Member Info for Alas_Smith

Not sure your information is correct. I refer you to this article https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-defence-spending-rise-by-more-than-1-billion-pounds-telegraph-2022-12-24/#:~:text=Finance%20minister%20Jeremy%20Hunt%20is%20expected%20to%20announce,a%20real-terms%20cut%20as%20inflation%20remains%20above%2010%25.

From time to time valuations are haywire and, as the values are in businesses that are not publically quoted, can only really be guessed at until the figures are publically disclosed. We know that during the period of 2020 that small businesses were hit particularly hard and that 2021 had the green shoots for recovery. I had hoped (in common with many) that recovery would last and that the recessionary effect of world wide lockdowns would be over. Sadly Mr Putin decided to invade Ukraine in 2022 and that was sufficient to tip the balance to have rapidly rising prices, inflation, a faltering economy and a cost of living crisis. This caused markets to reduce valuations around the world (my portfolio was down over 20% or nearly 7 figures) but a brief recovery started in April 2023 to fizzle out in July.

Large caps started the long hoped for recovery in October 2023 and have continued momentum. This has not yet really filtered to the small companies and certainly not to the tiddlers that are unquoted. My hunch is that we have a few more months at depressed prices, either to sweat things out, abandon this or accumulate in anticipation of things to come.

For myself, I like to average up and see no compelling reason to add more with the uncertainty that I perceive to be evidenced. This is a trust where I am content to trust the managers to do a good job, I can certainly afford to write my capital off, but not to compound my losses when I can bung more money into those that are doing well.

I've sold the remainder of my holding today. Good luck to all.

Sadly, history is not on your side, driftking27. Every chart from the 3 month through to the 5 year shows the share price relentlessly rising. Momentum will continue and any sideways movement is likely to be of very short duration.

I am not for a moment endorsing chart analysis simply referencing visual clue

At the risk of seeming disparaging, I am wondering if you actually understand whether this is a good investment or not. Look back 150 years to note the seismic advances and which sectors benefitted. Power from steam, then oil , electricity, nuclear - the future is likely to be fission. Telephone developed from primitive device to wireless to television, computers, connectivity of people and analysis of vast reserves of data. Transportation from ships to railway, cars, aeroplanes and now space travel with many successful returns from lunar and martian landings.

Medicine developed surgery to replace hearts, lungs etc, drugs for anaesthesia and cures for increasing numbers of cancers. The mapping of DNA together with electronic data has provided accellerated vaccines for new disease in the fraction of the time that past vaccines have been done. Computing will allow bespoke medicines to be made, new medicines developed and the human race will be better in consequence.

That is what you are investing in. Investing is not a race that will be over in a few hours or days. it is one that will be enjoyed over years. There will be days, sometimes weeks or even months when your investments will decline in value. It happens to all of us. Markets have always risen and they will continue to rise in the future. The Stone age ended millenia ago, but we are still building and repairing stone houses with stone.

None of us know for certain what the future holds for any of us, but we all of us should have a pretty good idea that the next 20 years will be different from today probably by a greater amount than it was 20 years ago. If you do not feel comfortable about buying share in a company, consider a pooled investment.

Sell the news and buy the rumour.

News always allows investors to adjust portfolio to provide greater or less exposure to an individual holding/sector. I'm content that the exposure I've got to BA. is consistent with my goals and needs no adjustment. I'd like to have seen a better final dividend, but the results were largely expected based on the activity in Ukraine as well as those in the Middle East.

With what seems to be a writedown to nil, a buyer for Graphcore could completely transform the perception of Molten Ventures to the investing public.

Also heartened with the snippet released today, not directly featuring GROW but looking behind where the money actually is. 1:8 is 12.5% and surely a trickle is destined for shares in GROW? https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/aic-reveals-trusts-take-1-in-8-from-hargreaves-and-interactive/a2436511

I've been adding a few each month as a regular investment in my SIPP.

My buy went through today and is showing as "unknown"

Decent purchase today by manager.

Early stage merger talks with Mondi

Another manager has chucked £50K into the hat.

Sangijuelas, I do accept that there are many Investment Trusts (IT) that hold listed equities, however, III, PEY and AUGM, which are among the IT which I hold are principally comprised unlisted companies though at different stage of life. If we accept that investing in seed and fledgling companies need very different resource from those which are at the stage to either be spun off as a quoted company or divest to the needs appropriate to the development of that business.

