Member Info for Andii

Using BRES 2022 graphite prices and comparing to TGR assets;

for Balama -
21.6% jumbo at $2600/ton
6.9% large at $1340/ton
22.1% medium at $940/ton
49.4% fine at $730/ton
= basket price of
=$1219 for TGR compared with $1190 for BRES
Average LOM operating cost for TGR $425/ton vs BRES $499/ton

For Montepuez-
11% jumbo at $2600/ton
20.7% large at $1340/ton
11.3% medium at $940/ton
57.1% fine at $730/ton

= basket price of
= $1085 for TGR compared with $1190 for BRES
Average LOM operating cost for TGR $438/ton vs BRES $499/ton

For Madagascar
50% jumbo at $2600/ton
30% large at $1340/ton
20% fine at $730/ton

Basket price
= $1848
Average LOM operating costs unknown but probably less than $400/ton

Hi ID78

I first became aware of TGR from Myles McNulty

Here is one of his twitter posts. Burried in the post is a link to a report he carried out, here it is

http://www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/tirupati-graphite-valuation-analysis-05.04.2023-5.pdf

Based on peer analysis, Mykes thinks 200p should be right but that TGR should command a premium over thst as they are already producing.

In regards to BRES, they could do well with a monster resource. But no roads or infostructure in place so first 30ktpa production probably not online until 2026

TGR are doing 30ktpa now and could be up at 200ktpa or more by 2026, @ $1000/t that's $200m revenue a year.

Next post on BRES vs TGR grades/costs

Visitinghost, would you like to comment on the data on page 30 from powerhouse energy

FOAK £22m
NOAK £15m
Long term NOAK £10m

https://wp-powerhouse-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/01/13123317/PHE-150720.pdf

Also you quoted Italy power price tariff,
€280MWh so about £246 in pounds art today's prices.

The government at the 2022 Contract for Difference auctions were offering fixed 15 year Power Purchase agreements for £150/MWh for combined heat and power plants.

Gate fees are now at almost £100/tonne of waste.

Heat as I discussed yesterday is a larger component than the electricity.

Nameplate efficiencies for eqtec plants are about 30% electrical eficiency and 70%+ global eficiency so there is a lot of residual value in the heat, if an industrial customer is next door.

Have a look at France MDC
78% global eficiency. They bought it for next to nothing. Will cost about €30m to €40m to bring online. Heat offtake facility already in place.

6.5MW electrical
Extra heat sales on top
Gate fees for the MSW

https://eqtec.com/wp-content/uploads/EQTEC-France-MDC-Project-Fact-File-Aug-2022-1.pdf

And every plant they build, the next becomes cheaper based on the FOAK/NOAK build out economics.

Refusing to answer the question then visiting host. I've asked about 4 times now over the last few months.

Its quite simple

Did you speak to the BOD before 22nd November 2022?

@visitinghost

Hi Shouston

Eqtec IPO was not Eqtec, if you look back prior to 2017 all Eqtec RNS's relate to Irish asset company React.

This is when eqtec became eqtec PLC merging react e ergy and Eqtec Iberia (barcelona), the technology subsidiary of Ebioss energy (Sofia)

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EQT/completion-of-acquisition-and-admission-sgq0n4s0g4nhr4e.html

Price at that time was between 0.65p and 1.5p so eqtec have not lost 99% since IPO but more like 70% from inception/RTO

OK thats half an answer visiting host.

Please answer the actual question, did you speak to the BOD before or after the November RNS

Sorry to interject with reference to another company, but I was interested to read the updated JORC from FAR and try to see how they may compare to other junior mining companies.

FAR just announced reserves of
203,364 contained tonnes of vanadium pentoxide ("V2O5")
@ selling price for 98% V2O5 flake of USD9.82 /lb
Equates to $4,401,463,993.92

There is also 8.69% carbon. I have heard carbon black mentioned before, is this graphite? What is the flake size and sales value of this? There is just under 3m tonnes of carbon, and 97%+ purity graphite sells from between $500-2500 a tonne depending on flake size so base case add on another $1.5b. S9 potentially $6b of metals (Vanadium and carbon) in the ground?

