Member Info for AlexTrader0

And let’s not forget potential progress on HBR drilling in Norway.

On separate note, some interesting reading here:

Wintershall achieves “significant” exploration, production milestones in 2023

In Norway, the company recommenced full production at the Dvalin field at the end of 2023 providing significant new gas volumes for Europe. It also secured approval for the further development of the Dvalin North and Maria Phase 2 fields, and 13 new exploration licences in the latest licensing round.

In Mexico, Wintershall Dea closed its acquisition of a 37% interest in the producing Hokchi field, and made a major oil discovery at the Kan exploration prospect with preliminary volume estimates of 200 to 300 MMboe. Together with its partners, the company received approval for the development concept for the Zama field, one of the largest shallow water oil discoveries of the past 20 years.

In Argentina, the development of the Fénix project has continued apace. The production platform for the project has been successfully installed in February 2024. The project will produce up to 10 MMcmgd for Argentina once operational, with first gas anticipated in Q4 2024.

In the MENA region, Wintershall Dea produced first gas at its operated East Damanhour project in Egypt, and took the final investment decision for the Raven west development (West Nile Delta), with start of production expected in Q2 2025. In Algeria, the company closed its acquisition of an increased share at Reggane Nord.

One of the strongest CCS portfolios in Europe. The company also made strong progress in its carbon, capture and storage (CCS) activities.

https://worldoil.com/news/2024/2/25/wintershall-achieves-significant-exploration-production-milestones-in-2023/

Key here will be any updates on progress in the Wintershall Dea deal, Mexico, and/or Indonesia assets, however on the M&A front, I believe that we can expect a comprehensive progress report by the time of the company AGM in May.

Stupmy, we’re also getting a fair few large one off trades here almost daily nowadays which is pretty irregular in HBR but not unexpected while awaiting for a merger of this size to close, and personally, I don’t expect to see any shorts here by Q3 as we close in on the M&A finalization.

Stumpy, Just looking at the daily trading volumes here these days as compared to last year, as for CONTROL EMPRESARIAL DE CAPITALES, S.A. DE C.V. ( Carlos Slim & Team/Family), they’ve gone from 0% to over +7% here in no time, my guess is that they’ll eventually move up to a +10% holding.

I have no crystal ball but I’m very optimistic (particularly post the merger) and invested here for the long run and while SP remain at these levels, I plan to reinvest my dividends, GLA.

Norwegian tax system is very fair, consistent and hence unlike the UK, extremely stable, newly formed HBR will benefit enormously post the Wintershall M&A finalization. I hope the UK will heed a lesson or two!

Short Sellers in Trouble As Physical Oil Market Defies Data

While official data indicates an oil glut, the physical oil market is experiencing significant tightness, as evidenced by soaring spreads, contrary to market expectations.

Factors contributing to the physical market's tightness include supply issues in various regions, including vessel diversions, freeze-offs in the US, worker protests in Libya, and logistical constraints in the North Sea.

Despite the physical market's tightening, financial players continue to aggressively sell and short the sector, translating into high short interest in energy stocks and challenging the physical oil market's resilience.

Something odd is taking place in the oil market. While on one hand "data" dissembled by Biden's Dept of Energy and specifically its statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration, has done everything it could to indicate there is a glut of oil, which is understandable - there is nothing Biden's handlers fear more than an inflationary surge in oil and gasoline prices ahead of the November elections and will do everything in their power to mandate a dataset that has the most adverse impact on oil prices, the physical market is sending just the opposite signal, with spreads showing screaming physical tightness.

Consider the Brent prompt spread which after tumbling to a multi-year low in late December, has exploded higher to a backwardation around 90 cents...

... entrenching its strongest position since late October, while several other timespreads also the firmest since last September. The comparable WTI April-May spread was trading around 50 cents after hitting 75 cents last week.

Commenting on the surge in time-spreads, Citi strategist Max Leyton - who is far less bearish than oil permabear Ed Morse who recently left the bank - says they strengthened on the “perfect storm” of Atlantic Basin supply issues, and notes that supply issues include “ongoing Red Sea vessel diversions, US freeze-offs hitting oil output, worker protests disrupting Libyan supply, UK oil terminal logistics limiting North Sea Forties supply, and buying up of crude cargoes at the Nigerian Dangote refinery."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Short-Sellers-in-Trouble-As-Physical-Oil-Market-Defies-Data.html

Looks like someone(s) loading up extremely carefully/slowly here on the very cheap at the moment, possibly CONTROL EMPRESARIAL DE CAPITALES, S.A. DE C.V. ( Carlos Slim & Team/Family) who likely plan to go to 10%+ holding before the deal is closed and the SP rockets along with also the PoO.

Interesting development here indeed which bodes very well for post M&A closure in Q4 (or earlier) with BASF now planning to hold on to their Russian O&G assets/business.

“BASF and LetterOne Extend Ownership of Russian Oil and Gas Company Wintershall”

“BASF, the German chemical giant, and LetterOne, an investment group led by Mikhail Fridman, have decided to maintain their ownership stakes in the Russian business of the oil and gas company Wintershall Dea. This decision comes despite the ongoing sale of foreign assets to Harbour Energy, a transaction that involves the transfer of Wintershall Dea's oil and gas business to Harbour Energy. However, the deal excludes Russia-related businesses and the gas transmission business in Germany. The legal separation of these Russia-related businesses is part of an ongoing process.”

