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Although I have now disposed of my shares in BEG at a loss, I maintain an interest in this company. Has all the implied hallmarks that it should be thriving, but it is just not reflected in the share price. I’m sure the article below will have been seen by many. FWIW, my holding in RFX is not looking too bright either but at least it is in positive territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/11/zombie-firms-uk-interest-rates-insolvency-begbies-traynor-profits
The rules on REITs are well documented. https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/guides/tax-treatment-of-reits and https://www.britishland.com/investors/shareholder-information/scrip-dividend-scheme/reits-dividends-and-uk-tax will give you a pretty good foundation. I hope this helps.
For my own part, I have avoided them as inappropriate for me and my circumstances.
Jonathb - I've been around the block for many decades with my first investment in late 1970's - the most important lesson that I have taken from my investments (and many of them proved to be hopeless) was not to average down but to average up. The second most important was to be as fully invested as possible, third was that there are always going to be pigeon days and statue ones.
Investment trusts have, it could be argued, fewer risks than directly investing in equities. And, since both buyer and seller of shares believe that their decision to place a bargain is brilliant, time will betray the wisdom or folly of that decision. Investing is not a race and, with the exception of an initial offering allows investors to pick and choose the times and amounts in which to deal.
Gettingthere67, rather than considering one IT in isolation, better to look at the broad market around the world as this may provide an explanation that is helpful. The world was impacted by lockdowns of varying levels that disrupted supply chains everywhere. Vaccination, and for many 3 doses required, has brought an end to the pandemic but variants remain and strains still cause death. The world began to emerfge from this so that only now is it pretty well back to the point in 2019 when Covid 19 broke out.
The war in Europe caused massive disruption to food production and oil and gas prices, which, co-incided with raising taxes to begin to pay for the containment of Covid. This war remains burdensome but help for Ukraine is necessary for broad peace. Inflation from the "easy money" days that basically propped up he housing market, banks and some infrastructure has come home to roost and the only tool really that is used is interest rates. This might (and I believe will yet) cause recession.
Interest rate rises put businesses that are struggling out of business quite quickly and this we are seeing with an increase in insolvency numbers. Recessions take out larger businesses that are reliant on turnover because margins are tiny. Any whiff of a rise in interest rate generally causes a flight of cash from equities to gilts to reduce risk.
Investing in fledgling companies has a greater risk than investing in a mature company. Mature companies are not immune from going bust - Marconi was a great example. The NAV might be correct but is discounted to reflect risk. And the assets that provide the valuation are in unquoted businesses, are illiquid and may not be able to raise additional capital. This affectss ability to exploit opportunity or weather storms such as recession etc.
Markets get carried away sometimes both when rising and if falling. Since an investment trust is different from an open ended fund, shares in the trust can be bought or sold. If you are worried about your holding, better to recover what you can and put the proceeds to better use elsewhere. But that is your decision and advice, however, well meaning from a board such as this might not be correct, appropriate or have any relevence to you and should really be ignored.
Well, I have just listened to the 3 minute broadcast to present compelling reason to invest in UEM. And, yes, I do own shares in this investment trust and, yes I do continue to accumulate shares. BUT, the share price performance has for the last 5 years been pretty dismal and range bound. I've not got a problem with that as an investor because this holding is one that represents ballast and protection in downturns.
The podcast was as turgid as the share price. This is a ballast holding in a growth portfolio and that is all. If considering this on its own account, the the rationale needs to be contextual. Income thrown off is solid but nothing to write home about. The managers extend passion to provoke argument on the merit of rice pudding vs tapioca with the enthusiasm of a wilting banana.
It remains a buy for me as my portfolio (structured for growth) gradually improves
Surely it is not in the interest of any Government to reduce the number of potential suppliers? Pretty pointless buy and rightly so, the SP has been marked down.
It is not in the interest of the analysts that publishes information to call things incorrectly. After all, it is their decisions that influence fund and pension managers.
