Member Info for Alas_Smith

Despite the doom and gloom in UK and Europe with rising interest rates, inflation and continued mutterings of recession, press reports and statistical “evidence” for increasing business failures are not translating to a rising share price in this company.

Looking at the 2 year chart, at best the share price is treading water. This seems illogical for this business whose core competence should find the business environment a sort of goldilocks time.

I remain of the opinion that recent add-on businesses have been a distraction but I do believe these should be helpful in future years. Quite content to take a loss on the chin to put the proceeds to use elsewhere. Always disappointing when an investment sours, but my faith in the managers to take advantage of the poor business environment has rather evaporated.

Marketing costs are incurred in the persuit of revenue. The old adage that 50% advertising costs are wasted depends on what was advertised and which medium was used. I don't really care about controls of the marketing costs provided that margins are maintained from the "heavyweight" costs (hotels, flights and transfers) and if these can be pre-negotiated then things are pretty rippetty-ting.

My current concern is 2024 bookings as these will be under pressure. The bucket and spade holiday maker might have to stay at home but the long haul traveller is likely to have some clout when it comes to booking premium packages, particularly if there is a group of 6 or more persons.

Our short seller has begun to close position. Small reduction noted on 3 August. Might auger for a change in direction for the share price.

Charliegeorge1, that the directors are not buying implies nothing of the sort. They could be prevented from buying through inside knowledge or close period. They might be recipients of shares as part of a remuneration package or have options that vest.

Sure, "skin in the game" is often seen as beneficial, but buying when the price is depressed can have the signal that the managers are simply propping up a sinking ship and, like rats will be out at the first opportunity. Buying when the market cap has reached an all time high shows confidence and is a lead that is generally applauded by the broader investment community.

Shares in the company are under a short selling attack. It could also be a hedged position. Am I worried that the price seems to be bumping along the base? Well not really as I intend to add from dividends thrown off for other holdings over the next few weeks. Of course, I would prefer that my investment(s) grew daily and evenly. Sometimes there are statue days and others pigeon ones. When you are worried, then sell, recover what you can, stick the money in something that does not provide such concern. Maybe investing in equities is not really for you or your choice of equity is incorrect for your attitude to risk. No idea if this helps you to come to terms with markets and managers but patience is generally rewarded and the less emotion triggered for any investing decision the fewer the mistakes will be.

Hopefully, Mr.Picky, you will be rewarded following the release of new information today.

Reads well to me, but the market has a habit of wanting more from time to time. My holding is deep underwater with plenty of opportunity for me to have averaged down which I have resisted. Perhaps this news will reverse the southbound trend, which, if it does, I might be induced to increase my holding to align it with my original invested percentage, (2%) within my portfolio.

Well, I have taken the opportunity today to dispose of holding in Ibstock and add to holding here.

Results, although poor seem to have been well received by the City. I have taken the opportunity to dispose of my holding.

For comparison, AUGM has released updated information. It might help to get a flavour of what the "opposition" are investing in for depth as breadth of intelligence. I own shares in both trusts. Of course this is not investment advice.

https://augmentum.vc/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Augmentum-Fintech-plc-Factsheet-Q2-2023-1.pdf

Have taken advantage of todays weakness to add a few more shares today.

Mr.Picky, news yesterday of appointment.

The message coming from Europe is in anticipation of banking defaults.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/business/europe-banks-brace-for-loan-defaults/index.html

And while this is NOT at the domestic level, it has all the hallmarks to benefit BEG. And as tasteless, heartless and callous as this sounds, it SHOULD benefit shareholders in BEG.

A paper profit or loss has no merit until converted to cash. I have reduced my holding in NVDA, taken a full profit on UEM and sold my holdings in a few others at a loss. Am sitting on 15% cash after todays activity. Odd that it might seem, I feel that my exposure to European markets needs to be beefed up. I have chucked some cash at HEFT and am contemplating where to invest the balance. Of course, this is not investment advice simply my broad reading of entrails. India is also of appeal.

I've completed a review of my portfolio. It is structured for growth and risk level is high. I am reducing my exposure to UK equities in favour of US, European and Indian markets. Having cashed in a few losers, taken 30% of my holding off the table in NVDA to bank very decent profits, I have started to focus cash in those directions beginning with Europe. My bargain went through at 16:19 today.

Sometimes playing "pin the tail on the donkey" works well, and others, not. In recent months the SP has been trending sideways. This might or might not be a great time to buy shares, but time will determine the wisdom or folly of decision.

If not mistaken, a dividend should land in my wifes ISA account tomorrow. III has been her best performing holding since purchase in 2012.

