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Eh. My reminder had a good timing, I guess.

We've touched upon this previously, but I want to discuss once more after the following article has been forwarded on Twitter, about a testing crunch in the USA : https://www.ft.com/content/4c9b4ae0-0559-4fe2-8806-53c6a8e3ab3a

From what I gather, their bottleneck issues have less to do with the tests, and more with the instruments ; hence the week-long turnaround.
If the USA is to double its testing capacity, as suggested by intervewed experts, it means that more instruments will have to be used ; either by putting to contribution those which might still be dormant, and/or by buying new ones.

Capacity are also constraints by the lack of trained personnel. PCR testing ain't rocket science, but it still requires method and attention.

Thus - and subject to Graham's push - NCYT could probably make a non-trivial amount on money on the US market alone for its Q16 and Q32 machines. We are all focused on how many millions of tests will be sold, but the income generated by the machines could as well boost the share price.

The upcoming promo videos should enlighten us about the extent of this revenue stream.

Meanwhile, if anyone is in touch with Graham (VanV, GGG ?), it might be useful to tell him in passing that we're hoping to see some sales figures *regarding the instruments*.
And now that I think about it, perhaps this is a less "sensitive" matter (*), which might be subject to some RNS in the future... ?

(*) Graham apparently conveyed the idea that he doesn't release test sales figures as he wants to keep a low profile, due to governmental customers having public relations troubles.
(Read on a Twitter screenshot)

Why didn't you post your question in the very thread that Shaun has opened ?

Why make another yet another thread instead of cleaning up the forum and posting in the most relevant place ?

By the way, as per Optigene's website, their kits have now obtained the CE mark.
And the "COVID-19_Direct RT-LAMP KIT-500" test doesn't need an RNA extractor.

Quickdraw18 : nice to see you're back.

Yes, as we discussed a few weeks back, a manufacturing contract of sorts is the most plausible outcome. Perhaps along with the acquisition of a stake in Optigene. A JV, as suggested by Daveri, could also make sense.

In general, though, I don't think Optigene would have much trouble raising capital for the launch of a game-changing product. If needed, I'm sure the Bri'ish gubmint could chip in.
These are not normal times, remember.

It's nice to dream. But why would a company with a successful saliva test want to be bought out, when they could make that much money in a mere couple of months ?

*paris now grün

WHY DO YOU WRITE IN CAPS

RBM : Just to be clear, I too would love for a takeover offer soon, at a decent price.
One figure floated was around 7€. Nothing fancy but at this point I'd welcome such an offer.

In the meantime, it's worth looking at other strategies, such as that of a buyout.
Hopefully more people will investigate this kind of outcome.

Œuf corse we over the pond are devastated bruv.

RBM : This is because I'm not emotionally attached to a takeover (quickest and easiest way to make a profit innit), and I have realised that the concept of a buyout is no less sound than the arguments of the people drooling over dat takeover have laid out (e.g. being taken over buy a big pharma... which already produces its own array of tests).

Do you absolutely want a name ? Okay I'll give you a name : Biosynex.
Diagnostics test maker with a good marketshare in France, many products that NCYT doesn't offer (including point of care tests, drug tests, pregnancy tests...), and only valued at 82m€ as of today.

Would NCYT be dying to buy them out, or at least buy a significant stake in their business ?
I can't say for sure, but by the look of it, it seems quite sensible to have a proper gander at that company.

RBM : it all depends on the terms of the operation. A well-fitting buyout will create more value than a poorly agreed takeover.

Ask Qiagen shareholders how they feel about their takeover terms right now.

As for who NCYT should buy out : I don't know. As I said, I haven't really researched this topic. But I'm mentionning it because it seems at least as much likely as a takeover, if not more.

At any rate, the usual criteria will apply : look for good assets, belonging to an undervalued or badly managed company. Or for a fairlyvalued company with a strong presence in complementary markets.

IIRC - but I had only read that in passing - NCYT only bought a chunk of ODX's business back then. Dunno if that's for a lack of interest in the rest, or for sheer lack of opportunity (i.e. ODX would sell other stuff).

Now I'm not sure if it'd make sense for NCYT to combine its operations with the rest of ODX's business. Or maybe it does, but ODX could be finicky regarding the terms of the combination (JV, buyout...).

What I'm expecting is :

1) A fitting buyout would increase the share price.

2) A buyout would not take place before the end of 2020 or even end of 2021.
This is because both NCYT and prospective targets got their hands full with the WuFlu, and also because due diligence takes a long time. However I have no doubts that Graham already has potential suitors in the back of his mind.

3) Don't discount French companies as buyout or JV targets.
There are plenty of French diagnostics companies, and one shouldn't lose sight of the fact that NCYT itself is a French company : it makes mergers all the more easier.

Obviously he wouldn't mention any possible takeover, not even talks that've taken place. It's always too sensitive, not even on a legal aspect, just commercially. That's covered in my Note 1.

My central point is that NCYT already has a history of buying out other companies, and Graham could well do it again. It'd be healthier to focus on this.

Some people mentionned ODX earlier. I haven't looked into it ; neither from a commercial nor a financial perspective.

Graham has repeatedly mentionned external growth as a means to increase the company's market share, so those who like to speculate should start to ponder about which companies could be good takeover targets *for NCYT*.

Note 1 : Graham didn't mention NCYT being acquired by some other company, but this doesn't mean such a possibility should be ruled out.

Note 2 : It is entirely possible to both take-over *and* be taken over, successively.

Yep, it's starting to be very irritating.

I have a lot of patience when it comes to random fluctuations, but NOT when the SP drops right after a positive RNS.

Gettin real tired of this bullscheisse innit. Set up an SP alert @ 5€ till Dezember, will try not to read NCYT-related forums till then.

Œuf corse that's still positive : more means of using our test = more applications = more potential sales.

Especially when it comes to airports. Big potential market where passengers probably wouldn't want to endure a nose swab, but would be okay with some fiddling in their mouths.

Actually it's not a proper review, just a classic, lazy journo re-hash of NCYT's RNS.

Then it's not a new product, but an additional qualification for an existing product (saliva sample).

Good thread Matt.

I too have been surprised by the sales, and even more by the average selling price.
25m€ worth of sales for June, assuming the output was 8m tests, that works out at roughly 3€ per test.

But are we even sure that this sales figure covers the whole production output ?
Or that they did reach their production target of 8m tests per month (let alone 10m) ?