RE: share buyback program20 Aug 2020 00:12
@hants : Bruv, the product pitched by Avacta should be very successful thanks to its convenience, assuming it holds its promises in terms of accuracy.
However there are a few parameters that people enamoured with that share, which is perfect on paper, don't seem to take much into account :^)
Off the top of my head, I can think of the following factors which could rain on your parade :
1) Production capacity
If you can't scale up properly, you can't make as much money as your market projections led you to hope.
I believe a non-trivial number of OEMs are tied by contracts to make PCR tests. That's production capability you can't make use of. (And that's assuming working capital won't be an issue either).
2) Existing contracts for PCR tests
They can cover multiple months of production. You can't snap up that market share anymore.
3) Market entry timing
Avacta will be entering the corona test field pretty late.
Your biggest competitor won't even be PCR tests at this point... but vaccines. Good luck with that.
All the testing business will suffer from the mere announcements of semi-successful Phase III. Remember that many millions of doses have already bought in advance by governments. Most people will (wrongly) picture receiving their free dose and enjoy a normal life straight away.
But, at least, Novacyt has already secured millions in the bank. We're pretty chill.
(That's admittedly less an issue for you than for GDR, the poor guys).
4) Pricing
The wholesale price per unit of a PCR test is much less than 15£.
Sure you have to add other costs, notably that of a lab technician. However, quicker, high-throughput PCR saliva tests are now available. I believe the final bill is competitive with Avacta's projected prices.