Member Info for Alas_Smith

Steph, I do not believe we are on the cusp of WW3. The Iran / Middle East could escalate and have additional backing from Russia. China, the other major ally to Iran is unlikely to get involved but it could use the situation as camoflage for its claim over Taiwan.

Perhaps, if Russia is successful in Ukraine, it might embolden Putin to NATO states in the Baltics, which, if Trump were returned to power would present some crisis.

These conflicts seem to have the stamp of Authoritarianism vs Democracy. But, it the call went out, I would be ready to play whatever role is needed that I can usefully do for the persuit of peace.

Oddly enough, although the capital that I have invested in this IT is underwater, dividends received mean that I am slightly ahead. No compelling reason to sell but there is a decent investment case to add more.

Market gains, and in particular tech led ones in America have had a spectacular 6 months that began in October and lasted right up to the end of March. All that is happening IMO is a correction which, coupled with the FED dismissing prospects of an early interest rate cut, geo-political problems in Middle East and the callous behaviour of the Republican Party in USA in the procrastination of support for Ukraine has seen a sharp drop as investors bank profits.

This is, although painful in the short term, to be welcomed (again, my opinion) because as markets hit new highs, so it iw worrysome and encouraging in equal measure. Growth was confined to a few companies but is now beginning to broaden and, in time will extend to the smaller and smallest companies.

'fraid it is a situation where keeping a cool head is needed, doing nothing and sweating things out, sensible and for those fortunate to have spare funds on the side being able to cherry pick new investments or strengthen existing holdings if appropriate.

In times such as this, I compare an acorn with an oak tree and remind myself that the acorn has greater potential than a mature tree. For myself, from being up 12% at the end of march, I am up just 3% today and although currently sitting on 1.5% cash not sure that the turbulence is over quite yet.

Was there not a cyber attack in September 2022 year on Revolut? Not sure what effect it has had (if any) on the underlying valuation, but I believe it cost the company about £20m to sort out.

Have tucked a few more away today, this time for elder son in his ISA

Kicking off in the Middle East this evening.

Seems that my holding in bombs, f@gs and chemicals continue to outperform the touchy feely woke inspired equities that have struggled for years

EyesOfBlue, the first advantage of having built up a portfolio was to reach the point where it made sense to have it managed on a discretionary basis which I did in 2008. The second is that all the lessons learned the hard way are not generally repeated and I am concentrate in building up investments for my children.

When I started my first investment back in 1977, I forced myself to save £15 each month from my salary and topped things up with bonuses, Christmas and birthday money. In those days, the minimum practical amount I would invest was £500 and bargains were executed through my bank in a face to face meeting. As my salary increased, I continued to save the same percentage of pay - the big transformation was made with the proliferation of online dealing.

Nowadays, although my salary has remained the same for the last 10 years at a pitiful £26,000, I can and do save £600 each month for a "rainy day". £300 is for my wife and I, £100 invested for my 2 sons (aged 30 and 28 and started when they were aged 16) and £200 into a trust that I setup in 2015 to mitigate IHT.

The discretionary accounts were structured for capital growth and have done very well indeed. Capital under investment is now growing at almost 6x salary with dividends thrown off equivalent to 25% salary. At the point when I retire, I shall still target capital growth but draw between 2% and 3% from capital to have a very comfortable retirement. After all, a ski holiday in the winter, 2 horses in livery and a love of fine art tends to come with a hefty price tag. We started to draw from these last year following a substantial inheritance as a generation closed and I now head our family tribe.

Not sure if their holding is notifiable, but worth keeping an eye on portfolio changes as disposals, even when planned can with small companies take a little time to clear and, on occasion, provide opportunity for the retail investor to accumulate a decent quantity at beneficial rates

Nothing wrong in banking a profit. It is also very healthy for a pullback form time to time. After all, the defence sector has had a very decent 3 year run and, whether we like it or not, defence spending is not showing any sign of drying up.

Insofar as to whether the old adage of "sell in May...." holds any sway nowadays. Well, I'm afraid that that went out at the point of "Big Bang", the expansion of markets worldwide as well as the number of people taking an interest in their money.

Markets have had a good run in the first quarter of 2024 that built on that from October 2023.

For younger son in his SIPP

Interesting article from Charles Stanley https://www.charles-stanley.co.uk/insights/commentary/the-future-of-nato

There was a small mention in this weeks copy of Investors Chronicle. In the main the article (P32) concentrates on Chrysalis which having had a torrid 5 years seems to have tarnished others with distrust of valuations. And, in terms of discount GROW receives a mention as it is at a nearly 70% discount.

The "silver lining" that, for my money is really what the article should be about but is rather buried, is that investors MUST monitor the holdings in such portfolio for signs of progress...... and by implication (my words) be prepared to take advantage of any discount.

Anyway, the article has rather more focus on the issues in Chrysalis, though, with the substitution of names and holdings, much can be applied to GROW as it does with CHRY.