Wintershall achieves “significant” exploration, production milestones in 2023

https://worldoil.com/news/2024/2/25/wintershall-achieves-significant-exploration-production-milestones-in-2023/

“great posts will read thru a few times, same there is so many wolves in sheep's clothing on this BB, you would have thought after the BOD playing an absolute blinder - and still the dark side stick like shxx on your shoe. Hope they get hurt. HNY GLA for the true HBR LTH'ers”

BaysilHope, spot on mate, and this may continue until the deal is finalized and then they will all rapidly disappear as this time, we’ll enter the FTSE 100 permanently.

Hopefully the HBR - Wintershall deal will close somewhat sooner than the anticipated Q4 and the resulting HBR (being the size of Aker BP) will easily be back in the FTSE 100.

Great Divi, huge Capital gains potential, solid proactive management, fantastic PMO and now richly diversified/outstanding Wintershall Dea assets all in the works, what’s not to like here, sometimes markets offer exceptionally unique opportunities and HBR today is now one such case I believe.

Firstly, any M&A deal of this magnitude (or any deal for that matter) is never completed until it’s fully closed/done (estimated closure Q4 this very year), and secondly, when have markets ever been rational? But markets do often provide unique entry opportunities and I believe HBR today is one such opportunity.

And as for Shorts (which BTW have significantly reduced from their highs of last year), I’ve seen them on the wrong side of a trade often and forced to rush for rapid closure (which can actually end up as a positive for the SP), some Shorters are smart and/or lucky and some for sure are just a bunch of gambling young kids playing with other people’s money, and this is all in my humble opinion, I’m sure everyone here will continuously do their own research, GLA.

BASF CFO Dirk Elvermann sees no obstacles to the planned sale of the oil and gas subsidiary Wintershall Dea to the British oil company Harbour Energy. Elvermann told the news agencies dpa-AFX and dpa that the review was a matter of course in the Foreign Trade and Payments Act and in a corresponding ordinance. BASF announced the sale in December.

The German government intends to subject the deal, which is due to be completed in the fourth quarter, to an investment review. The agreement includes the transfer of the production and development business and exploration rights in several countries, as well as licenses for the capture and storage of carbon dioxide.

"The Wintershall Dea assets to be divested do not represent critical infrastructure," said Elvermann. Only a minority stake in the transmission system operator Nowega could be considered part of the critical infrastructure. Wintershall Dea is only indirectly involved in this via a minority shareholding in Erdgas Münster. This was the trigger for the Federal Government's audit.

In addition, Wintershall Dea is continuing preparations for the separate sale of its stake in Wiga. This company is active in the gas transportation business - the operationally independent Wiga subsidiaries operate high-pressure pipeline systems, including the transportation network of Gascade as well as Opal and NEL.

The pipelines were originally used to distribute Russian gas in Germany, said Elvermann. Now they are being used to land liquefied natural gas from other countries, such as the USA.

- possibly also for hydrogen in the future. "This critical

infrastructure is not part of the deal with Harbour Energy," Elvermann emphasized. Wintershall Dea wants to sell its share of these pipelines separately. The German government is the first point of contact here.

In contrast to earlier German-British deals, the UK is no longer part of the EU, said the CFO. However, a British buyer had never been refused a purchase in an investment protection review. "We are very confident about the review."/wo/DP/he

RIGZONE, Thursday, February 15, 2024

Standard Chartered Reveals Where It Thinks Brent Oil Price Should Be

In a report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday, analysts at Standard Chartered said they still do not think crude oil prices fully reflect the rapid tightening of the market or the recent escalation of geopolitical risk.

The analysts noted in the report that, in their view, a Brent price above $90 per barrel “would more adequately reflect current fundamentals and risks”.

Standard Chartered projected in the report that the ICE Brent price will average $92 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $94 per barrel in the second quarter, $98 per barrel in the third quarter, and $96 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The company expects the commodity to average $109 per barrel in 2025, $128 per barrel in 2026, and $115 per barrel in 2027, the report showed.

Because UK, although no longer part of the EU, is nevertheless considered a stable longstanding friendly European country sharing similar values to rest of Europe and in M&A terms this matters lots. This deal will rapidly transform HBR into a major global O&G player trading within the FTSE 100.

Great Divi, huge Capital gains potential, solid proactive management, fantastic PMO and now richly diversified/outstanding Wintershall Dea assets all in the works, what’s not to like here, sometimes markets offer exceptionally unique opportunities and HBR today is now one such case I believe.

Hopefully the HBR - Wintershall deal will close somewhat sooner than the anticipated Q4 and the resulting HBR (being the size of Aker BP) will easily be back in the FTSE 100.

HBR/Wintershall DEA Deal:

Chris Wheaton at Stifel thinks the deal is almost certain to close. He says of the tie-up, which will take Harbour production from a forecast 187,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to over 500,000 boepd: “The market in our view is ignoring the Wintershall deal and focusing solely on the base portfolio, which is going to be only circa 35 per cent of the business from 2025 onwards.”

Hopefully the HBR - Wintershall deal will close somewhat sooner than the anticipated Q4 and the resulting HBR (being the size of Aker BP) will easily be back in the FTSE 100.

Whenever I see extremely low trading volumes for most of the day followed by a large closing UT (especially in UK markets) as was the case for HBR yesterday, it usually stinks of manipulation, I’m guessing that apart from Carlos Slim, either someone else is also loading up here or a Shorter is trying to manipulate the share price during a very low volume trading session, hold tight for black gold!

Just checked the Simply Wall Street analysis/link and it states HBR fair value as £8.82 at the moment, I assume this includes the Wintershall Dea M&A