Member Info for Aldebaran

Agree about volume and resistance being broken.

Ive taken a starter position here today you'll all be pleased to no. Said I want to see volume and support structure for price and we have that now.

Now when I post you cant moan cos I dont hold ;)

P.s. the other company is still a far better opportunity i won't change on that but this still looks really good. REALLY good opportunity in its own right.

Funny dat.

I think all we really want to know is when will sales ramp up and how long is "short term" when John says were basically paying speedy to hire our generators off us and paying their customers to take the hydrogen. I want to no what affect this has on the cash burn.

Ok we have just raised and have about 32m in the bank now by my calculations but we shouldn't waste it.

All looks good on trial front.

P1 has successfully passed 2, 14 & 28 day reviews and remains alive circa 7 months after treatment beating the media survival by 3 months and improving.

P2 has successfully passed 2, 14 and 28 day reviews and remains alive circa 3.5months after treatment. Another couple of weeks and this patient will also have bettered the median survival.

P3 has successfully passed the 48hr review with 14 day reviews point being reached this week.

We know patient one has zero side effects and patient 2 and 3 seemingly having none or very few also. Definitely not had any serious ones as would be reported.

So seemingly all going really well. Buoyed by FDA's decision to allow expansion into pediatrics.

Now what is needed is a credible and clear plan from Vlad on how they're going to continue to fund this and a commercial road map. Deliver that and I suspect the rise will be rapid. I can only assume he hasn't released anything yet because either him or the proposed investors are waiting for more trial data? How much more is needed or desired though that's the question. Just get on with it

Negativity? Im just interpreted what John has said. Or not said.

They need more money. Fact.

They dont expect significant sales until end of next year. Fact.

They are currently subsidising the cost of hydrogen to speedys customers. Fact.

Theyre currently leasing the fuel cells at "tomorrow's prices". Fact.

The truth is they're probably doing the right thing to seed the market but its gonna hurt existing holders. From end next year onwards after the next raise it'll be interesting then. Remember the latest raise is pretty much all accounted for building 4 crackers so they clearly need to raise again and they were burning over 1m per month before giving away hydrogen for pennies and reducing the leases on the 30kw generators etc..

Think about it logically

Negativity or realism or are they both the same thing here unfortunately?

Was looking back at my notes from 2023 and I had pencilled in that we were expecting 24m in revenue in 2024 and from my 2024 financials I see we got 4m revenue and impact on cash was actually just 300k. Pathetic.

This year 2025 I believe original target was 11m but now revised down.

These just continue to disappoint and I dont think any serious investors will be putting a lot in until the turnaround is confirmed. I like the new ceo and his plans and experience and I think he has a good chance of turning it around but need to see evidence that is happening in the accounts before putting a single penny more in here.

I note also in recent webinar he talks only of revenue and ignores questions about profits so clear more fundraising is inevitable. Just at what price is the question. Their clearly hoping that rebranding and announcing partnerships etc is going to see mugs send price upwards which they can raise of the back of. This is why any news will be sold into because investors aren't daft.

Also he talks of sales ramping up once cost parity with diesel achieved but he never says what the price of diesel is in the calculations as we know this varies massively.

Overall feel its still well to early here and the turnaround needs to be seen in the accounts and probably after the next raise it will be a reasonable risk reward.

JHFH your saying if there is a black Swan event, ok but that could happen to any company. What if there is one now for HEMO ? Will they be able to raise the funds to stay afloat? I mean the company are on fumes so I could say exactly the same.

As for cln if it isnt covered by RH then OK the shares go to heights for a 10% discount 🤷‍♂️ the outstanding debt is about 10% of the market cap so its not exactly crippling anymore its more optics.

You say the investors could put 3m into HEMO instead and make money instead of being flat, yet they were all up 100% within just a couple of weeks so that makes zero sense.

In principal tho I would rather not have the CLN around our necks and same thing happened as it was signed, deal fell through and rest is history. Same as HEMO.

Just why has Richard Hughes and Zeus Capitol decided to put £3m a quarter into Avacta at this point and not HEMO or any other biotech you should ask yourself....

For the record there is a good opportunity here ar HEMO, really good. But its nothing compared to Avacta that's the inescapable truth when you understand both...

