Member Info for Alan-by-the-sea

“The interests of you, our esteemed shareholders, are paramount to us and we remain focused on growing profitability to ensure adequate returns accrue to you.” Yes, it could be Kodal Minerals such is its way with words but it was actually elsewhere in Africa - a non-miner listed in Lagos & Johannesberg. For "shareholders" substitute consultancy fees for part-timers?

The minor part of the RNS detailed with a claim against SVS Securities, well in spite of the fact that supposedly nothing here is read by those interested in Australia I repeat my advice here weeks ago, and it's gratis from 40 years in business, unlike paroles of our learned friends. Absolutely! Fill in the Special Administrators' form that takes two hours c/o Company Secretary of which I remain one elsewhere, provide the evidence , take the tax loss and take a few pence in the Pound in 2020 if very lucky, you rank alongside contractors, agencies and HMRC and after FSCS. Anything beyond is a waste of legal fees.

I am sanguine thanks to diversification, not everyone is so lucky and some may be absolutely despondent, own strategy on the clifftop here perhaps later. The current scenario is only liveable-with so long as I don't reflect on the months of hard salaried graft to secure the - hopefully only temporarily - vanished capital, effectively paid to expensive staff living in a different continent to both main workplace and headquarters. My own holding is only in place after skewed professional advice purely for substantial commissions.

The detail at SVS is fascinating, I may write more on this tomorrow when nerves are calmed after taking the lithium:-) I do not have any intended KOD sale at present, the big Lithium picture is too bright and there remains significant resource potential (subject to forthcoming clarification) so long as we get the chance to share it.

What is noticeable is that names today - hopefully myself included - are not the known long-term hardcore überbear derampers (aka bashers) possibly with (or possibly without) split identities & no obvious holdings but those who dispassionately analyse the future risks and rewards, as I will indeed to do. That's enough for now, hope it's of interest.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFdoaiNW4AAR3FC.jpg published earlier but still beautiful, the buyer must be thrilled, we cater for the mid- and top-end of the market.

No Georgexit worries and at this afternoon's prices very willing to pay a florin higher for another bite of the cherry:
25-Oct-19 16:14:58 1,275.9893 215 Buy* 1,274.00 1,276.00 2,743 O
25-Oct-19 16:14:32 1,275.9893 261 Buy* 1,274.00 1,276.00 3,330 O
Mine is the lower one, as the top one isn't from a computer someone else must've been very fast watching a live screen for late trade direction and done a copycat, as there was then a gap for almost 7 minutes :-)

I look forward to my 72.1623p approx or perhaps more next June, somehow I don't think Lloyds will offer that 5.66% any time soon in my deposit account.

Still has all the plus points of months of postings even after another retrace, this must be the only share on LSE where this happens and there are no derampers telling us how obvious the stormclouds are and clever they are :-) All of my other holdings I know 90% of the factors causing the charts - this one 9%. All I can say is keep faith, the fundamentals IMO remain excellent as hidden gems where only a few are aware, and average down if you can. I have! This one is my buy coming through soon, I was three minutes too late for £12.64:
25 Oct 2019 14:27 1,266.02 229 £2,899.19

Beef, very considered response and glad you like what you see. I increased my holding recently with a small quantity @ 118.9853p and a medium quantity @ 134p both documented here, so can hardly be called a deramper. However all companies good and bad have pluses and minuses (some are just too expensive, others too risky!). Some transactions (eg A J Bell and possibly H L) usually go via the NEX exchange, by the way.

The fact that I'm confident enough to write about the bear aspects perhaps demonstrates in a contrary way my confidence in the company, nothing new that you can't find amongst dozens of postings. It may also give an insight into the recent retrace beyond the usual AIM impatience highlighted in the past few days, or people wanting to crystallise a good capital gain rather than wait for excellent potential.

A former director in the UK, Adam Waugh who is 56 years of age holds (or formerly held) 46,466 shares (1.42%) and noone disagreed with me when I suggested that he may - or may not - wish to sell out @ £1.60 to fund retirement or a new project, his previous one in computer management ceased earlier, in February 2017. This is the minimal level he would be looking for to achieve a happy ending to his unhappy term in office, indeed cynicism from that time of former management may be the psychological barrier that newer investors like me from the spring are happy not to bear.

