Member Info for Andii

Looks like there is next to zero volume on the US exchange for Tirupati..

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TGRHF?p=TGRHF&.tsrc=fin-srch

Shame, as companies involved in EV's might do quite well in the US today based on yesterdays news from Tesla and Ford to share Teslas charging points

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/tesla-elon-musk-ford-jim-farley-ev-twitter-spaces-talk.html

Here is the RNS on the US listing.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/commencement-of-trading-on-the-otcqx-best-market-bvlsyl5jsechn5z.html

Tirupati's two main projects with 650ktpa ore capacity and 30ktpa 97% graphite output now approaching full production. All Capex and Acquisition activities now complete so margins this current financial year should be much better. We are now most likely EBITDA positive by a comfortable margin.

Here are time-lapse videos of the two Madagascar projects from space.

https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1661247098438975496?s=20

Https://youtu.be/BJa_ROzK3g0

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1661653483060178947?t=VWdcWsuSfaeS7-4uvtr7Sg&s=19

Https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/which-asx-graphite-stock-offers-the-best-value

Tirupati get a small mention @1hour15 on this podcast

https://twitter.com/wheeliedealer/status/1660174706471837698?t=FtFL0Hh09W424hzIv4Maug&s=19

One of their guests next friday is Gervais Williams, fund manager at Premier Miton who own just over 4% of Tirupati.

Contaminated plastic with high gate fees, and mixed waste that is expensive to sort*

The video you show is using pyrolysis, an already widely used technology. Using a wood fire as a heat source too. From a chemical engineering point of view, they are using up one resource to create another. I wonder where it would fair on this list https://ibb.co/X8gfJK3 actually, I wonder how much extra petrol could be produced by an eqtec plant mixing the plastic and wood together? Oh wait, isn't that what they are doing at MDC France for a fraction of the price of a new build with the added bonus of a municipal heating network already installed!

"A pyrolysis based biorefinery can be developed to treat a range of biomass waste and plastic waste to produce liquid and gas fuels, energy, biochar, and other higher value chemicals using an integrated approach. The integrated approach helps to achieve maximum economic and environmental benefits with minimal waste production. There are many challenges and room for improvement in pyrolysis-based biorefineries, that need to be addressed and optimized to ensure maximum benefits. Although pyrolysis oil holds more energy than coal and some other fuels, pyrolysis itself is an energy-intensive process, and the oil product requires more energy to be refined (Inman, 2012). This means that pyrolysis oil may not be much better than conventional diesel or other fossil-based fuels in terms of GHG emissions"

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2019.00027/full#:~:text=Pyrolysis%20is%20a%20common%20technique,solid%2C%20liquid%20and%20gaseous%20fuels.

Reposting for anyone new coming to the board.

User Hoopz on twitter carried out an analysis of most of the Ex China graphite miners

https://twitter.com/_H00PZ_/status/1655845666348994560?t=-DSUMG9fSyqZDiyS7nvItw&s=19

And Myles McNulty completed a report showing the undervalued status of TGR

http://www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/tirupati-graphite-valuation-analysis-05.04.2023-5.pdf

Maybe a 50% resource/reserve upgrade for Madagascar?

RNS 8th September

Quote from AB on telegram:

"A quick read of the RNS explains Andy - these are mining licenses which the company is also carrying out evaluation work on as part of DD as mentioned by the studies in the RNS - company states it expects these new areas to add resources able to produce in 2/3x18,000tpa modules, so 36/54,000tpa on top of the 84,000tpa current target across Vatomina+Sahamamy which could result in a lower capacity estimate of 120,000tpa In Madagascar with these areas"

Some official upgrade of the figures for the two Mozambique assets? If the Capex is lower and the Opex is lower than the existing feasability studies, and Tirupati can recover more graphite at a higher purity, surely the NPV will increase.

An update on the TSG transaction? A positive resolution would give an instant boost to the share price.

On a seperate issue, I was perplexed by words from Shishir Poddar on twitter regarding the non-exec selling shares.

"Nothing to do with the Company, first time any Director or concert party have sold, Hemant has some personal family needs at this time."

My comment - does this indicate the directors are not being paid very much and he maybe wants a new car or has bills to pay. Maybe has started living beyond his means in anticipation of the dividend! I think Tirupati has 390 employees so £2m admin costs per year is actually not excessive, especially when Shishir gets about 1/3 of that.

Then this next tweet

"Board together hold nearly 40% significant skin in the game I am barred from buying under take over rules management relentless priority to turn the Company to earning building business at industry lowest investments of time and money all speak of its commitment @Tirupatiuk #TGR"

So I'm wondering if Shishir can't buy shares after a family member sold shares (just under 0.1% of the total shares), what are the takeover thresholds and what % are they collectively at? Was this a regulatory forced sale? New audit rules in force now for UK listed companies. Do we think we will need to wait until the last minute again for the full year results or could they be compiled and audited in quick order?