Some businesses require cash, others need introductions to build sales and some need skilled people for compliance.

As far as I am concerned, my cash investment in GROW would, if the IT were wound up tomorrow probably be completely worthless if bean counters from an insolvency outfit were engaged. On the other hand, GROW has a stake in plenty of companies and perhaps a few will be a runaway success in time. It is a risk that I am prepared to take. As a general rule, I tend to comment publicly where I am worried or find the quality of discussion does not merit engagement. (AFC, EZJ, BEG for instance).

There is still 100% for the share price to fall. My hunch is that the NAV is overstated as far as the broad investing community is concerned. That the managers have dipped into their pockets to buy shares, is incidental.

It is always disheartening when the value of an investment falls, more so when there is a chasm between the value of the underlying assets and the market capital of the holding company. It is not unusual for a small discount or premium to apply from time to time from MOST investment trusts, and, for the most part such variation tends to be in the region of 5% premium and 12%-15% discount.

Anything outside these figures generally merits investigation. More often than not, the gap closes to be in the range noted above. If the underlying valuation is wrong, it will distort the numbers. If the managers have a poor track record, then that will put pressure on the discount. Investment trust managers can (and often do) buy shares in the market and hold them in treasury to take advantage of unusual gaps and sell them at a later date when the price benefits the company.

My hunch is that there is insufficient cash to allow the trust to buy shares in the market and take advantage of the discount and that there is an institutional holder that is dumping their holding. I'm not convinced that the valuation is correct. The managers might have have stretched their rope a little too much and be close to breaking point. If the valuations are broadly correct and an institutional holder is really upset, it is possible that the Trust could be wound up to put an end to the miserable share price performance. Panic does not help in a decision making process but speculation can be beneficial.

Of course, this is not a holding for widows and orphans. Just the musings of an old duffer, so take with a scoop of salt.

Wish I knew. I’ve an idea that III which has been in wifes ISA for 20 years could be a 30 bagger. But over the last 50 years I can honestly state that I have bought just one share at the absolute bottom and lost count of the companies that promised much and returned little.

I have high hopes that AFC energy will do well, but until the company generates sales it remains speculative. Probably have 30 years of life remaining and 35 for wife. Portfolio remains structured for capital growth and risk at HIGH.

High interest rates are here for another 6 weeks. The reality is that they are not that high when compared with the long term, simply high for recent memory.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/credit-card-balances-jump-to-new-1point13-trillion-record-at-end-of-2023.html

This link shows that credit card balances are rising (29% rings a bell for some reason, though I have not used a credit card for a decade or more) and https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/credit-card-delinquencies-surged-in-2023-indicating-financial-stress-new-york-fed-says.html that there are defaults.

The UK tends to lag the US by a few weeks. Gold is hovering a little off its highs but is stable. https://goldprice.org/

This SHOULD translate to pride a boost to the SP but at worst simply limit the downside. Very rarely, I have marked this as a weak buy - not investment advice, simply an old duffer with an opinion and some basic supporting narrative.

Oh, and as far as I am concerned, "weak buy" is not as strong as "buy" and a long way behind "strong buy". Almost 100% of my posts have "no opinion" as my default. And now, I have an appointment with a fresh glass of claret as the tide appears to have gone out.

FWIW, I have sold a further tranche of my NVDA holding - think it is a little frothy at the moment. It was my first 100 bagger

Spinal_Tap, the dividend payment will be reflected by a corresponding drop in the share price. If this is a candidate for a bid, it is likely that a substantial premium needs to be offered to tempt shareholders. The positive side is that the company is profitable, throws off lots of cash has gold trading at record highs and has holiday season to kick off in an Olympic year. Airlines are noting bookings are rising.

Expansion is happenning organically for RFX and there has been some press comment that de-banking of pawnbrokers has taken place. This does allow opportunity to grow through acquisition. With the exception of Albermarle & Bond and H&T, not sure that there is any more competition that has capacity to put a bid forward. Management buyout, I suppose but would need to have quite deep pockets.

Have added a few more today. Seems a great entry point to me, though disappointing that the shares remain in the doldrums.

I've taken advantage of the facility to dispose of holding at nil cost to nurse a small loss.