The other factor - and one that many AIM companies would love to have - is that barring any unforeseen circumstances - we will almost certainly have £1.874m of new funding arriving next May (with right to do so earlier) - source RNS last May. 1.874m new shares will be generated then by exercise of unlisted warrants @ £1.00 last held I believe by SVS Securities (in administration). This has possibly generated the buyback talk, if the cash isn't needed onsite for expansion.

The SVS Securities story is worthy of a whole posting in itself, but they were a former joint broker who promoted placing stock to their clients, indeed satisfactorily for them in May even after substantial spread, if not before. All SVS clients' custody holdings via CREST are currently frozen by the administration and a "fast-track" (only by lawyers' standards...) is in place for many with hopefully release next month, clients have already been given confirmation of their holdings. For further information search for Daily Mail SVS Securities, SVS Leonard Curtis administrators, or my own posting on 8 August. Many of the SVS investors with this telephone broker contact are quite experienced, some are members here, and may well wish to retain their holdings though, or buy on any dips with their accumulated untouched dividend cash.

Best news left enigmatically till the end, quite a few of us are looking for some likely cheer not today at all but by tomorrow afternoon or on Monday, Beef you'll have to scroll down quite a few postings to work that one out if not spotted already

Sorry next dividend should of course read 50 US Cents (paid in GBP for us).

Super combination Caitlin, enjoy it to compensate for the ups and downs of shareholding in general. Rise, 10 US Cents (paid in GBP) xd on 22 November, paid on 13 December and perks as well. Shareholder benefits were a lot more visible in the days of share certificates and paper notifications, Aviva still has them also.

The rise started on Wall Street where the NYSE share CCL reached $44 exactly, up 3.41% but that included our own CCL.L rise yesterday of course. The broker consensus there has hardly varied in a month there - "buy 6, hold 12, sell 1" with 1 each overweight & underweight also (Markewatch.com). European political developments may look better stateside, a degree of recesssion is priced in below £31 as mentioned in the conference call and anything that improves that will feed through to bottom line, and Europe certainly needs a boost.

The actual trigger may be anything, large institution agreeing with my point of view a week ago, short seller reducing, positive investor coverage, some city, political, regulatory or sales & marketing aspect that we're not even aware of. I'm enjoying it as well while I can:-)

Still only fun Kodal Minerals speculation, but BiB did ask! She had calls in Casbalanca, Morocco and Gresik, Indonesia (via the Suez Canal) earlier but is now in the open seas out of AIS receiver range heading @ 10.8 knots for the port of Shanghai. You read it here first :-)

I suspect your ITV forecasts here won't be too far out, at least I hope not, a little also depends on J P Morgan as leader of the opinion formers, and any update to that link that I quoted earlier. RRR, absolutely correct to follow through as you did, it's not like an AIM share where any individual can influence very much and hit a fellow member, costs are a nuisance of course. Shares are to improve the quality of family life, not give sleepless nights, I do keep most details quiet from my sister though!

Weekends are too important worldwide to get any meaningful exchange rate live until Asia reopens, however the chart figures I found courtesy of poundf.co.uk of existing expectations are most interesting hence quoted at the end.

I confess I did my own version of your RRR strategy, with variable success, I attempted something around 50% mainly UK and 50% mainly international earners. I sold all my TW. satisfactorily in the summer during one of the early spikes, as much because of Right-to-Buy ending, skill shortages and dropoff for cyclical reasons as Brexit, I miss the dividend of course and am quite glad for punters that it's 4% higher as at yesterday. I reinvested partly in large international PLCs, but the severity of US-China spat caught me (and analysts) out there, never mind I work from year to year not month to month and have a reasonable record over quite a time with my increased holding of choice, though cashing in to put into ITV is a step too far at present. I would not sell any in this range though, any "currency plus share price" weakness would probably just attract predator(s) knowing limited time to bid.

Bit better so far on this week's action, NXT cleared entirely at 3.6% over Lord Wolfson's own sale rate and 1.5% over Friday close, all reinvested in clobbered international CCL and have half the stamp duty back so far and a good record of avoiding the chart hits there, hopefully close to the point of maximum pessimism. Frightening that if I'd gone shopping the decision would have been far less easy.... Anyway those forecasts from yesterday to finish, enjoy your Sunday if you can:

