Member Info for allah4uk

And I'm not getting your point either, Morningsun.

Yes many corona stocks are dubious, whereas Novacyt is a solid business.
But this doesn't mean jack if the market has decided that corona stocks aren't fashionable anymore - all of them will see their SP drop regardless of their intrisinc value.

And the reaction of the governments to the early availability of a vaccine will be a driving force as regards to the SP. If they opt to buy billions of doses of even a semi-failed vaccine, this will necessarily drive down corona stocks - including ours.

That's the point I'm making, which is pretty straightforward, and I don't understand either how this cannot be comprehended. I suspect it is being deflected by powerful rose-tinted glasses.

GGG, the Oxford vaccine is controversial, but regardless Astrazeneca is saying they're readying 2 billion doses for September. Not 2 million, 2 billion.

What does that mean ? It means that, whether it works well or not, as long as it's got some sort of positive effect, governments will order it.
This, in turn, should have a massive effects on PCR test orders, as well as on the share price.
I'm not saying everything will stop all of a sudden for us, because it won't, but the demand will be noticeably reduced.

Just take a look at corona shares in the last few weeks. They've all dropped at the same time as people were re-allowed outdoors.
That's not rational, but it's how market works.
Expect the same when a vaccine is announced and cleared for distribution.

Parkez, as a shareholder and not-at-risk person, not getting a vaccine before 5 years have passed is fine by me.
But I don't believe that's how things will go. At all.
Pharma companies and governments alike are rushing to get something on the market, so this will happen sooner than later.

parkez, I'm with you till the 2020 estimates part.

As for the rest, I think it IS unreasonable to expect the same amount of revenue for 2021, given the first vaccine could be launched in September... 2020.

My guess is that, not only will it present PD's coronavirus test, it'll also serve to showcase its use as part of a mobile testing kit.

This is especially important in places where infrastructure isn't well-developed, like... Southern America.

gggg21 @ 10h44 : who is "they" ?

Surfie1961 : I don't know about the share, but the COMPANY sure is going one way - up.

Bramley1967 : What some people we ****ed with, is that the RNS didn't contain more info on the sales, including some obvious ones (e.g. Egypt) which could have been released.

But small investors have a tendency to whine anyway, on both sides of the pond.

Great contribution gggg21, especially the part of the mastermix which could be used with other manufacturers' tests, which I didn't realise.
This holds a lot of potential in terms of direct sales or licencing.
But Novacyt will also have to "sell it to the shareholdes", in order for the SP to take this into account. That's what I'm fearing : that people will be yet again fixated on minor issues (e.g. the recurring problem of selling in France) instead of remarking the potential for *other* sales.

About the q16/32 instruments, I think they'll be bought primarily by governmental bodies, and maybe a few bluechip companies who can afford to hire a testing team. Because let's not forget that one needs to undergo training in order to operate these machines.
But anyway, yes, they'll be another revenue stream. In fact, I seem to recall that Novacyt has already commented about witnessing a surge in instrument sales.

Nah, it was already bad back then.

"When they both took an antibody test earlier this month, Raje’s husband showed a high level of antibodies to the virus, while Raje appeared to have no response at all, something she found hard to comprehend."

So even if you don't have antibodies, you may still have the virus and be contagious.

Looks like PCR test ain't be goin' away anytime soon.

As said, it's vert, not bleu.

"I am comfortable here but my expectations have withered and i cannot understand why."

I think it's because we haven't gotten a sales RNS in a (relatively) long time. Which has caused many to lose faith.

All I can say is : hold on till the next RNS fam, and see how you feel then. If your faith hasn't been rekindled, then sell a chunk of your shares.

Plus, antibody tests will remain complementary to antigen tests ; although they'll mean antigen tests will lose the monopoly they enjoy right now.

What we'll have to pay attention to is a : quick, reliable, self-administered and cheap antigen test.
This is a very tough combination to crack. See Intermed's test - which checks pretty much everything listed above... except its reliability is rubbish.

