Member Info for Andrew4444

Lucretius

Surely we know what he paid for the share.

If 2% remaining value represents current sp of 1.3p then he paid 50 times current sp ie 65p

Reverse the calc and you get 63.7/65 = 98% down.

Unless I'm missing something here.

Allrc

I may it 65P to breakeven.

65p less current sp of 1.3p = 63.7p

63.7 / 65 = 98%

Daz

Yes it really does sound wonderful ! Predictions of substantial revenue and massive sp re-rate. All we need now is it to actually happen !

Lets hope, this time, it does!

Thanks CE and Daz

Daz

Forget that. It was the copper dump value. Didn't recognise the figure as it was in £ not $.

Daz

Where did you get the £125M figure from? If it was from your calculations can you give me a breakdown of how you came to that figure?

Asqn

When you say what co would have accepted that deal, It seems like you were referring to Xtract. I would think any co in the world would accept the deal offered to Xtract!

Using CE's figures below. The $27M revenue per year will equate to, at least, $13.5m profit after tax. Maybe more if costs are not high for the reasons CE has stated. Xtract get a third of profit = $4.5M Take off corp tax so that's about $3.5M clear profit after tax. Over 4 years = $14M in the bank.

So we give KPZ $200K of shares and we get $14M back in the bank. Easy as that.

Either that's an astonishingly good deal or my understanding of this deal is wrong. Hmm I wonder which one it is!

If Its as good as it seems then I look forward in the sp re-rating as soon as this deal has been approved!

Asqn

When we were in financial trouble we did placings to raise cash. Xtract will not be giving any cash to KPZ just shares (I believe) and those shares can't be sold for some time and then, only a small % at first.

In short, no injection of cash from Xtract.

Hello CE

Your figures just reinforce my point. So we hand over $200K in shares and we get back multiple millions every year. The $1m in costs will be paid off in no time. Common sense says I clearly don’t fully understand this deal.

Maybe CB will do a pod cast and give us more detail.

Daz

I think we will understand more as the deal unfolds and it may prove to be a very good deal for Xtract but it can’t be as good as I understand it as it’s a nonsensical deal for KPZ to agree to.

Xtract don’t have any equipment or work force so the only way we could start any processing is to do a JV with another company (like Sino deal) or hire a company and pay them from profits in this venture. Why wouldn’t KPZ just do this, cut out the middle man Xtract and get more profit for themselves. The $200K in shares that they will lose would easily be recovered by cutting out Xtract. The question for me is not, is this a good deal for Xtract, it’s absolutely fantastic, but why would KPZ do this deal and give away so much for so little.

Maybe CB found out about this offer from an email from a Zambian Prince !

I am hearing CB is also trying to negotiate a 50% stake in BHP Biliton for 50% sale of Xtract shares !

Ngup

I take your point but that still means that 33% share will generate $1M albeit not profit to us immediately. KPZ are getting $200K in shares and losing $1M in revenue that we will now get. Why don't KPZ sub out to a contractor with equipment and resources and take a %.

If we, as contractor, are going to sub this out to a sub contractor (as we did with Sino) and like Sino, they take a cut of our 33.3% profit, why doesn’t KPZ just sub this out themselves and bypass Xtract as the middle men?

I’m not too sure what Xtract brings to the table and what KPZ gets from Xtract (apart from $200k of shares) that they couldn’t do themselves.

As I understand it, I would'nt say this is good deal - Its unbelievable. Literally!

If something is too good to be true it probably is. There must be more to this than I understand.

I'm trying to get my head around this KPZ deal.

If our 33.3% share (of net profits) can fund the $1m costs I don’t understand why KPZ would want to sell us this 33% of net profit for just $200K of shares.

I may be wrong with this understanding but that's what it seems like to me. Happy to be corrected.

On the same vein as CE's post below re managing expectations, I think there is a possibility that the Q2 result could be released much later than some have suggested or thought likely.

Q1 results were released 1 May - 1 month after the period ended. I wonder if that delay was due to the fact that the Gold is now being sold in Dubai - not locally as in previous quarters. Alluvial Income declaration may now always be 1 month after the period ends.

Those who are expecting the results soon could be waiting longer then they thought.

I'm hearing that the A57 has been closed due to major road works. Diversions are now in place via Wrexham, Cardiff, Plymouth , Southampton and Watford.

Expect long delays until Jan 2020 :)

LW

Problem is CB can't manage news flow if there isnt any to give - apart from the bland 'all fine steady as she goes' RNS. This is why there could be a retrace in those two months as we await for HR income.

Some may say, and I take this view, an sp retrace then is not that relevant as in the big picture we almost certainly will get HR income early next year (I doubt it will be this year). That will rerate the sp and will continue to do so as income increases.

In short, we may still get a few sp hick-ups this year and are probably still driving on snake pass - not yet on the M1 !

And......I agree that confidence is much higher now but what will be instructive is what happens to the sp for the 2 months after Q2 results announced. There wont be any hard rock income announced in that period and we will probably not get any significant news.

How the sp will react in those 2 months will be a good test of confidence.

Daz

To clarify, when I said PYO could be right, was referring to his view the sp could fall further than it has done. I agree with you that it is highly unlikely that the sp will fall back to pre rise levels, or under 1p (IMHO).

Daz

The Q2 results could be over 2 weeks away so there could be enough time for this to drop further prior to results - so PYO could well be right.

Q2 results last year were early as CB said he wanted to get them out sooner than usual. Typically they are released 24th to 27th of the month .

Nightingale

Completely agree. Just because this is highly likely to rerate in early 2020 is no reason to buy into a spike now! I've said a few times I think HR income will be in Q1 not when CB has said. Just for the reason you gave. Interesting that the timescale has moved from Q4 to LATE Q4 (according to H50 at AGM) so we are moving to the right already. Q1 looks much more likely.

So that gives us 6 months before HR income. Plenty of time for this to drift down before HR income. There will no doubt be a spike after Q2 results as production will have increased and, moreover, the results include all unsold Gold (Circa $275K). Some may know about that one-off income but many may not so they will see the great headline figure which will probably cause a spike.

After Q2 results, we have nearly 6 months of waiting for the HR income. 6 Months in AIM is a lifetime to many ! Many will be off looking for the next quick win share and no doubt be buying back in end of the year in anticipation of HR income.

I expect this to bounce around until HR income but the spikes may be a little higher each time and the lows a little higher.

AIMHO

PS

I wouldnt rec trading this after HR income declared!

Coffee

Sorry - but you’ve missed my point.

I’m not disputing the future looks good here but what is the reason to encourage people to buy into a spike? For months Oil Player has constantly said / implied ‘this is a great time to buy’ and then the sp goes down. A few times before, this has come down 25% a few weeks after a spike.

As I’ve said many times before, I expect this to rerate when we get Hard rock income (circa 6p within in 2 years), but we wont be getting any hard rock income for a number of months.

I completely understand and respect that those who have self interest in this rising quickly now, so will no doubt concur with his post. That's just human nature.

I’ll wait for newsflow and the fundamentals to drive the sp higher, not those with ulterior motives on twitter!