Member Info for Alas_Smith

Yesterday, the Fed in pausing a rise accompanied the decision with calming words that are easing investor worries. The Bank of England followed suit to allow the heavy lifting that the rises seek to achieve have a little more time to do their stuff. And while it does translate to the consumer having any less of a difficult time with their own cost of living problems, it is possible that perhaps interest rates have topped off though are likely to stay at these levels for a few months.

This is sufficient for a slight movement in favour of equities hence the decent rise in share prices in Europe and quite pronounced for GROW though the figures produced by this site are unreliable.

Good to note that litigation has been determined in the case of Ryanair.

In todays business section on the BBC, the lead article comments on the report by Begbies Trayner, (I do own a few shares in BEG still) of company failures rising. With the price of gold rising in response to Middle East, it mitigates any slowdown in foreign exchange over winter months. The cost of living for many remains problematic.

Whether the FTSE collapses or not is somewhat of a sterile argument. Of rather worrying concern is that IRAN is at the point of whipping up its allies for an escalation of conflict. I feel a very bumpy end to the year is in prospect for investors.

Quite a chunky buy. I might follow suit tomorrow, albeit with a (much) smaller quantity

I do not share your optimism for battery companies, or, for that matter those involved in alternative energy. They have been among the fastest for capital erosion... I still hold AFC Energy (roughly an 80% paper loss), Varta I have sold to crystallise a 16% loss and today learned that Siemens Energy is off 32%. While I do not own Siemens Energy shares, I do own share in Siemens AG, which is off over 6%.

Today is another statue day, but a decent bottle of claret this evening, a warming glass of brandy and a game of bridge at home with some of my family that have come to visit this weekend will return me to better humour.

Steph, bond yields are the PRIMARY cause for investor reluctance to invest in equities. That is a first headwind, next headwind is that the FED has stated that rates will remain higher and for longer, the 3rd one is that there is some (quite reasonable) concern on the service of debt. This is not constrained to US but on many countries including Germany and UK. The remaining headwinds are Ukraine : Russia and the Middle East being drawn into another war.

My feeling is that investors are going to have a rough time until the end of the year, the rot having started in July. For myself, my portfolio having been up over 16% in July is now up just 4%. In 2018 when the "stable genius" announced a trade war with China my portfolio lost 8.64%, my worst October ever. This year down 5.24% and a few days left. The rest of 2018 saw a rise of 0.83% in November and a fall of 6.78% in December.

Not for a moment suggesting that this will be repeated, but I would not be in the least surprised if things rhyme. If they do, then 2019 was a cracker of a year and I was up 24.06%.

Anyway, there have been no hiding places for a few months, holdings in companies that I expected to do well (insolvency companies, pawnbrokers etc) have been as flat as a witches t!t but I will continue to drip cash in from dividends thrown off elsewhere.

Short term, I am very bearish, long term very optimistic. I like to be able to get out of a mess faster than I get into one and see no compelling reason to simply invest in UK or US markets. I am keen though on India and their potential to overtake China as the factory for the world

There has been a slew of data released recently from manufacturing and services industries that make pretty depressing reading. Accordingly the SP is marked down. On the other hand, with missiles flying around in Ukraine and Middle East, so shares in bomb makers and defence suppliers continue to climb.

Cannot pretend for a moment that the ride is anything other than worrying. FWIW, I think I have made a good decision with my purchase points, despite being underwater

Yield rates for individual equities are immaterial if dividends cease to be paid.

While long term bond yields rise, stock markets will not be able to regain composure. As soon as they fall, then it will be the catalyst for growth. I fear we are in for a muted remainder of the year with the potential for war extending in Middle East and American boredom with Ukraine and Russia.

Politics in advance of 2024 election across the pond adds further unease with a senile and doddery President that is disliked and a challenger from a former president who is a liar but with such a huge command over the party that any challenge becomes impossible.

At the moment it is only a paper loss

Exciting, isn’t it?

As always, steph, your contribution is informing and helpful. The caution that markets have at the moment is from bond yields. Once there is the whiff of reducing, then equity markets will regain composure. But when yields have sustained and contiuing falls, I am certain it will be a trigger for a marked change in fortune.