Here is an updated ownership table from around the of 1st January.

https://ibb.co/9wS3gZD

Https://twitter.com/ShishirPoddar/status/1658054090646233088?t=xtp4RhXhMEyAgoRWMydP5w&s=19

Tirupati built 30ktpa of production capacity in Madagascar across two assets for a Capex of £13m ($16m)

In Mozambique, at the Montepuez project, to build a 50ktpa mine and processing plant, they estimate total capex of $52m, of which $13m already spent.

https://www.batteryminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Increase-in-Montepuez-Graphite-Reserve-1.pdf

If Tirupati can bring online 30ktpa in Mozambique at TWO locations for a capex of $16m, the maths says 50ktpa should cost $26m. If $13m has already been spent, final capex figures could be really impressive. Myles McNulty thinks $25-35m.

OPEX - as mentioned in the previous post - If Tirupati are claiming to potentially be the worlds lowest Opex, i'm sure there are quite substantial savings to be made here.

"In July 2021, the Tirupati Graphene & Mintech Research Centre ("TGMRC") established a pilot scale version of its unique Column Flotation System ("CFS") which it developed for use across the Company's primary and downstream specialty graphite production plants."

*reduced power consumption by 40%

*reduced number of flotation stages

*reduced wear, maintenance and downtime

From the advanced feasibility study

"BAT intends to construct a diesel fired power station to supply power for the plant and the accommodation village. Electrical power supply will be generated on site by six of 1.4MW high speed diesel generators for distribution"

With 40% less power, they only need 4 generators not 6.

From the other Mozambique mine, Balama central, the feasability study quotes power costs as 16-18.5% of Opex.

https://minedocs.com/17/BalamaCentral_News_Feasibiblity_Study_12122018.pdf

So reducing power by 40% reduces Opex by 6.4 to 7.4% (Bringing down C1 cost from $360/t to $333-337/t)

Other savings from the simpler process will result in further reductions in Opex, could sub $300/t be possible?

I'm not sure if they will incorporate an island pre-concentrate system at Montepuez, it's hard to determine the distance from pit to plant from the feasibility studies. Vatomina and Montepuez will be very different in layout and the ore is 11% grade not 4% grade so ore moving costs are probably 30% what they are in Madagascar. It would also depend on a source of green electricity and water to turn ore into slurry. Syrah are installing solar at their plant next door.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/transformational-flake-graphite-processing-tech-qwe0ubos3838a78.html

o reduce power consumption during the flotation stage of the process by c.40%;

o eliminate corrosion and wear in flotation thereby reducing maintenance, costs and production downtimes; and

o reduce the number of processing/floatation stages required to achieve desired graphite purity levels thereby lowering overall costs of production.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/vatomina-preconcentrate-infrastructure-update-5cf94rp2w3y9t8n.html

· The construction and relocation of the first leg of Vatomina's 9,000 ton per annum plant was initiated in mid July 2022. This has now been completed and the preconcentrate and final concentrate plant recommissioned and synchronised in operation.

· As a result, the previous requirement for the transport of c.250,000 tons of ore per annum to the plant has been replaced by the pumping of c.30,000 tons per annum of 'pre concentrate' in slurry form to the main processing plant, eliminating reliance on roads and ore transport vehicles.

· The elimination of the transportation of ore and the transformation to the preconcentrate concept is expected to result in:

o a reduction of c.75,000 litres of diesel annually for the 9,000 tons Vatomina plant;

o a reduction in other costs related to the operation of the ore transport fleet estimated to be equivalent to the cost of diesel consumption saved;

o elimination of the necessity for building a high-cost metalled road from the mine areas to the main processing plant; and

o the possibility to enhance capacity of the Vatomina current facility to 18,000 tons per annum by installation of a second preconcentrate plant with limited additions in the mining fleet and main processing plant, which the Company is currently assessing.

The Company will be incorporating the new CFS in its upcoming capacity expansion projects replacing three out of four flotation stages. This can be achieved without changing the planned timelines and is expected to deliver significant commercial and operational improvements, further strengthening the Company's status as a lowest cost quartile producer of natural flake graphite.

"the reduced transportation requirement will also reduce emissions from operations, supporting Tirupati's target to reach net-zero in both processing and mining. This is in line with the Company's aim to become the first net-zero emissions and zero-waste producer of flake graphite."

