Member Info for Aldebaran

Heights dumping at a loss now?

And I'll do nothing but continue holding because I'm too lazy to actually do anything material and I know there's nothing I can do anyway plus I'm not prepared to cell because the opportunity is just too great

And I'll write a strongly worded letter to the CEO?

And I'll go to Avacta head office and confront the board...

And I'll sell all my shares?

Quite possibly avacta will sell dx, get enough money for another year and in that time P1B data in TNBC (whoever asked for that btw) will be available and a TO offer lands starting a bidding war that sees avacta properly valued.

That is also a scenario which is possible IMV and it's well known that pharmaceutical companies are about to lose patents on existing drugs. Merck are in huge trouble with Keytruda for example.

Yes there maybe a dilution event but that could also be at a premium. And as long as dilution is for a good cause I.e nasdaq listing then so what?

I think people are trying to be cute and timing the market here which is fine just if a buyout lands and you don't have enough in to change your life then don't moan on here. You have the evidence all smacking you in the face.

I think this is a share that people will look back on in disbelief and rue not investing themselves OR having enough invested.

But yeah, try save a few pence on a buy in lol

Standard dox is pretty good. Correct.

Imagine if you could give patients more of it and because it's safer you can treat a wider variety of patients and if you could give them it more frequently as well. Standard dox would lead to so much better outcomes. Lower for longer as Dr Tap said...

What's the difference between Standard dox and dox released from Ava6000 again?

Thorn explain how ava6k might not be better than straight dox? It's already safer and kinder treatment .

Wyn P3 can't be skipped and we are all hoping for a buyout but it's not guaranteed to come or come on terms we will accept. As a result the company just need to plough on as if they're taking it all the way. Following the prometheus playback it's the best negotiations tactic I.e. Just show intent and keep producing excellent data- exactly what avacta are doing.

I don't think you can go wrong using precedents of other takeovers and applying some conservatism.

The numbers involved with avacta are eye-wateringly huge so either way you calculate it you get significant upside from this level. How much and when it will happen are the only unknowns in my view

A hostile takeover is of no concern as long as there is more than 1 bidder

Think you'll find raising any money was a miracle back then. Indeed many companies tried and failed and are now bust.

Financial markets are improving and are even better in USA.

Also we'll be armed with P1B data this time.

Times have changed for the better.

People wrongly assume any extra dilution will be at a discount.

Sell dx to see us through and release P1B data puts us in the driving seat firmly for negotiations. There's plenty of people with the ability to finance avacta but nobody else has anything like our technology. They could raise at say £1 and when you present the upside plus chance of success it's still a massive win for anybody financing us.

It's simple really, go round 10 of them, present our data, tell them how much we want and the highest share price wins. Walk away.

There's nothing else like avacta. Nothing.

Avacta has a totally new management team at the helm, different backgrounds, skillets and priorities. What happened with LFT's is totally irrelevant to the oncology division which has gone from strength to strength. Bringing up LFT's for how long now?

LFT's... again? Lol

Summary here

Bullish people say Avacta will be valued based on precedents and it's IP and

Bears say if it's so good why is it so cheap still

Lol

What a pr at haha gosushi saying we can't use industry precedents but we can use the ramblings of a random who doesn't even know how go properly work out the chances of success of drugs that are already known to work pmsl

It's only the deliver mechanism that's changed m8 I'll give you a hint. Back to the drawing bored

Actually shares in issue would be 500m ish but hopefully this illustrated my point

Stodgy do some research m8 ffs.

There are precedents all over the place for BP paying upto 9x sales using forecasted revenue upto 7 years in advance.

Throw in some conservatism and do your own calls. Here is a example.

Ava6k replaces doxorubicin as standard of care. I think we all can agree that is inevitable or let's say 99% just to please to derampers.

Straight dox sells over £1bn pa and that's rising at double digit CAGR.

Let's say in 5 years (not 7) it'd selling just 1.5bn pa and Let's sat BP just put a 3x premium on that so you get a valuation for avacta of 4.5bn

That totally discounts the pipeline of other drugs plus affyxcell etc..

Current market cap is 200m. Let's add in another 200m shares for sh it's and giggles and you divide 4.5bn by 400m yoi still get over 10x your money from today's level.

People can play about trying to save a penny here or there but if you're out when that red dot lands that's life changing money gone. Remember those numbers are way conservative. 20bn definitely achievable and even higher if a6103 shows anything like the efficacy in human as it seen in animal.

Avacta is a sleeping giant

LFT's wyn, really?!

End of the day my belief is that the technology is so amazing that there will be multiple interested parties and they will set the price.

Precision is capable of disrupting and expanding the global market for treating 90% of solid tumours and assuming ava6k is successful (which is a given) then paying billions is derisked by this one asset. Then there's a whole pipeline of drugs that can be developed with same MOA, 1 already showing outstanding pre clinical results. Still a risk, yes, but derisked by ava6k. So yes for those reasons BP will pay the big bucks or they'll lose out to a competitor. Simple logic really

So let's say the entire share register all vote in favour of a 1bn take over.

So Pfizer just take it for 1bn do they, or do Astrazeneca want it for 1.1bn. And are merck going to sit back and watch keytruda come off patent and allow Pfizer to take it or will they put a bid in?

Then what do Lily have to say about it?

The science is too good.

Also, this argument about why haven't BP already pounced is ridiculous. If something is going to happen why hasn't it already? You can say that about anything.

Why didn't blockbuster buy netflix when it had the chance to buy it for £50m etc..

Just because it hasn't happened YET, does not mean it won't happen and also doesn't mean it can't come out the blue. Personally that's what I think will happen.

P1b is 6m away give or take. Anytime before that once data is seen by those under NDA's could easily trigger the anticipated bidding war. Meanwhile people like Thorn will be sat with his thumb up his a s s trying to save a couple of pence on am entry price.

I don't know if it's tragic or hilarious.

Avacta clearly have something special, they know it, we know it and I dare say BP know it