I notice that OTB gets a mention in news today. That is a holiday company and are seeing increased demand for bookings to Turkey and Egypt through favourable exchange rates.
This sort of news provides confidence that there is activity in one facet of RFX business. On the horology side, watch prices are slipping at the very top end (Patek Philippe etc) at auction which might encourage activity at the next tier down (Rolex, Audemars Piguet etc) to convert stock to cash.
I remain a holder though the share price does seem weak at the moment.
Little snippet of news where OTB is seeing increased booking in Egypt and Turkey and, a change in the share holding by World Quant.
Alessandro, charting is brilliant right up to the point when the direction changes. It MAY have some relevance on a heavily traded equity that is the subject of research from most, if not all major brokers, but on a tiddler then it is as relevant as pin the tail on the donkey.
Trying to work out where the bottom is, is a mugs game. If basically you believe (as I do) that the company is well run has a decent track record and the prospects for an improving future, then drip feed cash to smooth out the average price. I am not willing to commit more than 1% portfolio to OTB. Sure, I am underwater but thus far I have committed just 20% of that 1% and will add to my holding next month.
The share price may rise or fall, but I am hopeful that the chart will trend sideways for a few months and then advance north. It really depends on interest rates and the appetite for holidays.
My buy order was fulfilled today
My order to add a few more shares today was executed.
My order to buy was executed this morning.
Chunky manager buy published tiday
Might have something to do with TUI
https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/fy23_q3_results
There's nothing really to say to you to allay your concern. The flippant answer is that there is always 100% for the share price to fall from todays price. If it helps, try and look beyond the noise of the market whether it is local to UK or worldwide and concentrate on facts. Ignore the short seller as, at some point the position will be closed and attention transferred to a different company.
Banks are using the blunt instrument of interest rates to stamp out inflation. Higher interest rates affect those with the least buffer, earning power and flexibility. Highly likely that they will be at the limits of their means for this year and should interest rates continue to rise, then they will be in real trouble. Un-necessary expense will be eliminated, not for this year as it is already committed but for next year. The share price today reflects the likely impact on revenues for next year. Next years holidays are beginning to the priced in today, of that makes sense.
With the concentration to the longer haul and higher spending traveller, hopefully profit margins will be maintained or increased despite a reduction in turnover. Those going on long haul holiday will be less impacted by rising interest rates and the managers are sensibly growing that side.
At some point consumers will adjust to 5% to 6% interest rates as they did from the mid '60s to 2008. It is a bit of a shock right now, that is all.
I doubled the holding for elder son on 1 August. Seems that my lead has been followed by a manager in todays RNS. It is rare for me to average down but with inflation beginning to fall, interest rates starting to bite and no end to the political nonsense that USA finds itself in my hunch that smaller companies would benefit as the world emerged from Covid 19 was mis-timed.
Despite the doom and gloom in UK and Europe with rising interest rates, inflation and continued mutterings of recession, press reports and statistical “evidence” for increasing business failures are not translating to a rising share price in this company.
Looking at the 2 year chart, at best the share price is treading water. This seems illogical for this business whose core competence should find the business environment a sort of goldilocks time.
I remain of the opinion that recent add-on businesses have been a distraction but I do believe these should be helpful in future years. Quite content to take a loss on the chin to put the proceeds to use elsewhere. Always disappointing when an investment sours, but my faith in the managers to take advantage of the poor business environment has rather evaporated.
Marketing costs are incurred in the persuit of revenue. The old adage that 50% advertising costs are wasted depends on what was advertised and which medium was used. I don't really care about controls of the marketing costs provided that margins are maintained from the "heavyweight" costs (hotels, flights and transfers) and if these can be pre-negotiated then things are pretty rippetty-ting.
My current concern is 2024 bookings as these will be under pressure. The bucket and spade holiday maker might have to stay at home but the long haul traveller is likely to have some clout when it comes to booking premium packages, particularly if there is a group of 6 or more persons.
Our short seller has begun to close position. Small reduction noted on 3 August. Might auger for a change in direction for the share price.