Then I know that there are other valuable byproducts too but would need to check back reports to find their values.

Here is a maiden Vanadium resource from Tirupati "TGR", it came in at 85k tonne V205 resource so about 40% of Ferro Alloys upgraded reserves, but vanadium is an afterthought for TGR. Their main operation is the 14m tonnes of graphite with nearly half comprising of the more valuable large flake graphite. Added together I get back of the *** packet values of $2b vanadium and $14b graphite so total $16b. They are already producing and market cap is only £30m

https://www.batteryminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Substantial-Maiden-Vanadium-Resource-at-Montepuez.pdf

Hi visitinghost
When did you speak/interview the BOD? Before or after the November Italy MDC upgrade RNS with an additional biochar system and to drying system reducing the price of the wet biomass?

Originally the price of biomass was high and the only revenue was electricity.

Here is a screen shot from an original Ebioss prospectus. It discusses the economics of heat sales from a cogeneration plant.
https://ibb.co/6HhgTbP

Here is the original document
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E26LGfm7mp6OcHrnvMvieS8IDHSCmSWn/view?usp=drivesdk

Based on 28kt production, a basket price of $900/ton and 2021 operating costs of $353/tonne, Tirupati could earn $15m gross profit from April 2023 to March 2024

https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1651854640378527744?t=KWPj96HC0Jb3lsZHc_rlMA&s=19

Screenshot of the 55% IRR and $363/tonne C1 costs for Mozambique.

https://ibb.co/fxcSF44

Q1 results from Syrah resources.
$668/tonne C1 cash cost.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597131-syrah-resources-limited-syaaf-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript

Big numbers for the capex required for Syrah resources to bring on an extra 45k of capacity with IRR of between 14% and 23%. (Capex = US$539m)

I see there is a 31st May 2024 deadline for production start otherwise the offtake agreement with Tesla can be cancelled?
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/syr/syrah-resources-limited/news/update-on-vidalia-offtake-agreement-2818682.html

Now it's hard to compare the two as Tirupati are not supplying battery anode 99.95% material which commands a much higher price premium.

The 2018 Mozambique feasability studies (completed by ASX Batery Minerals) forecast IRR of 55% and C1 costs of US$363/tonne.

Do Tirupati intend to spend money updating the BFS based on cheaper and leaner opex/capex? Or can they secure debt to expand operations in Mozambique from their offtake customers?

Basically, Tirupati are probably the lowest capex per tonne of graphite producer in the world.

This is important because, if graphite prices go up, they are the most profitable.

If graphite prices crash, they are the most resilient and will be the last producer to close.

In Madigascar, they have brought online 30k tonne of graphite per year selling at over $910 per tonne. The total Capex expenditure has been around £11m
https://ibb.co/5k4pqZS

If they had gone down the traditional PFS, DFS, BFS route then obtained financing, we would probably still only be producing 6k per year from the pilot scale operation.

The Mozambique mines are fully (95%) owned. At one of the sites, 50% of the capex has already been spent. What I find exciting is, how cheaply could Tirupati bring this plant online to 50ktpa? Originally, from the Bankable Feasability Study, the fully licenced and partly built Montepuez mine had a capex proce tag of $40m (a little over £30m)
https://ibb.co/sgxrcmX

Now if Tirupati can build a 30ktpa palnt for £11m, how cheaply can they build a 50ktpa higher grade graphite mine already 50% constructed? £15 to £20m maybe?

From Myles McG's report a few weeks ago, we can already see that Tirupati are the cheapest capital intensity ($/tonne) of the peer group.

http://www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/tirupati-graphite-valuation-analysis-05.04.2023-5.pdf

What I find really exciting is what the all in sustaining price per tonne will be once in full production.

