Member Info for AlexTrader0

I guess with all that’s been going on, now no one wants to be Short O&G going into the weekend.

Standard Chartered are generally well clued in Asia, I usually take note of their analysis, although of course short term anything can happen anytime in the markets but HBR is looking good this year if you have a longer term outlook.

Standard Chartered:

“Oil Demand Balance More Bullish Than 2023”

Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that silver and distillates are the only commodities whose investor positioning has changed significantly from a year ago.

Standard Chartered: oil could be undervalued by at least $10 per barrel.

Supply and demand balances are significantly more bullish compared to a year ago, when an outsized January surplus of 3.5 mb/d led to a large 1.6 mb/d Q1-2023 surplus.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Demand-Balance-More-Bullish-Than-2023.html

Even-though Brent and Natural Gas prices are now rallying but still most Oilers are down today along with the broader market, hopefully a better day here tomorrow.

Apparently BASF wants to exit O&G E&P business, and from H2 this year HBR will be increasingly involved with Wintershall Dea assets until drsk closure in Q4.

Although still insufficient but at least another step in the right direction here, hopefully more to follow:

UK: Chamber secures Energy Profits Levy concession to protect North Sea jobs and investment

The UK Government will make changes to the windfall tax from April following a campaign by Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce.

HM Treasury has confirmed its intention to inflation-adjust the price floor at which companies no longer have to pay the additional levy.

The decision follows direct calls, from the Chamber, for the UK Government to recognise the damage the tax is having on jobs and investment in the UK Continental Shelf.

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/united-kingdom/chamber-secures-energy-profits-levy-concession-to-protect-north-sea-jobs-and-investment-193821

Yahoo Finance:

This FTSE 250 stock could soar 30% in 2024!

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-250-stock-could-soar-080000008.html

harbour (hbr) propels energy reserves exploration efforts

harbour energy (hbr) , the u.k. based exploration and production player, has initiated the drilling of ***o-1 exploration well on dec 31, 2023, offshore indonesia.the company plans to deploy the west capella ultra deepwater drillship for the ***o-1 project, which reported a major gas discovery in the layaran-1 exploration well, undertaken by mubadala energy. the company also declared that ***o-1 would be drilled upto a depth of 11,733 feet.banking on the success of the layaran-1 well and the timpan-1 exploration well, skk migas, indonesia’s government regulator, hopes to discover significantly large reserves of oil and gas in the ***o-1 exploration well. migas declared that the drilling should take around 78 days to complete, including well testing.the regulatory body added that the well’s potential recoverable gas reserves were 723 billion cubic feet with 33.5 million barrels of liquids.building on the previous success of substantial natural gas reserves in the timpan-1 exploration well in 2022, the ***o-1 exploration well project is aimed at discovering potential gas reserves in the andaman ii block, off the coast of indonesia.harbour holds a 40% operating interest in the andaman ii block through a subsidiary, alongside mubadala energy and bp, which hold a 30% stake each. mubadala energy operates in the south andaman block, where the layaran-1 exploration well was drilled. harbour shared its plan to drill four exploration wells in the south andaman block, in a partnership with mubadala energy.hbriy is a london-listed independent oil and gas company. apart from holding a leading position in the u.k., the company has interests in indonesia, vietnam, mexico and norway as well.

BW Energy extends contract for BW Catcher FPSO in UK North Sea

BW Energy announced that its BW Catcher FPSO’s contract has been extended beyond its fixed term. The FPSO is leased out under a seven-year fixed term contract, with extension options for an additional 18 years.

The original seven-year base term of the contract expires on Jan. 6, 2025. From Jan. 6, 2024, 2024, the contract is subject to a rolling 12-month termination right. Until a termination notice is received, the contract automatically extends on a day-to-day basis beyond Jan. 6, 2025, into the option period.

The Catcher field partnership is made up of Premier Oil UK Limited (Harbour Energy) (50%), Waldorf CNS (I) Limited, Waldorf Production UK PLC (40%) and ONE-Dyas E&P Limited (10%).

OILPRICE

Standard Chartered: Oil Demand Growth To Remain Robust In 2024 And 2025

Standard Chartered have predicted that oil demand growth in the current year will clock in at a robust 1.54 mb/d and 1.41 mb/d in 2025.

StanChart has forecast that global oil demand growth in 2024-2025 will remain above the longer-term average.

The analysts have predicted that global monthly demand will move above 104 mb/d for the first time ever in August 2024 before eclipsing 105 mb/d in August 2025.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Demand-Growth-To-Remain-Robust-In-2024-And-2025.html

Goldman: Oil Prices Could Double if Houthi Attacks Continue

Houthi rebels have attacked commercial shipping more than 20 times since November, using various methods.

Major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag Lloyd are avoiding Red Sea and Suez Canal routes due to security concerns.

