Member Info for Alas_Smith

Back in August, I wrote that there would few contributions from me. Time provides perspective and investors understand the benefit of planning not for today or this year but for 5, 10, 20 and, perhaps 50 year horizons.

We can thus ignore the posturing of politics to determine geographies for success, sectors to shape and mould our investments to align with common sense analysis. It is very easy to become ensnared with the minutiae that determines each day and for investors, “noise” is the distraction that needs to be ignored.

For me defence is a mixture of cyber protection of critical infrastructre, some weaponry to detect, some to deter and some to dissuade. Hence my portfolio has its root in these sectors.

Building on that root are the sectors needed for the root to survive, flourish and spawn new growth, money, minerals and communication. And people, of course are needed to produce food, run banks, harvest ideas and ensure innovation for futures unknown.

We transition from an age of communication to one of awareness. I don’t yet feel that we are in the age of intelligence, but it nears. The ground rules are not yet in place and there has been too much misinformation for reliance on AI just yet…..

Not every investment decision goes broadly to plan despite the diligent research undertaken before parting with some cash. It is part and parcel of the peril and joy that investors experience. I've sold up the balance of holding in this and 2 others in portfolio for a considerable loss. The financial loss will be recovered in time.

I have learned in the last 45 years in building my portfolio that good to treat it as a massive jigsaw. Get the structure right and gradually the different pieces when put together have a solid shape. Important to try to get new pieces fitting together but time allows the picture to evolve.

In time will put the cash from this and a few other holdings sold today to work elsewhere. Might even re-visit any of the companies that originally caught my eye. Whether the decision is good or bad in the very short term (3 months), is unimportant as I have lost confidence in the managers of this company.

More to do with the launch in China of a version of AI

Looks as if the NASDAQ is off 3%

While I have never felt that short selling has investment merit, I tend to pay heed to those that do sell short. These days such activity tends to be in the guise of contracts for difference. Right now FWIW, the upside seems to hold great prospect with poor argument to sell short.

Adjustment will be made to my portfolio in March and April as advantage is taken to move assets to ISA shelter for self and wife. A 10 year periodic charge falls due for a discretionary trust that I created in 2015. There is a little space remaining on the rolling 7 year rule to ensure that assets fall out of our estate to neither incur CGT nor partial IHT.

It is a bit of a juggling act where the attraction to leave UK and seek residency in a different country is a serious consideration. Have decided to sell main residence and consider options from a position of strength.

Whiff of merger in air with Glencore

The advantage of time as an investor is perspective. I've made many mistakes but few have been repeated. Many more will be made despite the bald fact that I have realistically fewer than 30 years remaining on this planet and more likely just 25.

I've recently added to my holding in HILS, not because it is a holding that will set the world alight, but more that its products (and earnings) are used in geographies that take their products for granted and constantly upgraded.

Politically, we have 4 years of Trump 2.0 and while it is likely to be chaotic through "policy" that is created on the fly and abandoned in the same breath, I doubt it will have anything that will astonish the world and be handed down to posterity as a decision of greatness.

Trump, as far as I am concerned has a pygmy intellect, the vocabulary of a 9yr old and the charm of a skunk. Perhaps these are qualities which are admired these days? Anyway, this is a company which is as dull as ditchwater on one to hold for decades (and forget)

Steph, I am not an economist and although I have owned gilts twice in the last (almost) 50 years, I don't understand how coupons and yields work and thus only a passing interest in the bond market.

Markets often surprise and what appears to be good news is interpreted as bad. Employment numbers up by 250,000 in USA has pushed the chance of lower interest rates back six months, perhaps more. The ripple effect affects currencies the world over through the pricing of commodities which tend to be in dollars.

On the domestic front, I will argue that the Chancellor has over stepped the mark insofar as the City are concerned, where having wooed them in the months prior to the General Election has lost support through the imposition of too great a burden on business. Additionally, the policies as far as the electorate are concerned show no incentive for growth with policies detrimental to our raison d'etre. Silly things such as the axing of the winter fuel allowance in a dreadfully cold snap and eye-watering wages for semi-skilled train drivers (many times that for a Junior Doctor).

What should be addressed is the crippling cost for commuters in an effort to actually bring workers back to the office followed by the motivation of what has become a shy workforce. If something is to be done in March, then make it really beneficial to go to work.

Markets have become nervous that the worlds most important stock market (America) will face inflationary pressure once Mr Trump takes over the reins. The worlds 2nd most important market, China, is scheduled to grow slightly below forecast to cause further nervousness. The 3rd most influential stock market, UK has the worry that the pathetic growth forecast in the recent budget has actually been snuffed out by the sweeping tax raising measures that have left even the most bullish entrepreneur scratching their head and wondering whether the hard work to run a business is actually viable.

