Member Info for Alas_Smith

Oddly enough, there is argument to use the simplest of technical analysis to provide clue on future share price direction and set limits and targets. If using this approach, probably a good starting point is the 12 month chart.

As far as I can tell it has been not only heading northwards, but, from the low in July was in a pretty rough trend with sharp movements to the up and downside. This was bounded by 2 parallel lines, but earlier this month, the upper band seems to have been broken. The share price is climbing at a decent pave without the sharp movements.

I’ve no idea what target price could be, so would look at the 5 year chart for inspiration. Well, that is not much help as we are pushing new boundaries. The 5 year chart does show the trend to be up and showing no sign of falling. I’d go with that until something changes, probably politically.

Todays results have been well received.

Https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/fca-to-visit-fund-managers-this-year-in-private-asset-valuation-probe/a2438951

It would be nice to have a reaction to mirror that from III (in which I have interest) after a capital markets seminar.

With III the principle investment that is the driver for the share price is the supermarket chain, Action. The main holding for GROW seems to be Graphcore where, despite all the hype on AI and processors, it is not translating (yet) into meaningful return.

I like to average holdings up and, perhaps with GROW I will be able to do so in the future, but for the moment Graphcore is an unloved asset

Run your profits and cut your losses. Of course, this is not investment advice but it is never wrong to take money off the table from time to time. Besides, a profit that is banked is real, whereas a paper one is at the mercy of the market.

There is a more compelling case to buy shares in BAE than there is to sell them at the moment based on the committments that Governments around the world have made to defence spending. I had hoped that now, in the 21st century that countries would not engage in war and that the only reason for a defence policy and arms was in response to terrorism and isolated events. Naive of me as Ukraine, Gaza and Haiti demonstrate to the world.

I've dipped a toe in yesterday. Time will determine the wisdom or folly of this decision

SD235, for a single holding to represent such a substantial percentage of a portfolio, it suggests you either have an "all or nothing" approach or at the stage of building a portfolio with few holdings. I can therefore understand why you are a little twitchy. I have disposed of 2/3rds my holding in NVDA over the last 3 months, not because it is a poor investment, simply that the holding was skewing my portfolio - great on pigeon days but grim on the statue ones.

The performance record of III is exemplary and I am pretty certain that the share price will double in the next 5 years. I continue to add in my SIPP account (IHT planning).

Fromage, I am eligible to draw a State Pension in the near future. I had increased my risk tolerence from Med/High to High in 2022 (timing was poor), but I have only a tiny SIPP for IHT planning. The bulk of wealth is sheltered in ISA wrapper.

In targetting capital growth and drawing no more than 3% from portfolio, my long term growth, despite the occasional year when things sour, is 13.25% to include the reinvestment of any cash thrown off by way of dividend.

Growth of capital should ensure sufficient hedge for inflation.

If we ignore the merits of newspapers, perhaps if we look at interest rates from the perspective of trying to find a consensus that benefits the banking sector, borrowers domestic and commercial and taxation for whatever shambolic outfit is operating the agenda for the UK, then surely that is the "sweet spot" come rain or shine and it needs very little deviation except for specific events.

I know this sounds utopian, but I'm pretty sure that base rates of 4% would be in the best interests of all. Not too high to cause recession, not too low for inflation to be worrysome and certainly about right so that businesses and people are not bankrupted from high debt service cost.

The Telegraph is a paper I no longer read, steph. I have a feeling that interest rates will fall in US in June, though with a glimmer of a tiny cut in May. Mr Biden spoke in Las Vegas yesterday and it is clear (to me) that he is in favour of more manufacturing in USA and more exports from USA. A falling dollar will help exports.

FWIW, although I am at the end of my working life and at the point when journalists and others of influence suggest a 60/40 portfolio of bonds/equities, my portfolio remains firmly aligned with 100% exposure to equities.

Since there is no expiry date in my birth certificate and I fully expect to last for the next 30 years, there is absolutely no reason why my portfolio should not target capital growth and with my risk at HIGH, a potentially greater return can be expected.

Unless a bond is priced to yield at least 13.25%, from a blue chip, I am not interested. Could I be tempted at 9%? No. What about 6%? Well, plenty of funds will want that sort of return.

Things have got a whole heap worse.

Misery will end at some point I expect. Trying to find an attractive point to break a rule and average down. A potential target for a bid?

Mention is todays Times. Seems that GROW has a 20% stake. Might be behind paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/perkbox-and-vivup-sales-reap-millions-for-founders-htz2zw7xd

My drivel probably holds little value, but, steph, there is often a point when fortunes are reversed. GROW is not like a penny mining stock nor a Phase 1 pharmaceutical developer. Grow, as we know invests in businesses that are in very early stage. Yes, they have an idea, a plan, probably sales and an enthusiastic workforce. They have al the potential for rapid growth or a cash haemorrhage only to limp onwards.

We as investors HAVE to trust the managers that decide whether to invest in the myriad of opportunities that are presented. After all, we probably all know a Kevin or a Paul that has aptitude for something and just lacks the cash to take on a new Molly to run the books, Tim to help on the floor or Amy to bill the customers and take payments - we none of us begrudge lending anything from £50 to £500 to help them buy the piece of equipment or the missing link to expand.

We are not dealing with these micro enterprises - this is the stage where not only have they exhausted parents, relatives, friends etc, but now they need the start of the big bucks. The costs to bridge the gap between a tiny business of 3-5 persons to a business that supports 20-50 people. It is the organic growth where insufficient cashflow and capitalisation will kill the entrepreneur that does not have deep pockets.

I know what the entrepreneur goes through - in the past I failed 5 times for 2 different reasons (1 was through embezzlement and 4 through lack of cash) but on the 6th, success resulted and business is in its 15th year of trading. I've not quite reached the salary of a Country let alone a City mouse, but a pretty good one for a Peasant one. Had I known about GROW or that ilk 50 or so years ago, I would certainly have made approach.

Sentiment changes. The valuation for GROW assumes most of the holdings are worthless. This cannot be correct and patience is needed.

With a merger of broad and strong equals, I foresee a re-weighting of assets are a small reduction in costs

The additional link seems to imply that GROW had invested around $30m. Anyway, brilliant spot and thank you for bringing it to our attention.

My holding remains underwater. The only consolation is the 4 figure dividend received over the course of a year. Price remain static and 3 years will have me at break even.

This is mo cause for celebration. I invest for capital growth.

Do you mean that you have rattled some bones, swirled the dregs of a cuppa and examined the entrails to determine that the share price will continue to rise?

Wherever I can, I try and be balanced in my commentary. my decision to sell was not just to lock in the profits from previous purchase points but also that I neither like Ryanair as a company or the managers of that company - aggressive and slippery to the extent that I do not trust the company. Partnership with OTB therefore does not fit well as far as I am concerned.

I do own shares in EZJ which is very much aligned to short haul. I have been tempted to buy shares in Jet2 but have resisted as the fleet mainly comprises Boeing 737's and Boeing has a terrible reputation at the moment and seems to be getting worse by the week. My caution to shareholders now is not with OTD (as I think it is a fine company) but with Ryanair and its reliance on Boeing. I can see an awful summer if Boeing is grounded and has a knock on effect on small carriers that cannot replace their aging fleet.

Sorry if this smacks of de-ramping. It is this most recent decision which I find troubling. Oh, and I placed the proceeds on GROW and RFX

A few more added today. Time will determine the wisdom or folly of decision