Member Info for Andii

A three part tweet with graphics and a link to Myles McNulty's valuation report. His report includes a compelling investment case summarised towards the end which nicely presents reasoning for a current valuation of TGR far exceeding 200p.

https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1667423858318622720?t=C16UR1ZpGgL5gZktWN2_FQ&s=19

Below is a link to a graphic where I have put down some approximate forecasts for the next 12 months.

https://ibb.co/PGRk5db

The latest 6 month figures oct-march were calculated by subtracting figures from the interm results (april-sep) released in december from the full year unaudited trading results released in may which gives a nice side by side 6 month break down of the improving economics.

800k shares traded so far.

Dummy quotes

41.4p for 100k, 47.91p for 200k

Https://blackrockmining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/SydneyMiningClubInvestorPresentation05May23.pdf

Blackrock mining pre production - still awaiting funding.

Module 1 will cost

Capex US$182m

Production from module1 = 89ktpa+

Construction time 20 months.

C1 (production) cost = $466/tonne

Basket made up of 23% Jumbo, 36% Large, 9% Medium, 32% Small

https://tirupatigraphite.co.uk/images/Corporate%20Presentations/Q4-2022-CORP%20Presentation%20Final.pdf

Tirupati producing and forecast Ebitda positive current year

Madagascar has 2 projects online

Total Capex spent = £13m

Currently producing 30ktpa

Additional production increase of 54ktpa by end of 2024 estimated £10m capex

Production cost forecast $359/tonne (latest figure was $293 for the last 6 months)

Basket price $910-935 made up of (Sahamamy)50% Jumbo, 35% Large and 15% Small Flakes

https://www.northerngraphite.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf

Currently producing 15ktpa (50ktpa planned 2025)

Additional production across various assets planned. Ontario project capex $112m for 40ktpa plant

Current production cost USD$1033/tonne

Basket price USD$1,572/tonne

........

"Lowest operating costs outside of China, possibly in the world"

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1014474/tirupati-graphite-targets-80-000-tonnes-capacity-for-2024-following-strong-showing-in-2023-1014474.html

Volume yesterday was 1.8m. Quote to buy 200k right now is 47.1p

The free float is so small here, we don't need many buys to force this to 45p

Q2 technically ends end of September.

We got Q4 (jan-march) figures on the 4th April so might get a april-june production quote around 4th July with a new target for july-september.

Cash burn is over. £3m spent on earth moving equipment. Admin costs came down 1h of 2023 compared to 2h 2022.

£3m spent on M&A (some of which is in escro at th3 bank)

What else is to spend money on now that isn't value add?

Future planned (Croatia MDC) has a papermill next door. Cheap feedstock and a heat customer right next door.

Banks won't be happy until biochar is certified sorry***

What we know....

Eqtec are still quite a small team. Handing over of Italy will involve releasing staff and losing out on staff wages which can likely be invoiced to the SPV. Where will these staff go next? Croatia MDC. So until Croatia MDC is further financed its maybe in eqtecs interest to keep Italy under handover.

Italy MDC refinance. Not possible until the banks are happy. Banks won't be happy until the biomass is certified and long term sales contracts are in place. Is there a delay with certification or sales contract being nailed down?

We are leaving winter approaching summer. Temperatures, moisture content and biomass prices are in flux. Do they need to stabilise and teach the new operations team how to handle dry biomass?

Italy MDC was budgeted and constructed/commissioned during covid when supply chain and compdity prices went crazy. Italy MDC doesn't fully utilise the heat capacity. Figure planted (Croatia MDC) are more efficient and therefore long term profitable. If Italy was commissioned today the cost and timeline would be much less/shorter. Vistinghost, why do you pick the downside and ignore the upside? (Huge energy/utility companies willing to collaborate and pay for plants upfront further improving margins due to no debt)

Dummy quotes

36.34p for 30k shares, 36.6p 40k to 60k, 37p for 70k, 38.4p for 80k

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1016939/today-s-market-view-andrada-mining-greatland-gold-and-more-1016939.html

China to extend EV tax exemption policy to boost expanding industry

CCTV reported over the weekend that China is planning to extend and optimise its NEV purchase tax exemption policy.

The tax exemption policy was set to expire this year, with Bloomberg suggesting the policy may be extended for another four years.

The Government body is also looking to boost charging infrastructure and battery recycling systems.

From 13 minutes in, the paying of dividends discussed

https://youtu.be/vqlYIfQkJ7k

Yesterday's RNS

Isabel de Salis joins the team.

Here is the company she founded in 2001

https://www.stbridespartners.co.uk/#about

Https://ibb.co/7GjycZ4

Http://www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/tirupati-graphite-valuation-analysis-05.04.2023-5.pdf

https://ibb.co/W3Z64w4

No more cash raises required. £10m free cash flow potential this year

36.89p for 1k to 10k, 37.4p for 17k shares and above

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf9sfgEVLUY

Dr Palash Gangopadhyay of Urbix - "we are bringing that cost anywhere between one 50th and one 100 times. That not only brings down the cost for us, but it also makes the battery a lot more environmentally conscious and green"

Urbix’s CSPG graphite is processed using just 10 per cent of the energy, 6 per cent of the acid, 7 per cent of the time and double the yield compared to existing processes.

Who is buying the graphite from Tirupati in the UK? Could it be ending up at Urbix?

https://connectedenergysolutions.co.uk/urbix-announces-uk-entity-as-it-starts-expansion-into-europe/

They are already interested in Tirupati's Mozambique product.

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/battery-minerals-graphite-processing-jv/

58 days into the 2024 financial year. Last updates indicate we may be nearing full production capacity. so we *could* be 63% of the way though Q1 target of 6500t tonnes (upper estimate) = 4142 tonnes x £752(per tonne sales price)

= £3.1m.

They also had 900t stockpiled so depending if they are selling or stockpiling, this figure could be +/- say ~20%

So we just passed the total revenue figures for last year in under 58 days.

The (very bare) Tirupati graphite US and Canadian message board

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=tgrhf&postid=35466957