Operation Prosperity Guardian was initiated by the U.S. to protect commercial traffic, with support from other countries like the UK, Australia, and Canada.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Oil-Prices-Could-Double-if-Houthi-Attacks-Continue.html

@asartara, This here is straight from The Harbour Energy Wikipedia page:

Harbour Energy plc is an oil and gas company based in Edinburgh, Scotland. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 250 Index.

The company was established by the commodity trader, Noble Group, and the private-equity firm, EIG Global Energy Partners, in July 2014.[5] The initial funding was US$150 million from Noble Group and $50 million from EIG Global Energy Partners.[5] The company provided financial backing for Chrysaor Holdings to acquire assets valued at US$3.8bn from Royal Dutch Shell; the backing led to the company becoming the largest shareholder in Chrysaor Holdings.[6]

In June 2020, the company announced the provision of backing to enable Chrysaor Holdings to acquire Premier Oil.[7] In March 2021 the company merged Chrysaor Holdings and Premier Oil and absorbed both into Harbour Energy.[8] It was announced that the merged business would be managed by Linda Cooke, who had been CEO of Harbour Energy since it was established.[7] The transaction also made Harbour Energy the UK's largest independent oil and gas business.[8]

In 2023, the Indonesia oil and gas regulator SKK Migas approved the first plan of development for the Tuna offshore gas field, operated by Harbour Energy, with a total estimated investment of $3 billion.[9]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbour_Energy

Now as for the once ~£100+ share price and ~£80 Billion Market Cap here to which you refer according to/when looking at Google Finance, unfortunately as I was not an investor here at that time, I’m unable to provide any relating/precise details.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-250-stock-could-soar-080000008.html

@Rookie1, But most Oilers are dropping today and might I say even more than HBR, just checkout the likes of SQZ, ENQ, ITH, TLW, even big boys like Shel, so nothing to do with HBR specific which will hopefully join the big boys by Q4, ATB.

Well, Brent and UK Gas prices are now both flying higher.

Bloomberg, 05 January 2024

Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Global Supply Risks Mounting

Red Sea, Iran and Lebanon have all seen attacks this week

Benchmark Brent futures climb on Friday, adding to weekly gain

Oil rose, cementing a weekly advance, aided by supply risks in the Middle East and Libya.

Brent crude climbed to trade near $78 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East and North Africa ratcheted higher this week. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken heading to the region for the fourth time since the Hamas attack on Israel in early October.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-jan-5?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Great Divi, huge Capital gains potential, solid proactive management, fantastic PMO and now richly diversified/outstanding Wintershall Dea assets all in the works, what’s not to like here, sometimes markets offer very unique opportunities and HBR today is now one such case I believe.

While Brent is flying, analysts say on Bloomberg that there is currently a ~$15 gap that needs to be filled for geopolitical tensions that are yet to be priced into Brent.

No comment but interesting to note the below and subsequently do your own maths here/calculate potential, and make of it what you will:

“The acquisition of Wintershall Dea's assets will dramatically increase Harbour's scale and diversification. In 2024, the combined production is expected to be around 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d, around 60% of which will be natural gas), and management expects a fairly stable production profile in the next four years. Production will primarily be focused on Norway and the UK and, to a lesser extent, Argentina, Germany and Africa. The combined production would be broadly in line with that of US-focused Diamondback Energy, Inc. and Norway-focused Aker BP ASA (both rated 'BBB'/Stable).”

Market capitalization of Aker BP (AKRBP.OL)

Market cap: $17.89 Billion

As of January 2024 Aker BP has a market cap of $17.89 Billion. This makes Aker BP the world's 985th most valuable company by market cap according to our data. The market capitalization, commonly called market cap, is the total market value of a publicly traded company's outstanding shares and is commonly used to measure how much a company is worth.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/aker-bp/marketcap/#google_vignette

Hopefully we’ll get some positive updates here on progress with HBR along with the very lucrative Old PMO assets sometime during this quarter, after all in old PMO money this is still only around ~15p ish!

“HBR is currently a Sleeping Giant/Multibagger in the waiting with huge forward potential here both withing it's present/rich PMO inherited portfolio and now that of Wintershall Dea gained assets.”

I agree, Harbour Energy is now a completely different kettle of fish, and funny enough, it was already significantly undervalued even before the Wintershall Dea deal of the century!

“Harbour has demonstrated a record of acquiring assets and successfully integrating them, most recently through its reverse merger with Premier Oil, which increased its production by around 50% and made Harbour a listed company. Following acquisitions, Harbour focus has been on debt reduction, and pre-transaction net financial debt is minimal. We expect Harbour's financial policy to remain prudent.”

Additionally and interestingly as noted by Fitch here, Harbour itself also has substantial pro-forma 2C resource base (1.6 billion boe) and a number of near-term potential development projects in place.