Trump might actually be in breach of Stock Exchange rules with the SPAC that floated. Not that such things seem to matter to the "stable genius". Markets seem not to care if he is elected. If he is elected in 2024, I wonder if there will be a 2028 election.

As we know, markets tend to move en-bloc and more often than not play "follow the leader". So, where US has a good day it is followed by a good day in Asia, then Europe before opening again in USA for the cycle to start all over again.

This year, the S & P has had a great start albeit that it has slipped back a little as investors take a breather. After all, January, February and March saw an uplift of 11% which has now slipped back to 8.5% versus the FTSE that has only just got out of bed with a gain for the year to date of 2.26%. It had been in negative territory for most of January and February. In turn, investors are shunning the UK in favour of holdings over the pond. I am one such investor where 15 of my top 20 holdings are quoted on either DOW or NASDAQ.

Again, returning to the broad direction of markets - these have for the last 100 or so years risen, though, of course, not always evenly. Crashes happen as do recoveries. Bull markets run out of steam and even when things are rising rapidly, there are down days, and sometimes quite sharp drops. These pauses might last a day or two, perhaps a week or a month but don't immediately herald either a crash or the savagery from a bear market.

All the bear markets I have been invested in tend to be of 12-18 months duration whereas the bull markets tend to be from 3 - 5 year runs and some even longer than that. Markets are in the first 6 months of a bull run and investors (especially those accross the pond) tend to get carried away in an election year. Having become a little frothy, I am not surprised to see the froth scraped off. What I am a little surprised about is that it seems to be taking an age for the tiddlers (such as those that GROW invests in) to get off the ground and either out pace the behmoths or at least show themselves to be nimble in finding new opportunities to exploit.

It is very odd how retail investors (and I am of course one) are usually worried when share price languish for months at prices that seem illogical. After all, it is not as if every one of the holdings will go bust at the same time or has equal qualities in perfect market conditions.

Overall, the “price” of 100p value of shares in GROW can be purchased for 50p at the moment and yet turnover in shares remain muted and there is no appetite for the retail investor to accumulate.

I think it comes down, in part, to psychology. I discipline myself to try and buy either on the same day each month or force myself to buy on a “heavy” down day (FTSE falls 2% or more). The version of me that feels most comfortable is in a rising market where a trust is trading at a premium to its assets and I “know” I have done the “right thing”.

Investing is a long game and the longer it goes on, the more players are involved. Popularity might be as simple as counting the flies on a turd. The juiciest ones are the freshest and even better if the source is highly prized. Unquoted companies are out of favour, the appetite to float is missing and interest rates a couple of notches too much for risk to be lowered.

A May bank rate cut seems to be diminishing, though June is looking more promising. I think that rate changes might be the catalyst for a change in sentiment

No. While I have never sold short, it does provide liquidity in markets and thus is important for all investors.

Mulder - quite the most ridiculous argument and nothing to do with the merits of owning share in this company. If you want to live in a cotton wool world, please do so. I am actually rather grateful for the defence afforded to me when commuting to school in Aden with armed guards on the bus in the 1960's. Yes, came under fire once in 2 years but a girl was killed when a grenade was thrown into the cinema during a screening of Bambi - only saw the first 10 minutes so no idea what happened after that.

You carry on in a fantasy world where everyone is nice and kind and gentle, makes finding shares a little tricky to find as more likely than not some child is exploited, farmland ravaged, big holes dug in the ground or animals are exposed to chemicals

Whether you like it or not, the primary duty of a Government is to ensure the protection of its citizens, lands and borders. Defence.

Frankly it doesn't matter to me what a company does provided that it is a good investment. You are probably going to be on a hiding to nothing with your comment. If you can explain why BAE is a poor investment I would be delighted to learn and might discover information that I may have missed in my research on the investment case to own shares in this company.

Thank you EyesOfBlue, a very useful breakdown.

In the meanwhile, I have added another chunk today. Time will determine the folly or wisdom of this decision.

The worry for me is not the prospect of de-listing but why investors are not really interested in tomorrows winners. In a sense, chucking money into the winners today is easy peasy but will only last as long as the merry-go-round has momentum. At some point the next swing or slide or springy toy will have focus.

An investment in GROW is, right now, considered as something of a poor decision, the dog in the market complete with fleas and quite possibly rabies. The world is consumed with the prospect of AI and provided that AI or Machine Learning or some other vague and perhaps ambiguous term is used, then investors HAVE to include it in their holdings.

And so, those listings attract buyers - a bit like flies to a fresh turd - chuck in some delicious fruit and the investors go wild - the reality is that the resulting company is still a turd.

Right now, it seems that the price of the assets in which GROW has interest assumes that most will go bust. Yeah, they might, but not all at the same time and certainly there might even be some that are disposed and profits banked or losses contained.

Perhaps an outcome for investors is putting a "for sale notice" to attract a big fish such as III to mitigate risk or expand breadth of focus?