Member Info for Alas_Smith

Traders tend to do what they often do - sell the news and buy the rumour. I'm now back from a refreshing holiday and see nothing to be worried about in todays news so will make no change to my holding.

Looks as if my order has been dealt this week as I add on weakness. Currently enjoying my annual pilgrimmage to the ski slopes.

fwiw, about 20 years ago, i plotted the notional value of £1,000 in the 5 dirtiest industries i could think of, ***s, bomb makers, chemicals, miners etc i put the same notion amounts into the 5 cleanest businesses at the time, it, pharmaceuticals, timber etc.

the dirty companies beat the clean ones over 12 and 24 months by a wide margin. in recent years, my greatest losses have been vls, graphene nanichem and varta. i admire your moral stance, but the decision to bomb gaza cannot be levied at a supplier of weapons. i am content to retain this company in my portfolio for the wide range of defense products that are supplied to the broad protection of countries

Gazzboo, hopefully you will NOT take any advice, however well meaning from unknown persons on a bullettin board. Alessandro feels that the share price has got away with itself (actually, I too feel that the rise has been rather brisk) and that an entry point may be at a lower price than today.

And while 500p in the short (9 months - 1 year) and medium term (2-3 years) may seem a little fanciful, I am expecting that the share price will tip over the 200p mark over the next quarter and perhaps even have a bit of breath to the 230p area.

January is usually a month when fresh capital is put to work on markets world wide. The first few days tend to be atypical of the month as a whole. Many investors will have taken the last few days to examine their holdings and make adjustments. Never wrong to bank a profit, of course, but until a holding is sold, paper profits and losses are simple ledger balances for an account.

Interesting article in todays Times about credit card debt rising through the surge in holiday bookings. Christmas break drawing to a close…. 2023 has been a good year. Hopefully there will be new cash entering markets in January, OTB will have strong bookings and the SP will rise to test (and perhaps scale) previous highs.

A happy and prosperous New Year to all.

Well, we had a little pullback, slightly adrift from my comment a day or so ago. While it is always nice to see the value of an investment rise, this investor gets nervous when the price rise is steep and seemingly without pause.

Happy Christmas.

well, on the assumption that history does not repeat itself, simply rhyme, perhaps the high point will be in late january when the credit cards from celebrating christmas fall on the doormat and the reality that the new year brings for businesses for employees? my post is based on having a 7 figure portfolio built over almost 50 yrs with 80 or so holdings.

i am hoping it will see a test of 200p but we are a little way of that right now. the bear in me says sell now but the bull is holding firm. of course, every market and every investor at this point in the year tries to work out what the future has not just for the individual instrument but also the wider market.

my natural optimism is being hammered by the geo-politics that will present in 2024 for my portfolio as a whole. elections in us, ****stan, india and (probably) uk on the cards. most worrying is us, as, if the "stable genius" returns, might as well kiss goodbye to nato. in uk, a new government is never voted in, but a hopeless government is always voted out.

i have to admit that the gut temptation to sell everything is high.... but reality (for my portfolio) is always to sweat things out until the decision is there for the taking. that there has been an uninterrupted rise in the sp for otb is misleading. a pull-back of 1%-2% is expected by me and the longer that it does not happen the more anxious i am.

tomorrow is another day..... a 2% pulback with a rise on the week is good enough for me to stay.

Bought some more today which I have gifted to a trust fund for my children. Time will determine the folly or wisdom of my decision

My buy order went through at 10:11 this morning. Anyway, I am off to get a flight to Hamburg to do a little Christmas shopping. Last time I went to a German market at Christmas time was in 1958, Hamlin when my father had been posted to Dusseldorf. I was in a pram and don't recall anything of the visit at all. Gluhwein rather than milk this time, will provide some refreshment, I hope.

Short term share price movements are, for an investor irrelevant (for a day trader probably vital) so I am not too fussed on daily movement. What is of much greater interest is where markets are going and what the underlying stimulii to drive the markets.

And interest rates currently hold the key - on the one hand, inflation erodes debt capital and thus welcome, but on the other hand interest charges are elevated and the cost to service that debt is substantial and feared. The US Fed has signalled that interest rates over the pond have peaked and to expect 3 falls in 2024. This has all the hallmarks of a bull run and those businesses that have the greatest chance of success (or failure) are the very businesses in which the manager of GROW invest.

I am prepared to give the team in GROW the benefit of doubt that the companies in which they, and in turn, I have interest are well run and financed. A whiff of something rotten SHOULD ring alarm bells by the managers in GROW and concern will be reflected in their briefing notes with major investors.

Don't forget that MM's are there to make a market - if there is a contract to buy shares for an Institutional Investor (II) and there is little to be bought - the choice is simple - raise the share price to encourage II to take profits or lower the price so that the Private Investor sees their capital disappear and sell to try their luck elsewhere.

IMO short term movements have similar credence as any politician.

Never wrong to bank a profit. I do hope that wherever you place the proceeds, you have similar success. I prefer to let profits run.

Always reassuring when managers dip into pockets - maiden purchase by FD

Well, I certainly would not rely on the share prices published on this site - they are wildly inaccurate and was a reason why I cancelled my premium account plan - the adage of buy the rumour and sell the news will reflect in increased volume today. Todays uplift is reassuring, though it is probably premature to consider the prospect of a dividend.

They read well to me.

Gazzboo, as EasyJet and Ryanair have posted record revenues in their recent announcements, there is implication that OTB will have had decent revenue flows (AND PRESUMABLY) profits. Tour operators/travel agents/holiday companies have automatic leverage in that they receive payments up-front. There is also the VAT relief that is enjoyed where the majority receive refund each quarter from HMRC. My brother sold his tour business almost 20 years ago allowing him to retire aged 40 and never understood how I, as a light engineer was always in trouble financially. He just had no concept of late payment, a VAT bill each quarter and how it was necessary to source the same raw material and reduce reliance on suppliers.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/02/how-rio-tinto-is-poised-to-benefit-from-the-ev-boom.html

FWIW, I am not a fan of EV, preferring a good ol' fashioned diesel to get me through the winters, summers, floods and at the same time transporting spaniel, terrier, wife and adult children while towing a couple of horses. Oh, and I get something like 300 miles from landrover, but if I am not towing anything, then I will take mercedes and get around 900 miles from a tank.

Of course, things are going to change, but I am not convinced that EV's are the way forward. My money is on hydrogen, but I see no reason why miners will go out of business in the short, medium or long term regardless of what I choose to drive or is imposed on me through legislation.

Is it safe to come out yet?

My bargain was executed yesterday. A holding for the patient and removes the emotion of buying shares in a changing world.

Some days we are a statue and others a pigeon

I fear you might be somewhat optimistic in your predictions, but never wrong to be bullish and todays uplift in the SP is welcomed. FWIW, I too am bullish and note that the company has also been tipped in the Investors Chronicle (centre fold page) as a BUY.

30 years ago the record for IC was dreadful and rather better results were delivered if the exact opposite were taken to the analysis provided. These days the information is much better most probably from the power that our connected world provides in terms of computing and information sharing.

Good luck all. I am now winding down in anticipation of Christmas, the prospect of skiing in the New Year and better times ahead for investors worldwide. My interest in shares quoted on UK markets is diminishing but may be re-awakened on a change of Government. Focus is in India and, of course, it is an idiot that bets against US markets.