Member Info for Aldebaran

well done gladiator. 1400p just paid and much more to come over next few sessions there. thanks sono***un. i was openly trying to help a few out here but seems their not interested in making money and just would rather suffer here.

personally i think hemo flies rest of this week and next before cooling off and then optimal time to put some into avacta given their news catalysts. makes sense to run both positions to at least december then re-evaluate.

rydog... dont look a gift horse in the mouth

If you think thats big you should see the buys flying in at HEMO which has almost 10 bagged for me in 3 weeks 😬 and still plenty of gas in the tank.

I remember seeing traders congratulations each other on twitter after bagging from the lows 3 weeks ago and I thought then that they're missing a trick ignoring or not researching the fundamentals and learning both how undervalued this was and also the news flow inbound.

Just as I thought for years and posted on and off about how most long term holders were missing a trick ignoring the obvious downtrend.

Combine technicals and fundamentals and give yourself the very best chance of success. Personally I trade a lot and barely post on the shares I trade but I do read these bulletin boards and occasionally something catches my eye and peaks my interest to deep dive like it did here. Worth considering for future guys so you don't end up in the torrid position you have been in for the past few years.

Good luck and go hemo go lol

F1 driver you cant say this should be worth X because it was worth Y before. How do you know it wasn't overvalued previously? Hint: it was.

You should perform forward looking basic calculations and determine a current value based off what we know and stop looking backwards.

Island girl, you don't need to imagine they value here, you can calculate it as I did earlier

Here is a handy guide also https://x.com/BowTiedBiotech/status/1959730293423915250?t=4OhywJEFGaJEUBPVtWW2mg&s=19

I get HEMO to be worth a risk-adjusted £200 per share now based off 50% chance of success, a 5yr DCF at 10% per year and that's over a fully diluted market cap and ignores the pipeline.

I should caution that this is assuming P3 results are good which the market is telling us they are. DYOR

Also im not 100% sure im doing these calculations right as the numbers just seem insane

If its such a superb update how come the share price is down on what looks like decent volume?

What took you so long JHFH 🤪

Codejunkie I dont think mka fund the lot i think that they are HEAVILY reliant on partners though and the revenue share needs to be explained in order to value this properly. I also think the head and shoulders chart pattern coupled with 34p support breaking is a bad sign. I think the company might do well long term but will need money for the NASDAQ listing and many other things very soon. I suspect a placing is in the works and unfortunately it will be at a sizeable discount as thats just the way these markets are right now. Especially with government gilts providing excellent risk free returns. Financiers need to get a good discount to make it worth there while. Their probably already shorting into the upcoming raise along with Myles.

Oh wow just seen yes now 12pound. Its only up 800% since I mentioned it here about 3 weeks ago lol

Next one to move like that is Avacta. Watch this space and remember i said it.

Meanwhile, at AFC, the tumbleweed grows larger ...

Let it roll, this comment from Vlad in my view is why he has never been bothered about dilution and issuing warrants etc because he knew everyone would still make a lot of money but he should have been thinking how to maximise gains from the offset. Anyway, dont want to be negative at the moment as seems this as a ton of momentum.

Davie you did the right thing not averaging down and just hoping to buy the bottom. Without JHFH and others intervention this could have gone a LOT worse even bankrupt. Where you made a mistake is not averaging down after financing sorted and stock burst through the 200dma on the highest ever recorded volume. IMO.

Seaworthy, I've just posted my DCF calculations for HEMO and I get to staggering value of £200 per share Conservatively. Currently just £10 per share. No wonder the trial results are sending it stratospheric. Up over 700% from its low with an enormous way to go.

I'll bring the profits from there back here in 2027 ish if things have turned around here. IF

Eak sales are 5 years from now and discount back 10% per year and then divided by a fully diluted market cap and I still get to a current share price which should be over £200 per share. Insane.

I keep checking I've run the number right... anyone else had a go at this?

You guys keep comparing to old money which is wrong because more shares are in issue and also, the company was overvalued back then given the stage of clinical development.

What you should do is look forward and value it from a DCF perspective and chance of success along with peak sales. Not easy but...

350k patients per year get AML

25 - 30% if them have the FLT3 mutation

And 60 - 70% of them relapse giving a patient population of 50k roughly.

Current treatments cost between 20 & 30k per month and come with side effects, only seen as bridging therapies to transplants etc... so HEMO could and should Conservatively take 200k per annum for their HG-CT-1

Let's assume a conservative 50% chance of success even though we're on the verge of being told 3/3 patients have responded (statistically significant).

Plug that into the calculator and you get a value for HEMO of over 6bn. Discounting other pipeline assets.

Let's assume the pe

What did I say about AFC needing to increase manpower?

Need a lot more also and each one costs money, this is the problem with turnarounds like this. Theyre costly and take time. Meanwhile HEMO up again today 👀 and avacta wiped its feet ready for another leg up. Amazes me people would rather be right then be rich.

Do you wanna make money in stocks going up or do you only want to make money in AFC in a few years time IF the CEO turns it around and doesn't dilute too harshly?

Its what they haven't said which is causing the drop.

They can talk about grants etc all they like. Where is the money to fund all this ambition? Needs to be confirmed then market will move otherwise everyone knows a sizeable placing is coming

Where are people getting RNS alerts now? Always late on LSE and Vox charge now so they can FO

If your talking about me i do believe the company has a chance of being successful, i do believe John is a good CEO and has a real shot at turning this around. He's also invested a nice chunk of his own money in it which is excellent. Not to mention he pulled off a decent raise at 10p with institutions adding. All that is positive. The hydrogen economy is clearly going to be huge also and AFC have some potentially fantastic tech.

Whilst all that is true, it doesn't change the fact that the immediate term outlook is poor. This is a turnaround play now with a LOT of work to do. The placing cash is already accounted for both business costs and building 4 crackers. Thats it. They still need to scale up manufacturing of fuel cells and pay Volex something to assist them. They still have all the ongoing development and certification risks of Hy-5 and have to get some kind of market penetration even potentially having to increase headcount etc... this is all going to be time consuming and costly. I think there will be another large raise next year. At least 1 and im sick of them. I'll average down once profitability in sight. Been holding years you can see my posting history. Believe it or not I dont care. Its such a small part of my portfolio now I feel I can just be honest and unbiased in my analysis rather than frantically and desperately trying to protect an already heavily underwater and overexposed position like most rampers on here

You don't invest hoping for a surprise, you invest based on what you're told. John has already spelt it out to us all. No significant sales until 2027 and thats assuming everything goes to plan. Sure there will be more partnerships and MoU's and orderbooks etc along the way but until sales are significant and ramping up and their is a pathway to profitability then nothing done will see the SP hit a sustained uptrend

Ive watched all Vlads videos, the sound quality is poor, his presentation style poor, use of graphics etc is poor. The man is a scientist and a bloody good one. I realise he founded HEMO but surely he must know now that he needs a business development officer and a commercially savvy CEO to extract maximum value out the science. He's largely done the hard bit. I dont doubt there is huge upside to this market cap but if you want maximum value then there's a lot more to do than just showcase the science.

JHFH - I see your post and note it. Was genuinely, for once, only trying to suggest it for your benefit in terms of risk management thats all. No problem. FWIW, your confidence to be all in gives me more confidence in HEMO. I just won't be to the point where im all in on any one stock that's all. Cheers