Don't get me wrong, I have been a tart when it comes to voting with a tick for the party that ultimately held the rein of power (even in a coalition) every General Election since the late 1970's. Not to say that a new government is votedin, simply that an old one is voted out.

Politics aside. Interest rates will determine the future share price direction for GROW and only once they start to fall. It is probably not a good time to dispose of any one of the holdings so the share price will drift and at best go sideways. It does give me, even though I probably have no more than 30 years remaining on this planet opportunity to buy share at a good price in advance of a disposal in better economic times.

FWIW, Mr Trump achieved nothing during his first term, is likely to repeat it this time too. Why? Well, "policy"is made on the hoof as he behaves more like an eel than a mountain lion. A waste of space, but his measure of success will be that markets rise under his watch. And that, I hope, they will.

UserSteve - that EFT has nothing whatsoever to do with LGEN as it is a completely separate entity

I've taken the opportunity to add a little more to a holding in a SIPP for one of my children. It is one of a few equities that is not an Investment Trust in that portfolio.

We are likely to have 4 turbulent years with Mr Trump creating policy on the fly and, IMO, to the detriment of US interests on the world stage. The whipsawing of "policy" in his first term demonstrated that nothing could be achieved (except to get journalists terribly excited) and no doubt the same will happen in his forthcoming term.

At the end of August, I mentioned that I had written my capital in this investment off. The share price has declined further and, I too have reviewed my holdings in case I need to have a closer look at this company. Unlike mfdoom and Overtrader, I do not see a compelling reason to chuck any more cash at this company until the next set of numbers come out over which I can run a slide rule.

I extend the hope for a prosperous New Year to all investors.

Thank you Actuary63. It is very diffiult to manage ones childens investments, particularly if ones own investments are managed professionally. A SIPP in its formative years has 40 years to grow and then needs to last 30 years in retirement. Total return is required with ballast that throw dividends and have stable share price movement, companies that have potential for rapid growth and a few speculative holdings for good measure.

This is ballast holding.

The trust published updated factsheet at beginning of November with numbers up to 31 October. The rise in share price simply narrows the discount to the NAV and has been helped with an aggressive share buy back.

The published numbers with a solid narrative has a confident tone. Dividend raised which will make more attractive to institutional buyers. Hopefully analysts will give a slew of positive recommendations to encourage perkier times for market makers..

Some will be getting slide rules out to crunch numbers, but I prefer the narrative that paints a picture of how the fund is performing with some tail and headwinds in place. They read well to me, despite a confusing comment about share price % change through 2 instances of “from” when one should have been “to”, but the broad sentiment I draw is that the fund has an attractive discount to NAV. The discount frustrates the managers and that they wish this to address this to benefit shareholders. Easing of interest rates de-risks matters.

Hopefully, institutional investors will share enthusiasm to see a perkier day for market makers

Back in August, I was able to provide a chunky gift to my children, around 5% of my capital under investment. Timing was lucky as markets fell in September with October as one of the worst in a bull market I have known. Since then, my portfolio is on schedule for overall growth in 2024 of 11.83%.

Aside from another 4 years of chaos from the next president of the US, markets are expecting 2025 to be another bull year, perhaps comparable with 2024. And this duffer knows that there is no point in trying to fight the market or trying to finesse timing. I'm therefore maintaining a HIGH risk strategy until around May and then beginning to de-risk for the remainder of the year.

Early indications for (on the hoof ) policy is that another Trump administration will be inflammatory perhaps pushing the balance to recession. I've no problem with recession or market downturns PROVIDED my portfolio has sufficient exposure to defensive equities.

Good fortune to all. Interesting times ahead.

Well, the pick of Mr Kennedy, a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist, is not going to be very helpful in the short term for health companies, but worse and potentially disastrous for lives in America.

Tariffs that are proposed are unlikely to help but the world is a far bigger place than America.

Of high concern to me is that the policy by Reeves has all the hallmark of putting UK into recession by February to be followed by US in similar recession by end of 2025. This investor is meeting with the managers of my dealing accounts to accumulate cash, reduce exposure to higher risk sectors in favour of consumer staples and those involved in M & A with a further focus on strengthening investments in European, Indian and Chinese companies

9.2% NAV

There is a growing worry of recession according to analysts such as JP Morgan. This is a good defensive holding along with others in the consumer staples sector. Intend to add on weakness

Have bought back (plus a little more) the shares that sold in August. While this might give the illusion that I am a trader, I am not. With a change of President in the US which has had the initial reaction of uplift in US. With the proposal for tariffs drawing closer, the impact will be far reaching for many. I suspect that as India is now the 4th most important market in the world, just behind Singapore, it will be pushing to take 3rd spot in the next couple of years. Market returns should be better than average if that comes to pass.