Member Info for Alas_Smith

Joaung1, they have not re-iterated as far as I can tell. However, we approach mid-summers day and thus as summers moves towards autumn, so there is liklihood that they will begin to reduce exposure for funds under management. There are also jitters around Europe following snap election call by UK and France as well as those in the European Parliament.

We have in the UK on the one hand Mr Sunak promising the world on a stick if re-elected, Farage wading in which is likely to split the Conservative vote and the middle ground well and truly the target for Starmer. Although support will remain in place for Ukraine, the defence policy does seem to have the same 2.5% spend of GDP in focus, albeit that the timescale is not spelled out.

Todays drop, is, I think just jitters over Europe though as the year advances, so it will make sense to keep an eye on the 200 day moving average in case it fails.

The market cannot rule out Trump's re-election with the chaos that is likely to return. Putin has pitched conditional peace talks and Ukraine is struggling not only with weaponry but also manpower. The importance to shore up NATO, replenish stock gifted to support Ukraine and committed orders for defence more than outweigh todays jitters. But always at the back of an investors mind is that a comment from GS does shift markets

Goldman Sachs have announced that they believe there is more downside than upside for defence stocks going into 2025.

Phoenetically there are a few in English that are useful to know:

Rows - boat

Rows - houses

Rose - flower

Rose - colour

Rose - past particible of rise

Rhos - greek letter

Roes - fish eggs

Roes - young deer

Todays results have been well received. I hope that a line has been drawn under the past and we have seen the base for the share price. For my little holding, the SP needs to double for me to break even. I do not invest with the intention to break even and prefer to average up. I'd rather forgotten about this holding but can see that I get almost £200 each year by way of a dividend from this. 40 years worth of dividends will also bring me to break even. Not one of my better picks.

Interesting research note has been published today.

https://quoteddata.com/research/blackrock-throgmorton-trust-get-it-while-the-price-is-goodget-it-while-the-price-is-good-qd

As far as I am concerned share buybacks demonstrate to me a lack of imagination by the management. Where the managers cannot grow the company organically, growth can be achieved through acquisition. Sometimes growth is too rapid and considered folly. Marconi is a good example, though I digress. When both growth routes are exhausted, surplus cash can buy shares for scrip or cancellation or distributed as dividends.

Given a choice between more shares by way of scrip, my holding representing a greater percentage of the capital in the company or cash to decide for myself, I have always chosen cash

Well, whatever enthusiasm that was anticipated has evaporated. s'pose I'll hang on over the summer but as this is in an ISA, I will take any loss on the chin as it cannot be applied to CGT. Now the hard work starts in finding a company in the same sector that has better prospects - Diageo, AB In Bev and a few others spring to mind - I will next post when my holding has been sold.

I find it a little odd to worry about inter- and intra- day prices unless moving substantial sums of money and dealing as a trader. While it might seem unusual, I don't think I have met any day trader in the (almost) 50 years in building my portfolio. I do know, 4 hugely successful venture capitalists, 3 investment analysts, 3 fund managers and am the (very) occasional guest to City functions. All have the same information as you and I, the difference is that for every equity, they apply the same tests to determine if an investment will be profitable.

Every one of them have admitted to mistakes and almost all involve the decision to sell. In short, it is very easy to buy well but the difficulty is knowing when or if to sell.

Returning to BAE, trying to finesse when to buy is almost as idiotic as trying to finesse when to sell. That my short term might be 30 years (for that is my probable maximum lifespan remaining) or long term (for you) might be 18 months is quite irrelevant. This is a company that is influenced geo-politically and has the added complication that it cannot be sold to a foreign state without Government consent.

So.... the bull points are that Russia has invaded Ukraine and for the last 2 years, conventional tactics are used in such a fight. Next, Ukraine is right on the border with those in the Nato Alliance and the loss of Ukraine has peril for countries sharing a border with Russia and others vulnerable to Russian ambition. The defence therefore is to gift to Ukraine surplus weapons and buy TIME for our own defence. This allows Nato countries to upgrade weapons and bring the potential danger of war to those in the Nato bloc which started with huge rise in energy costs and the inflationary effect it has on food. Inflation is, these days, controlled with interest rates and anyone who has borrowed in recent years understands the additional cost to their disposable income.

The beligerant ramblings of Trump have further brought the cost of peace to focus and whether or not he is returned to power, all in Nato understand that more must be done to pay for protection. These mean that the order book for BAE (and others) will remain at record levels and for a few years after whatever outcome is reached for Ukraine

The IC tipping record has improved immeasurably in recent years. Some 30 odd years ago, it could be compared with the legend, Bob Beckman. For those that have never heard of Bob Beckman, he was an American that had a one/two minute slot each morning on LBC commenting on markets during the 1970's and '80's. He had made and lost several fortunes, but was a very engaging chap.

Provided that you did exactly the opposite that he recommended, you would tend to be up. Markets were very choppy in those days and unless able to afford discretionary portfolio management (£50,000 was the minimum) then you relied on word of mouth and newspapers for your research. One of his memorable comments used was that "the market was like an elevator, with a lunatic at the controls".

Anyway, this is likely to be my last post on this board. I am content with my holding, intend to add to it as circumstances permit as, aside from being a well managed company that is inherently defensive in a portfolio, organic growth should follow as the world returns to normal.

Bank of Canada reduced interest rates today, Europe is expecting a cut tomorrow. These should help to bring investors back to equities.

Thank you for your diligent research and contributions.

Numbers read well enough to me though the market reaction has been a little disappointing. Early in the day, of course but, as far as I am concerned no compelling reason to sell.

We do not know for certain that all the bargains have been recorded and published. Sometimes, particularly if there is a large buy order to satisfy, the MM will mark the shares down to trigger selling and thus able to deliver. I do not worry about movements such as this. After all, it is a lightly traded security, there is no new news to my knowledge. Perhaps that only thing to consider is that we start a new month next week and there are changes in the constituents of indices.

Goldman have a buy note. Target 15000

Another down day........not one of my better picks. Prefer to sell into strength

I've taken the decision to take 10% of my holding off the table to lock in a 40% uplift and will keep an eye on things. Difficult to see where future growth is coming from unless interest rates start to fall in the US. And that prospect seems to be being pushed back to the late Autumn and quite possibly early winter.

I've added a few more today in my SIPP. Won't move the price but a nice little pot boiler company.

My purchase this morning is marked as a sell.

It will be interesting to see what priority is given after the General Election to defence and the implication is has on spending for such defence.

My feeling is that there has been a huge under-investment in the basics - boots on the ground, basic weapons, protective clothing, field surgery and strategic command. Wars are won on troop morale and money.

Ukraine has morale with something to fight for led by a passionate President. The finance of a war in another country will always be contentious.

The SP got carried away in frothy market. It seems now to be fairly valued. Not convinced that the managers are able to grow profits except with new mixers and more outlets stocking and promoting their products.

Ready to take a haircut and put proceeds to work elsewhere

Solid statement which reads well to me.

I've added a few more today as I put dividends to work. My bargain will not move the price, but it seems a good entry point.