Opex is quoted at $361/tonne for the first 10 years for Montepuez but this price could come down if Tirupati can build the mine cheaper with a simpler process, and besides, we just bought the whole Mozambique operation from BatteryMinerals Australia for a little over £6m? That's a huge discount to what they have already invested in Mozambique...

I'm really looking forward to this Twitter user completing a survey of graphite mining companies values as I'm suspecting Tirupati's values will be just off the chart value for money

https://twitter.com/_H00PZ_/status/1647030092860882945?t=eXBIhraNg9W-Sub-GgbScA&s=19

Here is a technical solution for removing residual metal wastes from ash

https://www.next-chemx.com/

Not that this should be an issue for eqtec as they pre sort the waste to remove metals for recycling.

Sigh...
Here is an OLD study. (Again).

Please read from page 36
https://wteinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Gasification-vs-Incineration.pdf

As gasification technology matures and when electricity prices increase, gasification beats incineration on every metric.

Also, more efficient, half the NOx per gram of waste, more complete combustion, less ash, less hazardous waste, ability to produce biofuels.

If eqtec sites are built on shovel ready sites, the costs come spiraling down. I think the France MDC is going to astonish us how profitable it will be. I am guessing an IRR above 30%. It is forecast to be 78% efficient.

Agricultural biochar is only possible from clean sources of biomass (preferably solids I believe)

Plastic can produce a carbon char but it will be too pulled for agricultural use. Anything nasty (rose cuttings?! Really!!!) Contaminated plastics, tyres, you don't gasify it in the absence of oxygen to produce buochar, you gasify it fully to reduce the ash content to below 5%.

It's a relationship between the product in and the products out. Clean agro waste with low impurities can be turned into biochar and heat and power. When power prices are up the plant can be changed into high power mode and therefor no biochar comes out.

Go back to the evening 31st March visiting host.

I debunked your notion that anaerobic digestion (which envitech are) is better than gasification.

Bio digestion is only suitable for soft biomass, grasses and fuel crops. Olive waste, wood, plastic is not suitable for anaerobic digestion. And gasification is faster, more versatile, larger number of feedstocks and more efficient. (Converts more carbon)

Hi again visitinghost.

This article doesn't really prove that eqtec in partnership wouldn't be economically viable today.

Reasons??

The prices of gas offtake are now much higher than in 2018. Renewable Natural Gas further sells at a premium.

The original Vesta technology was developed by amec Foster wheeler. Woodgroup took them over and has since developed it further and learned a few things.

The reference plant was using wood as a feedstock which is more expensive than the mixed "waste and biomass" feedstock which eqtec intend to use. There could even be gate fees available for the waste.

The reference plant furthermore may not have had such a high quality gas cleanup system as eqtec employ, or the full plant automation software developed by eqtec over the past 20 years and held under IP and patent which can ensure (with guarantees) that a plant is operational for over 86% of the year.

Here is that reference plant used in the study from item 11 in the article you posted
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/er.3758

Average volume 523k
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TGR.L/history?p=TGR.L

3.5m sold in an "orderly fashion" over time should not be felt

AIM companies must publish full year results up to 6 months after period end. This was extended to 9 months during covid and is now back to normal.

I suspect the 4 month rule is for main listed companies and not AIM

Hi DrJohn. You were not wrong. TGR are indeed producing 30kt a year of 97% graphite and aiming for 400kt per year graphite production. (8% of world demand by 2030) They also have access to a pilot plant which can increase this sellable product purity to 99.95% without using acid. This improves the price from current sale vale of $900 a tonne to $1700-$3000. (Today's prices)

The plants producing right now are processing 450kt 7% graphite content ore a year to produce 30kt product in Madagascar.

The Mozambique projects acquired 12 days ago will be funded from current Madagascar profits giving them access to a 12x larger resource at around 11% graphite content. Those projects are fully permitted and partly constructed.