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Post from ADVFN

pdosullivan2 Dec '23 - 20:27 - 4254 of 4256

0 14 0

It is very striking to see how much the share count has fallen as a result of the ongoing buybacks.

August 2021: 926m shares

End-2022: 847m shares

End-November 2023: 770m shares

Https://www.defenseworld.net/2023/12/04/short-interest-in-harbour-energy-plc-otcmktshbriy-drops-by-9-0.html

Short Interest in Harbour Energy plc Drops By 9.0%

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BMBVGQ36/

As pointed out by others, while HBR is evaluating/negotiating “Material M&A Opportunities”, lower O&G prices are undoubtedly to it’s advantage, they’ll rise eventually as global production decreases while demand is still looking pretty robust and just look at the Middle East, anything goes at the moment, O&G prices will rise sooner rather than later and I hope the jumps come post any HBR M&A.

Incredibly low trading volumes here today, so no wonder the share price can swing this big on absolutely no news with UK gas prices on the up, manipulation for a large stake holding to take place perhaps? Who knows, patience!

Oil's Wild Ride Is Driven by a Disruptive Band of Bot Traders

An opaque group of algorithmic money managers have seized control of the oil market.

Trading oil has perhaps never been more of a roller coaster ride than it is today.

Just in the past two months, prices threatened to reach $100 per barrel, only to whipsaw into the $70s. On one day in October, they swung as much as 6%. And so far in 2023, futures have lurched by more than $2 a day 161 times, a massive jump from previous years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-01/oil-prices-face-wild-swings-with-bot-traders-driving-the-market?srnd=premium-uk&leadSource=uverify%20wall

From ADVFN, and I completely agree, no debt here, expiring hedges, rising O&G prices, an Outstanding O&G Portfolio along with plenty of dry powder for smart M&A and shareholder returns going forward:

Onlylongterm99 Nov '23 - 16:32 - 4197 of 4206 Edit

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HBR is now a sleeping giant and undoubtedly going to be a multibagger stock here, especially from these nonsense lowball levels/valuations, DYOR.

Post from SQZ (on lse bb) today:

surprised Premium Member

Posts: 10,440

Price: 227.60

No Opinion

Charlie Munger Oil quote..Today 10:19

''Oil and gas are absolutely certain to become incredibly short and very high priced........running out of hydrocarbons is like running out of civilization. All this oil trade, all these drugs, fertilizers, fungicides, etc. … they all come from hydrocarbons. And it is not at all clear that there is any substitute..''

I agree.

ADVFN

TheComposer29 Nov '23 - 07:51 - 4244 of 4246

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Looking at this update here today, at these levels/valuation this is a truly great buy and hold with visible potential to be a Multibagger next year.

I agree, present valuation/market cap here is nonsense and clearly makes no sense at the moment, this should massively improve as incredibly poor hedges expire and rich international portfolio kicks in.

Unlike HBR, ENQ is burdened with debt, HBR is in a unique position with no debt, expiring of forced and poorly hedged pricing, promising portfolio……now looking forward to management updates here followed by an OPEC+ meeting on Friday.

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/decom/542056/autumn-statement-signals-big-change-for-uk-oil-and-gas-decom-taxation-expert-says/#:~:text=Autumn%20statement%20signals%20'big%20change,investment%2C%20but%20tax%20uncertainty%20remains.&text=BP's%20Miller%20platform%20was%20decommissioned%20in%202017.

Energy Voice:

Autumn statement signals 'big change' for UK oil and gas decom taxation, expert says. Treasury documents released last week could spell good news for North Sea decommissioning and CCUS investment, but tax uncertainty remains.

Looks like the tide here is finally about to turn, and about time!

ADVFN

loganair22 Nov '23 - 12:18 - 4226 of 4235

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Well that's really Green???

Grangemouth oil refinery, that refines 80% of Scotland's fuel, is Scotland's only refinery and 1 of only 6 in the UK, to close in 2025 and to become an import facility only.

What will happen is oil from the North Sea will then have to be shipped half way around the world to be refined, then shipped back to Scotland instead of being refined in Scotland in the first place.

The SNP will say that Scotland has reduced its carbon foot print, even though in reality Scotland has increased its carbon foot print, but off shored it.

ADVFN

llef16 Nov '23 - 15:46 - 4218 of 4218

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re Harbour Gas hedges, I can't remember the units, but the hedging profile was

2023 23 units @ 41p

2024 13 units @ 74p

2025 6 units @ 97p

and the 2023 hedging represented about 66% of expected production, so HBR expected to produce say 36 units in 2023.

Today’s (interestingly post market closure) back to back/2 RNS’s on Carlos Slim/CONTROL EMPRESARIAL DE CAPITALES, S.A. DE C.V. purchase of +4% of Harbour Energy (in 2 consecutive batches) while also maintaining a significant holding in Talos Energy and Zama field is very significant and will likely be an initial purchase leading to lot more ahead and will likely be extremely positive for HBR shares going forward, particularly as now we have one of the richest men onboard HBR and Zama!

HBR - Timely further increased Gas production here via “East Tolmount” just as HBR’s very poor gas hedges of ~40p per therm are now about to expire at the year end with current UK Gas prices at around quadruple of our fortunately soon expiring hedged pricing.

Https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/6265220/budget-tory-tax-cuts/

5 budget talking points as Tories promise tax cuts

EU, Germany and Denmark sued by oil firm over windfall tax

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/eu-germany-and-denmark-sued-by-oil-firm-over-windfall-tax

I disagree, and believe that we’ll see some positives on the EPL in the Autumn Statement come Monday, it’s a no brainier, let’s wait and see.

Also, OPEC+ meeting scheduled later this month (26 November):

The drop in prices builds pressure on Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of Opec+ ahead of their meeting on November 26, when they will consider how to respond to weakening oil prices and concerns that a potential stumble in global growth could hold back demand.

https://www.ft.com/content/47223166-55ba-4438-a45f-0455bcbea27e