Member Info for Aldebaran

Just been on twitter and there is some amazing content on their at the moment like this one from GBanks

https://x.com/GBanks291/status/1826332354966647139?t=tCoWOquoF80owbbet__pZA&s=19

That really hit home how unique avacta is and valuable

Guys the price action is telling you something here it might not be what you want to hear but the message is crystal clear. At what point is enough enough and you move your hard earned into a stock actually in a uptrend?

Tells you all you need to know. BOOM will be sub 200p soo enough. Even director buys doing NOTHING to buoy sentiment I'm afraid

Added again now largest position ever held in 1 stock.

Rationale

Av6000 will replace doxorubicin as standard of care gobbling up over a billion dollars pa in sales and quite likely expanding that market

Pipeline will contain some warheads big pharma want but have discounted previously due to toxicity

Dx will get sold soon, the mpox test distribution will help make their P&L look much better making it more sellable

I like the new management team. Christina has made some massive changes already and appears to have investors as one of her priorities unlike Al

Q2W data release and ESMO coming up, expecting fireworks.

Chart primed, we'll be through that 200DMA soon enough and GSA will take their loss that can only be good for sentiment

This top up going to look like such an obvious opportunity to people with hindsight in future. Just like 40p was recently. Anyway, onwards!

For less than 300m market cap you can't go wrong. My buy going to look

Why would bond leave if afc energy is really at the most exciting time in it's history. He has delivered no shareholder value during his tenure and miserably failed to commercialise in any meaningful way thr promising fuel cell tech afc has.

The last placing at 15p was a joke, cash burn remains astronomical and company still valued at over 100m which makes zero sense. This is a complete mess IMO

Why would bond leave if afc energy is really at the most exciting time in it's history. He has delivered no shareholder value during his tenure and miserably failed to commercialise in any meaningful

What if we see a CR from Q3W, or more than one?

What is all patients in Q2W show efficacy. Given every 2 weeks at 250mg

It demonstrates unequivocally the highly targeted nature of the platform and you can forget all about how much dox is cleaved and is found in the tumour etc... it's all about the affect now, the results. I think you underestimate the power of the data Avacta are set to release.

Maybe AIM struggles to value it beyond a few clued up PI's but BP do and we know there are many watching in with interest.

Also, what will move the SP is us trading above the 200dma and GSA closing. We're in for a fantastic few months here IMHO

The pipeline is a major value driver, as soon as we see what Avacta have linked precision too the value of the platform because visible to all.

Releasing data from Q2W and showing efficacy is another major value driver.

Starting phase 1b is another major value driver as the company has fundamentally moved on.

Just to name a few things which will materially affect the share price over the next few months.

This is about as news rich of a period as avacta have ever had, as I said before from hitting the lows at 39p I think the rerate has begun here and by Christmas we ought to be valued at multiples of thus measly level.

First I didn't being up avacta you did.

Second avacta have over 30m in the bank so no need to worry about a placing anytime soon. One will come in future but will be private placement to institutes at much higher levels

3 If more people were buying audioboom than selling why does the chart look so gash?

Wake up and smell the coffee mate

There's plenty if podcast providers it's a very crowded space whereas there's nobody in the world with the technology avacta has. Nobody.

Avacta will eclipse audioboom by a huge way. You watch while sat here clinging onto your losses hoping you'll reach the bottom without your own placing lol

Tat tar for now

Not sure what your problem is with avacta or why you brought it up on this BB. I am merely commenting on what I see here with regards to the extremely weak price action.

Avacta are curing cancer and audiboom are trying to be the third best podcast platform. It's chalk and cheese night and day. Uptrend has started at avacta whereas boom is yet to put in a bottom and had a big seller still dumping. The stocks couldn't be any different.

Anyway like I said before you stay here and be right instead of rich if that's what you want fella I couldn't care less. I'm just commenting on the weak price action here which you or nobody can argue with. Boom is heading DOWN

Another test of 200dma incoming, probably a rejection and slight pullback then news either this week or next sends us smashing through it for that biblical rally we've all been waiting for. It will be fun watching GSA algo cause a mini squeeze on price also. Tw @s

Sit back and watch time if you're already fully loaded ;-)

Lol bearhuntr just see your reply. Very funny when avacta is now breaking out to the upside.

Do you want to be right or do you want to be rich? Avacta will outperform boom by a country mile over next few months you can hold me to that.

This is a absolute bag of shhhh it

Lows being taken out now. Sellers still about and not enough buyers clearly

From lows of 39p to between £3 & £4 over next few months entirely plausible and arguably expected. If Avacta is truly worth what everyone (most anyway) believe then the run has to happen at some point and I believe it's started. News flow now works out something like every 3 weeks we can expect a value adding RNS, we just need to get clear or the 200day moving average and see GSA close out. Not long now. It's go time.