Yes JDC, it's mentionned in the 14th May RNS (see also Simple00's post as to what it looks like) :

"Mobile COVID-19 testing is being evaluated using the Company's q16 instrument combined with its ExsigTM Direct reagent and genesig® COVID-19 test. Trials in clinical laboratories are expected to complete in June 2020 and this mini-laboratory combination may be used in remote locations, such as care homes."

Interestingly, I had sent them an email about mobile testing back in April, because it's also being trialed by a French hospital.

What we don't know yet, and thus would be worth asking, is :

1) Could saliva be used instead of nasal swabs ?
Research shows it could be even better : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067835v1
And Japan greenlit it : https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/12/national/science-health/japan-ok-coronavirus-pcr-tests-using-saliva-early-month/
This could save time/money/pain for the doctors and patients involved.

2) Will the new Exsig formula make the test easy enough to handle, that someone who's not a certified lab technician, but has a decent background in biology, could quickly learn how to process the samples and deliver the results ? (With the scenario of using the q16 instrument, part of the mobile kit)
-> This would allow a doctor, or a biology graduate, to be in charge of the test processing - and bypassing the need to send the samples to an external lab.
It's important, because the 3-day turnaround you see on Rightangled, isn't due to the RT-PCR method per se (those take around 1h). It's due to the lengthy process of sending the samples through mail, then getting it into the lab, where there's a queue for many other tests sent by different clients, then processing the samples, then delivering the results.
So the closer to the client you move the instrument, the quicker the results will be delivered.
And to make that move possible, the hardware needs to be compact enough, and the tests simple enough to manipulate.

3) Can the mobile kit be rented ?
The price of a q16 instrument is roughly 5000£. For my understanding, that's pretty well-priced.
However for a prospective client who's unsure about its longer-term needs with regards to testing, that may seem steep. So renting could allay this concern.
(There's also the possibility of sharing the price across the clients, e.g. 5 GP practices buying one instrument, that 1000£ per practice : certainly doable. But again that's dependent on how the clients would be organised, what kind of workflow they'd face).

Nice find. Here's the manufacturer's website : https://www.intermed.be/en/professional-products/laboratory-diagnostics/serology-amp-virology/rapid-test/coris-covid-19-ag-respi-strip.html

The manufacturer claims "100% specificity", which is confirmed by the study (on their 100-ish samples). So that test can tell if you don't have the virus ; when there's indeed no trace of it.

Problem is : it will also tell you that you don't have the virus... when it's in fact present, but in lower quantities. It's not sensitive enough to pick it up, so will show a "false negative" result.

And false negatives are exactly what medical professionals would want to avoid.

Also :
"With the aim of gaining sensitivity, we ultracentrifuged 24 discordant samples with positive result in RT-qPCR but negative antigen rapid test. Only two of the 24 samples were very weak positive with the COVID-19 Ag rapid test performed on centrifuged material."
-> Goes on to show that centrifuging, i.e. using an instrument, is an essential part of obtaining fine-grained results.

It really depends who your clients/patients are, and how they intend to function.

Perhaps several GP practices located in the same area could pool and share a single, small PCR instrument like the q16 ? (Maybe renting it could also be an option ? That, plus a one-day training for the operator).

You should contact Primerdesign again, and see if the mobile testing kit they intend to release from next month onwards (Exsig tests + q16) could fit your needs. Even better if it could work reliably with samples taken from saliva instead of a deep nose/throat swab.

Smokie : the share price of our investment has dropped - not its intrisinct value.

A crucial detail which explains why many are faithful to this company.

Rollout of Exsig in June, IIRC.

Goed find, Hypermarlin.

"handheld reader that provides results within 75 minutes"
"The development team at Imperial College London"
"The next step is to make it available for people to buy at £40 for home use"

-> That's not us. But with Exsig and the q16, we're certainly competitive in terms of processing time and portability. (Also in terms of costs, for mass use in hospitals).

That's arguable. It's often used when referring to the USA, but the euphemistic expression originally points to a swathe of water between two patches of land.

Which is exactly the case here.