Although we each fully fund our ISA accounts, we consider our investments as if held jointly to try and get the overall weighting right for our intended outcome. For us, we need to increase our exposure to European and Indian companies, reduce exposure to China.

FWIW, I have no problem buying shares in companies that are at all time highs. Capital growth in III has broadly maintained her 2% weighting and current price is not an unreasonable point to address any weighting imbalance.

MikeBarso, as you know, stock exchanges are forward looking and prices for companies listed are broadly constructed from the future earnings that a company might have.

With rising interest rates, although todays travellers are not affected, tomorrows travellers might be, hence the depressed price for shares that we have today. For me, well, I am constructing my portfolio for 5 years time so WANT the price to remain depressed. I seek capital growth.

I have reduced my holding today. News was poor.

Putting my cards on the table. My investment psyche is long term. I've made plenty of mistakes in the past but those I make these days tend to be limited to timing. BEG is a good example when I bought shares in anticipation of a worsening economy to cause an increase in UK companies in distress. And, I believe I was spot on in such decision, and, despite the overall decline in the value of my investment, correct in the timing to buy.

Long term is 5 years or more (in my book) with medium of 2-5 years and short term everything else.

My reading of the entrails when playing "pin the tail on the donkey" for BEG was that having 6 months of high inflation from the invasion by Russia into Ukraine, that was the trigger for consumer spending to dry up (despite the desire for freedom from the shackles during Covid) and in turn those companies that were poorly capitalised would fail. They did. In ther 6 months following the beginning of the tightening of credit and the increase in interest rates, the next tier of companies would seek relief through re-structure. We are firmly in that stage now, I believe.

The eventual stage will be seen in the next 3 months with the start of recession and expect to last 12 months as businesses contract, close and the reposession of property happen in advance of foreclosure by banks (deliberately to be delayed by current Gov't) until June 2024 (perhaps the countdown to next General Election).

BEG share price should have begun to reflect these things, but it has not and I genuinely do not know why. I have confidence (well, no reason to doubt their talent) in the managers to manage their core competence, business restructure or closure, but the route for acquisition has not presented any real value to shareholders (yet). Companies failing continues to rise and the number as a percentage is actually increasing. So that SHOULD be very beneficial to BEG.

Long term the strategy to have the add-on businesses is terrific, but the immediate past in which these have been announced are that these were poor choices. I hope therefore that now, as the pace of interest rate rises slows, (and it sounds cruel) that good businesses need re-structuring and BEG win a slew of orders to begin to take advantage of the recent add-on companies to profit the ledgers and in turn reflect in the market capital for BEG.

Transpires that there has been a tiny change made by WorldQuant

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BYM1K758/

I’ve never found anything attractive in the activity of borrowing shares, selling them and wanting the share price to collapse before buying those shares in the market and delivering them to the original owners. It was not as if the market cap showed the company to be over valued or that dealing in the shares had become frothy.

New week ahead.

DaddyAIM, in common with you, I am also expecting 2 further interest rate rises, each of 25 basis points but with the caveat that a further 25pt rise might not necessarily be a bad thing.. This is an upgrade on my prediction of a 50pt rise in each of the months of August and September with a 25pt rise in October and November to reach a peak.

A recession always stamps out inflation and usually with huge numbers of casualties. It is possible that the UK evades a recession, but only by the skin of teeth. FWIW, I have no problem in investing in businesses that have the potential for fabulous growth. My problem has always been in timing initial point of entry. HOWEVER, as I like to average up, much better to have some skin in the game and follow those "rules" than try and time an entry and never make a decision.

I've been playing "pin the tail on the donkey" for long enough to accept that mistakes do happen, but that sometimes not only is the tail in the right place, but that the real money can and does step in with some grated ginger to cause the eyes to open and a reaction in the muscles. If the reaction is to the legs, fabulous, to the bowels, not so good.

Until October last year, for the most part the share price for BEG tracked slightly ahead of that for the FTSE 350 index, a measure which I feel is a target to better, which, for the most part, so it did. Since then, the FTSE 350 index has out-performed BEG by a margin that has worsened since mid-January 2023.

A disappointing reflection of the share price for this business whose prospects as business casualties are increasing should be improving. The market can and does get things wrong. Perhaps it is right now having been wrong in the past. I do not like to average down, but I am sorely tempted at this lacklustre price. The managers are not exactly falling over themselves to buy shares to provide any lead and I feel there is no compelling reason other than to wait and see.

If our short seller has increased exposure (no change on shorttracker.co.uk site), I guess must be sweating a little.

With inflation falling, it is possible that the UK might have a softer landing than anticipated though it is a little early to judge. Interest rate may not have peaked as there is the whiff of a couple of further 25 point rises under consideration.