In common with you, sheffieldowls, I too am rather bewildered that the market cap in this, and for that matter in BEG has declined during what has all the hallmark makings of a bumper time for each business. My holding has been considerably reduced in BEG but I have added a few shares in RFX over the last week. Not, I hasten, to the exposure that you have but nevertheless have added.

RFX does pay a dividend, but my portfolio is structured for capital growth and any dividend thrown off is a bonus. Always better to buy on statue days and sell on pigeon ones.

Investing is not a race. Be patient, accept that there will be periods of volatility, uncertainty and worry which has an effect on share prices. These are inevitable but there is usually an underlying reason. At the moment markets are worried that interest rates have not yet brought inflation under control. Global bond rates have been savaged by rising interest rates. The markets reckon that there is 1 more interest rate rise from the Fed this year. As soon as long yield rates drift persistently equity markets should rally significantly.

There has been a TR-1 notice issued today.

If it is of any consolation, despite all the falls, market corrections, crashes, wars, natural disasters and plethora of political decisions, markets have in the past always scaled new heights. Better to be fully invested for most of the time despite the possibility that sometimes wealth seems to evaporate.

I topped up yesterday. Sometimes we are the statue. Today is a pigeon day.

Steph, 2022 was a grim year for investors with the effect of inflation from QT made worse by a war, political upheaval in UK and rising interest rates coupled with the potential for food rationing. The world was beginning to recover post Covid-19 with supply chains disrupted and insufficient people to fill the skilled vacancies for any expansion of business.

I have to be honest in WANTING the share price to remain depressed for another couple of months at least. It gives me time to structure my portfolio to be able to strengthen tomorrows winners and release those that are shining at the moment.

FWIW, the future (as far as my limited vision determines) has growth from businesses involved in mining, pharmaceuticals, IT, AI, leisure and medicine. Yes there will be a few gems in other sectors as the transition away from reliance on fossil fuels will reveal, but without the raw material for energy, World population will continue to grow to ensure that medicines and new medicines will be needed the world will become better connected through commputerisation, Machine Learning (ML) through AI MIGHT do the drudgery work to allow richer people to have more time in leisure activity, but not forgetting that as we age, so medicines to cope with age needs to evolve.

I have to admit, that most of my picks over the last 40 or so years in the theme of medical advance that are in pre-clinical, clinical and Stage 1, have failed and I have taken losses on the nose of around £90,000 from investing directly in listed companies. Having only discovered Investment Trusts in the last 12 years, my appetite for "themed" investment is growing.

The more observant will note I have cancelled my "premium" status. I wanted live prices but these have been so shockingly poor in this site with wild inaccuracies, coupled with an eye watering increase in fee, that my justification to have accurate portfolio valuation can be a day or two out and does not need to be micromanaged.

Recent fall can, in part be attributed to the portfolio exposure to Israel (2.95%).

The '90s recession..... around the time when interest rates were not far off current VAT levels. It is just that these days borrowings are actually out of control. Enough of politics.

Whether we like it or not we have better medicines and higher standards of living than in the previous decades. And as we seem to be in an age of communication so the prospect to actually visit locations outside our normal geography gets more affordable, so travel, or rather leisure will expand. I have added to my holding today. Time will determine the folly or wisdom

And today.

Seems as if the cobwebs are too great to engage. Good luck to all.

Steph, I have no problem with corrections, crashes, outbreaks of hostilities or the myriad of external influence that affects all equities and exchanges. My “go to” worry is financial deception. I like what I see in the accounting records for GROW, but the market is not convonced. Either I or the broader market is wrong.

Right now, I believe I am wrong to continue to expose new cash to buy shares in GROW, hence I am keeping my wallet in my coat pocket. This might be folly, but until there is clear and convincing evidence that the underlying intrinsic valuation has a margin of safety of 50% or more and the company can dispose of assets in the current market, there is no compelling argument to deal in the shares.

Seems an attractive point to add..... with tensions rising between Serbia and Kosovo, a second conflict seems to be bubbling under the surface.