RAH is an arrogant clown hence why he has such a high average but regarding the cumulative dose converted it stands to reason that being dosed at stronger levels and for longer will lead to that, how much more is the question though if avacta saw enough at C7 to end Q3W there and they end Q2W at C3 which gives same cumulative dose then that's a great sign to me. End of the day now it's all a out this proxy p2 trial using first line patients in p1b. If we see efficacy here and I suspect we will, then all bets are off for how avacta share price performs and a TO valuation made by BP.

#AVCT at ESMO in a month.

For AACR the data cut off was a month prior. CC made it clear at the AGM this is (1) unusual (2) the team really pushed to showcase as much data as possible.

With ESMO on 14 Sept, that means data cut off was yesterday, or thereabouts.

Tomorrow marks the following milestones:

C1 - 21/03 (x3 patients dosed)

+64 days

C2 - 23/05 (x3 patients dosed)

+35 days

C3 - 26/06 (x3 patients dosed)

+55 days (ongoing)

***********************

C1, Q2W (160mg/108mg)

1st scan 16 May ✅

2nd scan 11 July ✅

152 days = 10 doses minimum

Cumulative dose to date: 1,600mg/1,080mg

***********************

C2, Q2W (200mg/135mg)

1st scan 18 July ✅

2nd scan 12 September

89 days ago = 6 doses minimum

Cumulative dose to date: 1,200mg/810mg

***********************

C3, Q2W (250mg/169mg)

1st scan 21 August

2nd scan 16 October

55 days ago = 3 doses minimum

Cumulative dose to date: 750mg/507mg

***********************

C5, Q3W (250mg/169mg)

5 April 2023, 1st patient Cohort 5 dosed

503 days ago = 23 doses maximum

Potential max cumulative dose to date (if patient(s) remains on-drug): 5,750mg/3,887mg

***********************

C6, Q3W (310mg/209mg)

19 Sept 2023, Cohort 6 was completed on 19/09, I don’t think we have a start date RNS, so assume a rough start date of 12 weeks prior = 27 June 2023

c. 420 days ago = c. 20 doses

Potential max cumulative dose to date (if patient(s) remains on-drug): 6,200mg/4,180mg

***********************

C7, Q3W (385mg/260mg)

Again, I don’t believe we have an exact start date so assume a week following the completion of C6 RNS (19/09) which takes us to 26/09/2023

c. 329 days ago = c. 15 doses

Potential max cumulative dose to date (if patient(s) remains on-drug): 5,775mg/3,900mg

***********************

Cohort 3, UPS patient (160mg/108mg)

The UPS patient cannot have been enrolled in both AVA6000 and his prior clinical trial (ended Jan 23), so one assumes he was a back fill (after C3 had officially completed).

We know they back fill from previous Q&A.

If we assume the UPS patient finished say a month after he completed his other clinical trial (NB: he was Stage 4 so they won’t have waited long).

That’s a February 2023 enrolment.

Early Feb 2023 > today = 565 days.

26 doses

Potential max cumulative dose to date (if UPS patient remains on-drug): 4,160mg/2,808mg

***********************

Avacta is breaking all the rules with these potential cumulative totals. If *any* patients from Q3W remain on drug it’s remarkable.

The share price requires +76% just to get back to the level it sat at 1,105 days ago (124p) before a single patient had been dosed.

At some point, this arrhythmic market finds a defibrillator.

That point can’t be far away.

Can you imagine the clinicians talking to the terminally Ill patients on AVA6K trial:

We have some good news and some very bad news for you.

The good news is that your cancer has reduced in size by 70% and you've had a material improvement to the quality of your life whilst on drug and you have clearly lived a lot longer than you would have otherwise.

Bad news is there is not the same level of dox in your tumour of 800ng/gm after 24hrs

Lol

Correct he did say that yes.

It's irrelevant anyway, we're at a point where it is all about the efficacy on patients. Who says it isn't better to have lower levels of dox in the tumour but delivered for a longer period? We need to start seeing partial and complete responses as that speaks for itself.

That's what I think we'll see in P1b and that avacta is already seeing after the first surveillance scans of Q2W patients: hence the SAB

No DLT's were observed and yet AVCT stopped at C7. C7 of Q3W Cmax = C3 Q2W Cmax so read into that what you will.

My view is we stop at C3 of Q2W and begin p1b because the scientists have seen enough to know this is a blockbuster. Annually $1.4bn is spent on doxorubicin per year let us assume AVACTA take just 50% of that gives revenue of $700m pa and the of course with precision the dose strength can be increased as can the number of those capable of taking it and so they can take it for longer and you're quickly back up above $1bn in revenue again.

Avacta market cap could go 10-20x from here based on that alone and as we know, there is more than just AVACTA6000 in the pipeline don't we. Upside is unimaginable and the reason why I think BP have not made a move yet. They'll need to justify the huge price tag to their shareholders with data.

Data

Data

Data

And that Data is coming thick and fast from September onwards.

P1b shows efficacy and it will then that's when BP strike along with the pipeline reveal and disposal of DX of course.

Avacta certainly won't exist by end 2025 but possible end of this year or early next year when p1b data fully available backed up by all the P1 Q2W & Q3W data.