Some of you may find this thread reapply useful

https://x.com/BowTiedBiotech/status/1959730285551009856?t=zgdT3AJDKMa0ckxaaWDgeA&s=19

It explains how to value biotech companies i.e. take peak sales, apply chance of success (20% for HEMO & Avacta as both phase 1 clinical assets) & discount it back.

Hi JHFH.

You are right about death spiral CLN. I agree with you actually. Enjoy your bank holiday and yes hoping for triple pay for this post.

I thought I was filtered? :-)

If the company has to pay in shares again to heights then unfortunately the SP will fall right back in a deaf spiral as you rightly say 👍

Im confident / hopeful that won't happen though. Let's see.

Now, to potential upsides I'm genuinely intrigued how you calculate that for HEMO and have come to the conclusion its bigger than Avacta.. not that potential upside should be the only metric you judge a company on of course.

Infact the way to value a pre revenue pharmaceutical company is to determine the peak sales projections, multiply that by a current chance of success and discount it back to present day. Be interesting to see your workings out for HEMO if you've done it? Or have anyone of the scientists done it or you just obsessed and excited by the science and not truly considered it?

Hereforhemo yes the grant is a positive step. Other companies which shall not be named also have recieved grants, some infact were years ago and yet it didnt stop the SP falling off a cliff. The only thing which has seen other not to be named companies actually find a bottom is the first sniff of a commercial deal and the fact trial data has matured. Thats what we need here.

It'll come soon just not imminent. Good luck. Anyway I'm watching keenly

P.S. I don't have anything against HEMO and actually wish them well. Ive told you all id luck to buy also if either there is some good volume and better price structure and/or the price is above the 200dma. Last week it showed the first signs of achieving this IMO. Need to see a follow through this week.

So improving technicals and I'm in or confirmation of this premium raise that's happening would be another trigger for me to enter. I think both the above are interlinked and likely or hopefully will happen within the next week or so.

Trial data still needs to mature and we need much better visibility of it and despite what some say here, including the expert scientist who doesn't know the difference between ancient chemotherapy and precision, there is no chance of a commercial deal until at least December but more likely Q1 next year. So don't ser yourself up for falls or others

I didnt say avacta was a 800bn company what i said was that if your valuing Hemo on some multiple of the total addressable market (which is absolutely fair) then run the same numbers for avacfa and inevitably you get to 800bn.

I also said avacta and hemo will both never achieve anything near those valuations and will be brought out long beforehand.

Someone then went into say hemo is a 666 bagger and not a single one of you laughed at that. Weird. Almost like your totally and hopelessly biased...

Anyway, as I've said multiple times HEMO is good but data needs to continue to impress for a while longer yet and they need cash. Vlad needs to get out the lab and into the city to raise some bloody capitol. Avacta's new NED Richard Hughes raises £3m every quarter for Avacta at 7% discount with no warrants, perhaps Vlad could tap him up too? But then he does want guarantees of near term commercial deals and to see ALL the data before committing. Good news is, if he does lend HEMO the money, its a great sign of those 2 things being in the bag ;) ;) ;)

Go hemo go!

Where does it specify there has been zero toxicity?

What is the update on the condition of the patient 1 and 2 other than alive?

I think your getting ahead of yourselves here i really do. Your all setting yourself up for disappointment I think.

Anyone unbiased looking in thinks, this looks promising and that's all it is right now. Its a novel new treatment for a disease with no other options so its going to take time for reviewing data and approving. Its not like, for a example, an existing treatment like chemotherapy just being delivered in a more targeted way and has let's say 4 years of data to back up the fact it works.

Honestly, if things keep going well you'll all be quids in but in timez not imminently like your all hoping for so dont set yourself up for disappointment just relax keep an eye on the chart and keep pushing Vlad to be better.

End of the day he's on the verge of raising a load of money, where is the PR offensive and all the exciting news about how well the patience are doing? He could get the price up if its all going brilliantly... unless, it isn't?

Stu there's no getting through to these people. They are blinkered, in love and totally obsessed with hemo.

Don't get me wrong early results look good but this idea big pharma are gonna be all over hemo chomping at the bit for the latest data with pen in hand ready to sign a major commercial deal and the company to go onto become a 666 bagger is for the birds.

