Q2 results and will do a combined RNS to hide the poor Q1 results. I hope CB isnt reading this as he may think that's a good idea:)

Moz has been battered, but thankfully Manica has not. See recent precipitation and wind speeds over last few days.

Results may not be good, but that's not down to the storms.

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/manica-weather-history/manica/mz.aspx

Stevensd

Hopefully Q2 results will be good. Full quarter at 200tph 24/7. Better grades etc That may sig increase the sp.

You never know, Q1 results may surprise many! (in a good way :)

Results delayed as there must be so much gold that its taking a lot longer to weigh and count it! :)

Joking a side, historically when the RNS for quarterly results is late, the results are not good. It was reported that CB said at the investor show 'results will just about wash our faces' for Q1 - or something like that.

Implication was they may not be great and the late release supporters this.

Even so, with the sp very low, I can't see a big fall like last time with the hype and hope increase prior to results. It could be that poor results are priced in at this level? I'm hoping for a worse case of 10% drop. Obviously if they are average or better results - we may even see a slight rise.

Surely they will be out tomorrow!

Historically the later the release the worse the results. CB said he wanted to get out the good one in Q2 early hence 16 release. If it is Monday then that would be late and so likely not great results.

I am still going for today PM.

Release date of last 5 quarterly updates:

29 Jan 19
25 Oct 18
16 July 18
27 Apr 18
25 Jan 18

For rain I meant precipitation. Rain % is high but there isnt much of it. See precipitation in mm.

MG85

Not according to 10 day forecast. Look at 10 day forecast half way down the page. Wind and rain virtually nil. Kenneth is 500 miles away from manica!

Working conditions excellent !

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/manica-weather/manica/mz.aspx

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/manica-weather/manica/mz.aspx

...is unusual just before quarterly results. Past 5 quarters sp has rose a few days before results due to buys - no doubt in anticipation of possible good results. I don't think the sells were down to the cyclone as a quick look on the next 2 weeks forecast shows zero impact (rain and wind) for manica area. Cyclone is 500 miles away. In fact weather forecast could not be much better.

I suspect the sells could be due to with more people viewing the investor presentation today. Or to be more precise, viewing the last 1 minute of the presentation!

I think Q1 results will be out tomorrow and although some think they may be lower than last years Q1 results (due to lower grades CB mentioned) , I think they will be better than some expect due to the increase in production from 1 Feb. This should more than make up for lower grades imho.

If I'm wrong and they really are lower than last years Q1 results, then they will be the lowest ever results in a full quarter despite a big increase in production for 2/3rd of the quarter.

If so, then I think those that sold today will be happy with their decision !

We'll see. ATB

LW

But the way to lessen the blow when it happens (IF it happens) is to give a few prior indications that income is not great, costs need to be met etc etc hence a placing may be required. CB has done the reverse by saying that income is going to increase and be significant! And in a few months.

Of course he may prove to be correct re income.

To clarify, I'm not saying it wont improve but my issue was the inconsistency with the positive future income statement and then the last comment about possible placing.

LW

Yes he has been kicking the hard rock can down the road and I would be surprised if we get any income by end of this year.

What was strange or more to the point inconsistent, was his claim that... 'What I am sure is that XTR will be getting good earnings by end of the year.' And his other comment of sustained and significant income by end of the year - but then at the end of the presentation to then talk about the possibility of a placing to cover Zambia project costs - which he says are low.

Surely if he is so confident of significant income by end of the year then he has no need to even think about any future placing to cover low project costs. Why even mention it- even as a possibility.

H50

I think we all can work out the current cash burn and can see that against current costs there is no need for a placing.

But the issue was the possibility of a placing to cover future increased costs due to the Zambia projects. If you don't think there is any possibility of that happening then you need to need tell Colin Bird !.

He was the one who said...

'Hopefully we wont need to go out with a placing bowl to finance Zambia’.

My thoughts..

1. Seemed to be an inconsistency with timelines for start of hard rock income.
CB said that there should be an overlap of HR income and alluvial income for 4 to 5 months.

He also said that Alluvials have 15 months to go. (Takes us to mid 2020)

When talking about hard Rock income he said ...

What I am sure is that XTR will be getting good earnings by end of the year.’

If we have a 4 to 5 month overlap of alluvial and HR income, then HR income should start 2020 late Q1/ early Q2. Nothing like end this year.

2. Total costs are quoted as $672k a year. = $56K a month. Alluvial income quoted as $20K to $60K a month. Can’t see that range averaging $56K a month so are we really profit making as he keeps saying?

3. Most worrying. He said,

’ Hopefully we wont need to go out with a placing bowl to finance Zambia’.

I thought the alluvial and HR income was going to fund the low cost Zambia projects. Why even mention placing to cover Zambia project cost unless there was a chance we would need to do a placing. If he's really confident income will substantially improve (as he keeps saying again and again) then there should be no thinking of a placing to cover very low cost zambia project.

For me, we are fast approaching the end game. If we don’t see a marked improvement in alluvial income over next 6 months and hard rock income over next 12 months I can see more dilution and another sharp sp fall. Of course if those two revenue streams do significantly increase (and they could easily do by then) then SP will rerate.

CB has kicked this can down the road long enough and he’s fast running out of road. Next 6 to 12 months will probably make or break the company.

All in my opinion.

https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/videos/xtract-resources-plc/

If Q1 results do cover all costs (reported by CB as circa $55K a month at investor show) then they must be higher than last years Q1 results of $133K.

Because of the extra processing time from 1 Feb, I am expecting results to be significantly better than last years Q1 results even with lower grades of 0.15g/t.

We should know by Thursday or Friday next week.

Very funny guys but this not a joke board but BB to discuss Xtract resources.

Please stop. Reading these one-liner fish jokes is giving me a haddock. Sorry, but salmon had to say it.

Lets hope Q1 results are not a turtle disaster.

Brad

1. As already stated, the question posed was assuming increase was daily increase of 2.04% so I don't know why you keep dividing that by 365. 2.04% was not the APR but daily increase in the question. It may have been a silly question, but that was the question !

2. You said, 'of course rate/365 is the daily interest, and /12 is the monthly rate'. As explained before, this is incorrect. The compounding factor means you can;t just divide the %. Just check what 1% a month is over a year. Its not 12% a year.

I don't want to clutter this board up with theoretical maths questions so will leave it there. In addition, I can't explain it any clearer and would be just repeating myself if I tried!

He assumed 2.04% was daily increased not yearly.

Also you can't divide an APR by 365 to get daily %, as when you compound it back per day (to power 365) it will be higher than the original APR

ie 12% a year is not 1% a month. 1% a month compounded per year = 12.6825%

1.0204 to power 252 (or any number of days you choose) x original lump sum investment

= 162.238 x £1000

= £162,238 (after 252 days at 2.04% per day)

This is unlikely to happen :)