Member Info for Aldebaran

Red_hornet, I have several small cap investments and have done well over the years. I like the rewards it brings when you pick right. Im comfortable with managed risk. The key to small caps is getting in right before they make a profit and no longer need cash as inevitably they get shafted every time they do. And it makes sense with government 10yr and 30yr gilts paying such high interest, anyone with money to lend is going to want a substantial discount in order to take the risk.

That point right before profitability isnt necessarily the cheapest point also I might add but it is the point where you get the absolute best risk reward. AFC are years away from profitability and won't see meaningful revenues until 2027 at best so you see why I believe its too early here at present.

Delano, no idea on short term movements in SP however AFC not out the downtrend yet. At best it tracks sideways until next bit of news then see from there. I can see the S&P 500 name drop causing a bit of excitement and a pop to around 13p but ultimately any good news will all just be sold into as serious investors know this is years away from starting a sustained uptrend. Some are happy to leave their money here and just ride it out and thats up to them. Personally I want my money working for me always. Hemo and avacta will both commercialise between now and Christmas, both undervalued and both now trading confidently above 200dma I.e. they hit their bottoms and came out with strong volume. That kind of thing needs to be seen here but it won't be for the foreseeable im afraid.

Agree Haywain, I dont put too much reliance on AI. it should only be used as a guide.

JHFH, 19/21 mice have seen complete durable responses (cures) with zero side effects on Avacta's latest pre|CISION drug. The one which is targeting a TAM of £200bn (90% of solid tumours). The delivery system, a micropeptide too small to be seen by the immune system has already been proven by the first pre|Cision drug Ava6000. 100-1 concentration of drug in tumour compared to blood and a 75x widening of the therapeutic index of the most potent topoisomerase 1 inhibitor known to man.

The reason i post the above is 2-fold. Avactas market cap is still just 200m which again like HEMO is beyond a joke and secondly I noted you have gone all on here on this one stock. I would strongly advise you to manage your risk and if and when you can put a small fraction into avacta after doing your own research. Seriously, look under the hood. Like I've done here. So pleased I came to Hemo and decided to learn as from afar it just looks like a very early stage biotech in phase 1 trials with only 3 patience treated. Once you scratch the surface you realise how special it potentially is. I think you'll find the same about Avacta.

I note also that precedent deals are made with 5 - 12 patience treated and if patient 1 survival is 1 year which aligns closer with my Q1 2026 prediction of a buyout. Vlad just needs to get cracked in with 2nd cohort and pediatrics and hopefully this is what the new partnership with MADE has been forged to do.

Although I accept a deal could come anytime from now until then. Very interesting

I put the last few posts into AI and it spat this out:-

Potential Biases and Risks

Bullish Bias: Haywain’s enthusiasm reflects a common tendency among retail investors to amplify positive news. The post downplays risks like small sample size (only three patients) and unconfirmed MRD status.

Data Gaps: The exact remission durations (6.5 vs. 6 months, 4.5 vs. 3 months) and lack of detailed P2 safety data suggest some assumptions. Hemogenyx’s regulatory news service (RNS) may not report every side effect, as Aldebaran notes.

Market Hype: The share price jump (9.66%) and references to inflated valuations (e.g., Toffers citing Morningstar’s £5.67B market cap, likely erroneous) indicate speculative fervor. Biotech stocks are volatile, and premature hype can lead to corrections.

Trial Risks: AML CAR-Ts face challenges (e.g., toxicity to normal blood cells, relapse), and while HG-CT-1’s FLT3 target is promising, larger cohorts are needed to confirm durability.

I then asked it whether 3/3 really is significant and this is what it spat out:-

Three out of three patients responding well (e.g., achieving CR) in Hemogenyx’s trial is very promising but not statistically significant in the technical sense due to the small sample size. In r/r FLT3+ AML, where patients typically survive only 2–4 months, three CRs with months of durability and no major side effects is a big deal—enough to excite investors and attract pharma attention, as the post claims. The FDA’s quick approval to test kids supports this optimism. However, it’s too early to call it a guaranteed success; more patients (5–10) are needed to confirm the trend. For investors, it’s a positive sign that could drive the share price higher, especially around the DCNY Summit or ASH, but there’s risk if future data disappoints. Keep watching for updates on P3 and beyond

FWIW Haywain, the fact its hard for cells to evade FLT3 targeted treatments has swung me to being much more convinced than I was. I may add more money here after the update IF Vlad specifically states there have been no side effects in any patients still. Thanks

Great points, thanks both.

Only comment would be that mice data which i have watched the video for doesn't necessarily translate into human perfectly otherwise we would approve drugs straight from in vivo testing. But expansion approval to pediatrics clearly a huge positive.

