RE: sp3 Mar 2021 15:45
Hydrogen & China
A roundtable debate
Mar 2 2021
David Raso
When I think about the Chinese market in the dominant battery, and then eventually hydrogen, how do you perceive the adoption of hydrogen versus battery in that market where the units are just massive, and I'm curious, wherever maybe China decides to go, it creates such scale, it almost then lowers the cost to then drive that technology and the European market. I'm not saying China's going to drive the entire global market. But those are such huge volumes. If you wanted to get scale on fuel cell, that's the place to get it. But what do you think about China's adoption of hydrogen versus battery over the next, you know, five, 10 years?
Brett Merritt
Yeah, it's interesting. It looks like China will go towards hydrogen, that would be, I mean, they already are battery electric adopted if you look at the transit bus market. And the Chinese transit bus market is as large as the entire global transit bus market and it's been least 50-some percent the EV for some time. What we have not seen that due has been able to translate into larger share elsewhere around the world. There are some bits and places you can go.
But it hasn't exactly been scalable. And so it'd be interesting if hydrogen translates to that or not. And what we'd say is, I think the technology is developing so quickly, that the build scale, this goes back to that there's a few games to be played, and maybe stage four is where scale can actually be built. It doesn't hurt, no doubt. But given our scale on other things, I don't think we're completely reliant on China scale alone.
And so, I do think there will be large success in hydrogen in China, it will be pushed by the government and the market and then we'll likely be a player, whether that scale of whoever starts to win early on there, translates into wins and the rest of the market, I think is a little bit of a big leap based on the precedents.
Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410920-cummins-inc-cmi-presents-13th-annual-evercore-isi-industrial-conference-transcript
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