Urbix are the company doing the processing into battery grade material. Slight reshuffle during covid and still at the pilot scale but some interesting g reading below

https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/urbix-to-provide-30-of-graphite-needs-for-electric-vehicles/

Compared with conventional methods, Urbix processing requires just 10% of the energy, 6% of the acid, and 7% of the time. With fewer resources and less time, the company is even capable of doubling the automotive industry standard yield to over 70%. Its processing can be used on raw graphite from anywhere in the world, meaning users will not need to depend on China.

https://urbixresources.com/leading-u-s-graphite-companies-asbury-carbons-and-urbix-resources-collaborate/

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Kv3ziubSx_wJ:https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2023/03/01/firms-search-for-greener-supplies-of-graphite-for-ev-batteries&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=ms-android-samsung-ss

Maybe a new thread?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6vnU3JuNVE

Future of diesel and hydrogen and in the future electric flight^^

Tirupati can process all flake sizes at the Montepuez mine into 99.95% battery grade material for capex of $10m per 25ktpa

Compare this to Syrah resources plant which has a capex of $593m for 45ktpa

And all of the above at "industry leading graphite recovery" & "industry leading low capex"

99.95% spherical graphite currently selling for $4000-6000/tonne

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1633020392053915649?t=kFv5aTpAZzkVR7uYI9FkVQ&s=19

Syrah resources Q1 basket price $636/t

C1 cost $668

They plan to cut back production as they have stockpiles now.

https://www.datocms-assets.com/65260/1682640413-syr_march_2023_quarterly_activities_presentation.pdf

See table of Syrah vs Tirupati vs Nothern Graphite, the three ex china producers

https://ibb.co/4RcSxV8

Syrah resources need their US plant online which will refine 99.95% graphite - that is how they will become profitable. They need the plant online to start taking some of their extra small fines graphite. The funding is still not in place yet.

Tirupati's basket of graphite is all large grade so higher basket price than Syrah resources.

The air doesn't contain enough CO2 to enter into the emissions profile of a H2 combustion engine.

Carbon dioxide content in air = 0.04%

There will be more carbon comes from the small amount of oil burned. An average american car engine burns about 1litre of oil every 3000miles.

Caterpillar I think it was has a nice video on their new range of hydrogen combustion engines. I wasn't convinced by the engines previously but they claim to have reduced the NOX emissions significantly so that they will be below that of traditional diesel, and modern diesel engines are quite efficient. Whether they have done this with intercoolers or gas recycle, or a combination of both as those are both good methods to reduce NOX emissions from an engine.

Still not sold on the infostructure costs, energy losses, handling complexities of hydrogen. Converting syngas into LPG and converting existing engines to LPG would be far better in my opinion until they develop batteries with 750-1000kwh/kg capacity. I think they are almost at 500kwh/kg now. Teslas I think are about 250kwh/kg.

A 15mpg lorry doing 100k miles a year could save £13k a year on fuel bills.

https://www.drivelpg.co.uk/about-autogas/savings-calculator/

LPG is cheaper, easy to store, existing infostructure exists, very low on sulphur, lower CO" and NOX than both petrol and diesel.

https://www.dynamicassetrecovery.com/whats-best-lpg-petrol-or-diesel

Based on yesterdays figures, calculatable values for the second half of the last financial year (with full production rates only being achieved in the final month..) and projecting them forward to the current financial year (april - march)

Production 28,000 out of 30ktpa capacity (with the potential for a further 6000tpa additional capacity)

Basket price $941/t

Production cost $295/t (due to come down with extra hydro power)

Lets assume they make 6.5kt 1Q, 7kt 2Q, 7.5kt3Q then 9ktQ4 (including extra 6ktpa capacity upgrade)

=30kt, at todays basket price = $28.2m revenue

@ $295/t cost = $19.38m gross profit

Admin fees $3m? Tax deductions? Royalties? There are no debts

$15m net profit this FY year?

Here is a screenshot showing the production and revenue figures for the past four 6month periods, accurate as far as I am aware except the last figure of £500 gross margin per MT, wasn't sure how to calculate that

https://ibb.co/W3Z64w4

4770t produced last year*

I did some further number-crunching, would be very grateful if anyone could double check.

The average basket price achieved from october to march was $948/tonne (at todays $/£ exchange rate)

The average cost per Metric Tonne of graphite produced was $295/tonne

Added to this they only sold 3982t out of 4770t produced so now have an 800t stockpile ready to sell.

(They sold 950t in the whole of 1H 2022 and the share price then was 68p)

4770t sold last year and the target for this year (which we are 40 days into already) is up to or maybe just over 30,000t

And the cost per tonne of production is forecast to come down further as more green electricity capacity is brough online (with grants available for this according to the video)