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Gas prices seem to be flying today.

https://amp.fxempire.com/en/natural-gas-prices-forecast-oversold-conditions-setting-early-bullish-tone/1404532

Natural Gas Prices Forecast: Oversold Conditions Setting Early Bullish Tone

In M&A of this magnitude, lots of due diligence are conducted by default from the respective M&A (and Legal) teams, and every aspect of the transaction carefully reviewed (and often privately consulted with relevant authorities).

New HBR in which BASF and LetterOne (LetterOne non-voting) will also be a major shareholders, will be the equivalent of the likes of Aker BP, DYOR.

Https://www.stockopedia.com/content/harbour-energy-a-transformational-opportunity-986046/

EIA: US crude inventories down by 2.5 million barrels

Commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, not considering those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 429.9 million barrels in the week ending January 12, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its report published on Thursday.

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/EIA:-US-crude-inventories-down-by-2.5-million-barrels/61296280

Post from ADVFN:

back2basics118 Jan '24 - 13:15 - 4496 of 4496

0 8 0

Once this deal is closed/dusted by around Q4 this year the new HBR will be similar to Aker BP in size/production and it’s SP will eventually be trading closer to ~£6+ mark minimum, fundamentals/maths here is so crystal clear, markets often provide the opportunities but only for patient investors.

Since discussing HBR, also noteworthy to mention that Harbour Energy’s Wintershall DEA M&A was a master stroke by company management and hence brought about significant broker upgrades (which are likely to continue) as few highlighted here below:

ProactiveInvestors:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1038432/ftse-100-live-stocks-slide-weighed-by-astrazeneca-downgrade-1038432.html

Bank of America has raised its price target to 500p from 460p, and reiterated its ‘buy’ rating, after taking a closer look at the proposed acquisition of Wintershall.

“We like what we see,” said analysts at BofA in a research note.

BofA estimates around 35% free cash-flow yields across 2024 and 2025 using $80/Brent and $10/mmbtu European gas prices.

It notes the “problematic” UK production mix (fiscal and regulatory unknowns) goes from around 90% to around 30%.

“The proposed transaction offers major geographic diversification and expands Harbours production base >2.5x towards ~500kboe/d,” the bank explained.

“Reserve life metrics are improved, opex and capex intensity reduced,” and it expects the Wintershall portfolio to generate the full $2.15 billion (and change) cash price tag with its own FCF if the deal closed at year-end 2024.

“We see a major re-rating opportunity,” BofA said.

The City seems to agree

This is Money

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12894535/amp/MARKET-REPORT-JD-Sports-spooked-Nike-issues-sales-alert.html

Back in London, Harbour Energy marched ahead a day after it inked a near-£9billion deal to buy the non-Russian assets of German firm Wintershall Dea.

With Britain's biggest North Sea oil and gas producer on course to become a major global player, investment bank Stifel upgraded its target price to 570p from 480p.

Exactly that as highlighted by BASF/Reuters today, thanks for sharing here:

BERLIN, Jan 18 (Reuters) - German chemicals maker BASF (BASFn.DE), opens new tab said on Thursday that a government review of its $11.2 billion deal to give control over its energy business Wintershall Dea to Britain's Harbour Energy (HBR.L), opens new tab was standard procedure.

"The review of the transaction is in line with our usual and expected procedure," a company spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

Harbour Energy to boost capex as it invests in international growth projects

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/harbour-energy-to-boost-capex-as-it-invests-in-international-growth-projects/2-1-1585035

And a great dividend yield which is now only likely to increase

Wintershall Dea has been awarded 13 exploration licences by the Norwegian Ministry of Energy in the 2023 Award in Predefined Areas (APA) – five licences as operator, and eight as partner.......

https://wintershalldea.com/en/newsroom/pi-24-01

Topped up on this rare buying opportunity here with almost guaranteed big returns within ~1 year max, markets are almost never rational!

When looking at fundamentals, HBR clearly has the potential to more than double from today’s levels by the year end, and as with any share price, daily/weekly fluctuations seem irrelevant.

As mentioned earlier, HBR is no longer the same company (although it was still very much undervalued even before the Wintershall Dea M&A and hence the 360p agreed premium), as with any share trading, there will of course be fluctuations here along with bad or good market days but HBR SP will be lot harder to manipulate and eventually guaranteed to be easily back in the FTSE 100 post deal closure.

Aker BP has a ~£14 Billion market cap at the moment, DYOR:

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/544333/harbour-energy-wintershall-dea-deal-challenger-aker-bp/

Unsurprisingly, someone(s) loading up here with off and on book trades, live trading volumes looking very decent so far.

HBR is no longer the same company (although it was still very much undervalued even before the Wintershall Dea M&A and hence the 360p agreed premium), as with any share trading, there will of course be fluctuations here along with bad or good market days but HBR SP will be lot harder to manipulate and eventually guaranteed to be easily back in the FTSE 100 post deal closure.

Simply focusing on medium to longer term here (max circa 1 year), HBR upside potential today by far exceeds any other Oiler or even FTSE 250 company, daily fluctuations are irrelevant while BASF deal and ongoing prolific Exploration & Development projects are in progress.

Washington Post

A missile has struck a US-owned vessel off Yemen in the Gulf of Aden as Houthi attacks continue

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/14/houthis-us-yemen-israel-palestinians-gaza/1f7ef7a8-b350-11ee-b285-0853d4d1b92f_story.html

It’s actually a fantastic update on the initial news released via Mubadala last December.

@theancient, Great Post.

I expect HBR will provide progress updates on M&A and ongoing global Exploration throughout the year but particularly by the AGM in May.