A deal in Q1 2026 is what will happen if the data holds up during dose expansion and especially the paediatric arm as we know that AML is different with children.

Possibly there will be a deal around ASH in December. What is clear is that it will be clear from the share price action so you can just sit on the sidelines and buy in at the best possible moment I.e. when the downside risk has been removed or limited. Meanwhile other stocks are in uptrends and you can be making good money elsewhere

How do you value CAR-T for AML ?

I assume you take the total number of patience and multiply that by the costs of treatment and that gives you a total addressable market and then you apply a multiple to that for valuation purposes so let's say AML CAR-T is worth 200m per annum. Assuming HEMO take 100% marker share and put that on a 4x multiple you get an 800m valuation, right?

Now run the numbers in exact same way for Avacta...

Also, again I am responding to another poster who mentioned Avacta and comparing hemo to other biotechs is not against the rules. Nor is posting unless you own stock. What is against the rules is insulting each other and using profanity which you lot do all the time.

What's up? Are you really that insecure about your investment that you fear it being compared to another biotech? Its probably the first time the go hemo go brigade have actually read anything other than how great hemo is. It's easy to think your missus is the most beautiful woman I the world if you've never actually seen another woman isnt it.

But relax hemo is a good opportunity and i note considerable improvement in technicals this week as I predicted. I see further gains and brake through 180p up to 220p with news soon. Already above the 50 and 100dma now and notable increase in volume. So far so good.

What value do you put on the ability to destroy 90% of all solid tumours without causing serious side effects to the patience? Isn't that what CAR-T is attempting to do, clear the cancer with minimal side effects?

Its the holy grail in cancer treatment. Multiple people have tried and failed and spent hundreds of billions in the process.

Avacta have done it though, repeatedly over a period of 4 years. You laugh and mock because you dont understand it and haven't spent the time to research it due to being obsessed over HEMO.

I've researched both companies so I can make that comparison.

FWIW I still think HEMO is a great opportunity and if trial data from P1 is replicated time and time again your onto a winner. Just do yourself a favour while waiting and learn more about avacta. What you got to loose ? Then at least if you want to compare market caps or chance of success or commercial strategies you can do so from a much more informed position.

I think you and others are so blinkered here it's unreal. Classic point is lauding the 7m market cap as though its some kind of advantage. If you've binned me you won't see this but I do wish you luck anyway as at least you've been civil

Exactly. Is the penny starting to drop just how big the opportunity is there now?

Like I say though it won't get anywhere near the value because it'll be snapped up and then whoever owns precision has the keys to a 200bn oncology market.

Because avacta deliver safer more targeted chemotherapy this means that market can expand also as more patients can then take the safer version etc...

Look at some big pharma patent cliffs such as Merck's keytruda which accounts for 40% of there revenues. It expires in 2 years and how can they replace it...? Yep you guessed it

Also just for the record, I didnt bring avacta up. Someone else did and I'm just responding to an il informed comment about the market cap where people just assume because hemo market cap is smaller it means hemo is a better opportunity. It doesn't at all.

That doesn't mean hemo isn't a good opportunity in its own write because I think it is. But you cant compare to avacta in that sense as the risk reward is unparalleled

I dont get why you guys think having a 7m market cap is a advantage over avacta with 200m market cap?

Surely you should luck at the valuation to potential valuation ratio?

HEMO probably 100x here if all goes well? So again 700m valuation roughly

Avacta 800 billion valuation so 4,000x potential

Neither company will get anywhere those figures as big pharma will buy them out way beforehand. But still, lot of upside potential in both.

Also, a smaller market cap makes it infinitely more difficult for funds/II's to invest in, it makes it much more difficult to raise money and of course carries a greater risk of being taken private.

Again as with most posts here you only seem to see things from one direction with HEMO tinted glasses on.

Be sure to see the pro's and the cons and listen to others views as the market is made up of everyone's

You guys got to stop with this shorting business honestly I think your barking up the wrong tree. You were saying the same about me recently and I can assure you I wasn't or haven't ever been short here.

Ultimately price is up and volume is increasing despite any sells which is a positive. I think this wants to go higher, just needs a catalyst to judge it