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Disappointed ... that nobody got my brilliant Nelson reference, lol

Disappointed

As requested:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-25th-feb-1st-march-2019

Thanks for all the recommendations guys - one in the eye for Nelson I think.

okay 7pm it is then. It would be great to get precisely 111 recommendations to show Mr Nelson111 just what he is up against

Good find Sloppy - of course thanks to BBN's multiple efforts:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-your-time-is-coming-336
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-your-time-has-now-arrived-355

we here have known about this for months. It is good that the rest of the world is catching up now.

Disappointed that we've not been able to make the full 100 recommendations for the original suggestion of last week's trading analysis published later today.

Actually we can work out how big this underestimation is as the esmap paper helpfully indicates that it is 40MW battery for the Sere Wind farm, 260MW for the (415+676) 1091MW of the REIPP projects and another 60MW for an unspecified set of Eskom PV farms.

If we again suppose that 50% of the battery are going into substations and 50% are going into specific renewables sites, then battery storage of 720MWh is applied over 1.251 GW (36%) of the total complement of 3.5GW of existing PV and Wind (I ignore the Concentrating Solar Power, CSP, plants as these have their own thermal energy storage systems as a necessary integral part of the design).

Thus SA's 1.25 GW of mixed renewables needs around 0.72GWh battery storage. In 2030 when SA renewables are 20 GW they will need 16 times as much battery storage.

This would be 11.5 GWh, which might use some 57,500 tonnes of Vanadium.

All just for South Africa's grid of course.

Note - my assumption of 720MWh per 3.8GW of renewables generation capacity is potentially a huge underestimation - it assumes that EVERY single one of the existing renewables projects is given is maximum battery complement by the BESS project. If only a fraction of the existing renewables plants are covered by BESS then the amount of battery storage per GW of renewables generation could be many times higher.

Furthermore.... This is just the start.

2018 Renewables is coming in around 3.8GW generation. The proposed Integrated Resource Plan ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/draft-irp-2018-introduction-reaction-289 ) is set to increase this by more than 425% (to 20GW) by 2030, and this is considered conservative, with calls for renewables supply to be introduced even faster than this.

If we assume that half of the 1440MWh batteries in the BESS project are for substation type load balancing, as opposed to locally mitigating intermittency of renewables then that still leave 720MWh per every 3.8GW of renewables generation. If we assume that zero further batteries are introduced for substation load balancing this gives an absolute minimum of 4.5GWh of battery storage by 2030.

If this was all produced by VRFB battery storage then that would require around 22,500 Tonnes of Vanadium.

Just for South Africa

Richken and others, here's the comparison between the initial publication (referenced in the TBP article here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339 ) and the new article (ESMAP) just discovered by Nick.

Northern Cape. original 7 sites: esmap shows 6
Western Caoe: original 24 sites, esmap shows 17
Eastern Cape: original 2 sites, esmap shows 2
Kwazulu-Natal, original 14 sites, esmap shows 4

Totals origina,l for phase 1 (800MWh) 47 sites, esmap only really shows 29 - some evidently may be too close to distinguish

In the esmap document phase 1 corresponds to the 200MW expected and seems to cover the Sere Wind Farm in the Western Cape plus (some of the) 42 of the REIPPP Round 4 projects. What may not have been represented on page 3 of the esmap presentation is that it looks like a large number of batteries in phase 1 are getting put into substations in the Capetown region.

As Mikhail has often pointed out, batteries are not only for dealing with renewables - they can be a very useful way of avoiding to have to build new transmission lines or even power stations. One of the unusual things about the SA grid, which you can see in the map, is that most of the thermal coal generation is concentrated around Johannesburg/Pretoria, where the coal mines and traditional heavy industry is located, and then there is series of long transmission line that have to run down the middle of the country to try and get electricity to the Cape region.

Put simply putting batteries around capetown allows these to by charged up overnight, or during the peak of PV generation in the middle of the day, and then discharged during the morning and evening peak of consumption. This time shifting not only means you don't need to build so many new power stations AND you also don't have to upgrade hundreds of km of transmission lines.

With this BESS project South Africa is going to become the world's multifunctional shop window for battery storage.

Fantastic find Nick - BBN will be very excited

I make it 6.2M more Buys than Sells today. Every trade after noon was a buy I think.

Cheers guys I'll get on it as soon as I have transplanted some trees tomorrow. This darn climate change means they've all kicked off early.

Yep that 200K definitely looks like a buy, despite 3x 40K+ Sells in the last 20 minutes there's still more than 130K more Buys than Sells so far today

to do trade analysis for ATM today ? Don't let me step on your toes fb if you want to do it

Are people suggesting that we should skip the facebook generation and take TBP straight to instagram ?

Mr Scrambled, it seams you were not aware that the competition only runs for the calendar year. If £1 is not achieved in 2019 then guess what, we'll have another competition. It's just a bit of fun, though having said that it also has a serious side of raising money for charity, as we did when we raised over £16,000 for Cancer Research last year:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/the-corbine-cup

Hamil - no cars is fine that's only the same stored energy as a tankful of petrol. Large scale energy storage facilities
where there's potentially thousands of times the batteries in a small space - that's a different matter and is why Vanadium flow batteries are much more suitable for that application.

I don't see anything red here and in fact count 37,000 more Buys than Sells so far

Daisydog - I think that message was intended for the RED board wasn't it ?