As far as us having a clean safety profile im just not sure that Hemo would RNS every side effect. I believe patient 1 has a clean safety profile but no data for patient 2 yet on that regard? Unless I missed it.

As for me im not convinced fully and will continue to research and ask questions and will largely be guided by technicals. If its the real deal and it may well be, then trust me in that it will be reflected in strong share price action. So far, so good on that front.

Haywain, thanks ill read your posts a bit later and digest but yes tending to understand and agree actually

Its not proven conclusively yet remember that the CDT19 targeting CAR-T suffers with loss of... CDT19.

I agree results look promising thus far but when it comes to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of deals then big pharma will want to be sure. I know everyone thinks they're queuing round the block check books in hand but its not like that IMV.

How sure are we this treatment actually is the real deal? We only have 6months of data for 1 patient, 4 months data for the 2nd patient and we dont really know about this patience QoL and we have no data for patient 3...

Vlad needs to put on some kind of investor event and update us all. So thus far, encouraging but by no means is it deal ready IMO

If it's 3 months then that would take us to ASH in December which is interesting timing. Personally I think any partner or acquirer will want pediatric data also so hopefully patience already lined up and the new collaboration with MADE can start to prove its worth straight away. Has our CEO had that foresight? Hope so!

Between 50 & 100 company's are invited to take part in this event. Typically between 10 & 15 deals or partnerships are announced off the back of it. Some immediately during, some straight after and others upto 3months later. According to AI (which should be treated with caution).

"The DCNY Summit is designed to fast-track strategic deal-making and "unlock capital for high-impact ventures," with a track record of sparking partnerships through closed-door sessions and matchmaking."

With P3 data in-hand, it just depends now if that is enough, if positive then it is statistically significant that 3/3 have responded. Will someone just jump in or will they be more cautious and want more data? Im not sure but seems highly likely that a deal or T/O will arrive by my stretch target of Q1 2026 so sometime between now and then.

Constructive news, if AFC were involved in the biggest hydrogen project in the world it would be RNS'd and also reflected in the shareprice dont you think?

Sigas thats fair enough im just commenting from a chart POV. Im not sure every single person who uses this bulletin bored is a long term investor only wanting to hold all the time. Im sure there will be some with side pots that trade others who only trade etc.. I mean, the main man Myles McNultty is at it all the time so im sure plenty of others are.

Note I have not talked down the long term POTENTial of the company which is what your interested in only

Head and shoulders pattern usually signals trend reversal. 34p breaking is more significant than people are willing to believe

https://x.com/StephenOakmont/status/1966296641776074830?t=zZc_urD4r3a54wQLq5PAug&s=19

There needs to be a strong bounce next week with volume otherwise its going much lower.

SGC alone must have close to 100% chance of coming to market. Just having that one indication approved would see a 1bn+ valuation based on 200m peak revenue on a 5x multiple.

Avacta is grossly undervalued

All these posts are great. Magnet demand is growing massively and the ability to reclaim them from hard drives and the like is amazing and long overdue. Finally have a circular production.

How green is it though, what happens to all the waste and how will company fund its ambitions for expansion plus naadaq listing?

Day, Neom is going ahead but without AFC. Thats the point. So what value is there on the TAMGO relationship if they can't sell to the largest hydrogen project in the world which is right on its doorstep. This is why people will believe AFC when they start seeing actual sales. Until then its all hope hype and potential. Sick of it. These sh it ty little small caps need to start performing or go bust quick. Meanwhile Avacta and HEMO both surge ahead because their actively delivering

Goodbye to NEOM — Saudi Arabia unveils biggest Hydrogen City in history with 400,000 tons annually https://share.google/un9PIFsek1byJa3BN

Shame its with a German partner and not using AFC tech though.

You see CN, we all know the hydrogen economy will boom, but will AFC be a part of it? 17k of sales despite years of hype and a 100m market cap. So far im not convinced afc have what it takes. Far from it

Yep, agree with all that JHFH. I was only pointing out people are making an inaccurate comparison when comparing pre consolidation to post consolidation share prices. It matters not to me if course.

Even with extra shares in circulation?

Be more useful to talk in terms of matket caps, no?

Also, HEMO has just broken out to the upside 👀

Hi, no the gap won't be a permanent target. It is one right now based off price action though.

I agree once US listing complete it should do well but before then there seems to be a immediate cash call which is what i think could pull the price down to gap fill on a fundamental basis. Just watching for now. Plenty of upside possible here so no need to rush into a position if you get me. Especially if the messages I've heard from MM are true (tho some doubt on that now due to the "supposed" hacking)