GBP USD Forecast By Day
Date (2019) Weekday Min Max Rate
21.10 Monday 1.289 1.329 1.309
22.10 Tuesday 1.296 1.336 1.316
23.10 Wednesday 1.302 1.342 1.322
24.10 Thursday 1.317 1.357 1.337
25.10 Friday 1.316 1.356 1.336
28.10 Monday 1.338 1.378 1.358
29.10 Tuesday 1.362 1.404 1.383
30.10 Wednesday 1.361 1.403 1.382
31.10 Thursday 1.353 1.395 1.374
01.11 Friday 1.349 1.391 1.370
04.11 Monday 1.348 1.390 1.369
05.11 Tuesday 1.352 1.394 1.373
06.11 Wednesday 1.353 1.395 1.374
07.11 Thursday 1.352 1.394 1.373
08.11 Friday 1.352 1.394 1.373
11.11 Monday 1.348 1.390 1.369
12.11 Tuesday 1.345 1.385 1.365
13.11 Wednesday 1.330 1.370 1.350
14.11 Thursday 1.336 1.376 1.356
15.11 Friday 1.332 1.372 1.352
18.11 Monday 1.326 1.366 1.346
19

Hello Kev, thanks for your thoughtful question. Same as most very dedicated private investors I guess, I have 89 good companies on my watchlist - even ignoring those I've neglected to prune about the limit of what I can cope with in 15-30 hours per week of study per week. Only 13 are owned, and I changed one of another yesterday - 3% of portfolio on a £9.95 deal to buy CCL for which is too controversial to put on a "sensible" list (where I forgot NG. earlier by the way....not held). Investment is a frustration in some ways, either few funds and lots of bargains (as I think today will seem looking back in 2021 particularly after 15 months of dividends....) or winners galore in better times and expensive prices on display! Putting in fixed amounts every month certainly has something to recommend it. Very little from salary any more and supposedly gold-plated pension doesn't go far :-)

When I have the £5 per deal broker up to speed with some transfers completed, BMN may well be an obvious choice as dividends roll in needing reinvestment, AIM is still only at 8% or so even after rises and falls. If you wish read back to my early August postings you'll see some random special circumstances here and to some others on the bulletin board, which should unwind for the better during November. Sadly doesn't involve £15k arriving though!

Hello TheOne, can I be permitted to supply you with the boring sensible answer as retired analyst, as people here are (correctly) a little biased one way or the other and I'm a watcher with no holding yet! You don't say what the rest of your portfolio may be, but keep AIM to 10% for excitement (exhilaration or despair...) and use the other 90% for things like RDSB, BP., GLEN, ITV, GSK, AV., PRU, MNDI, ULVR, BGEO, TCAP, perhaps an engineer and other banks and sectors or something large abroad if you like them and CEY while off its highs for a future crisis. (I only own about half of those currently by the way) Perhaps 50% overseas earners and 50% UK? Sorry I don't know much about pure growth stocks in the main indexes, also usually bit me in hindsight.

There is at least one online broker backed by a major plc who will deal for you @ £5 and this keeps £1500-£3000 deals economic, though it does have a one-off application fee. You don't have to use the high-profile platform providers @ £9.95+ as many including myself still often do for ease and legacy reasons.

This is from experience of course - I broke my own diversity rule and filled my own boots ten days too early in 2017, FTSE-250 company not AIM and boy it took a lot of very hard work and new study to get back :-)

Thanks Uncle, I genuinely welcome contrary facts as reminder. You sound as if you've been burned by that horrible chart I mentioned, just as much luck as judgement I haven't, past dividends and capital gains on the clifftop and CCL as 3% of portfolio now isn't excessive. It's a cyclical industry hammered by political and consumer economic factors (including US own goals) and fuel prices have hit profits in the past, that doesn't mean that it doesn't become good value at a certain point which I believe may be around now, indeed I was looking at it at around £31.50+ but had no spare funds.

It's the major player worldwide, hence the big picture is that my generation is rightly increasingly willing to patronise Carnival-owned companies rather than passing money to kids, getting stranded c/o Thomas Cook, or sitting at home writing this after overnight storm, we're living longer worldwide in better health. If GBP picks up more Brits will do so, if it falls our rest-of-world income here is higher in Sterling terms. I actually like buybacks, it directs more cash back to shareholders and can represent an efficient use of capital, the fact that say £35 was paid for some buybacks is hindsight, as you don't know the share price now without large purchases and it probably keeps the single public shorter sensible at 0.92%.

The recent downside as at September is well covered in:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/27/carnivals-slowdown-shows-no-signs-of-letting-up.aspx
But management at least remained bullish in October:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/03/carnival-to-shareholders-our-ships-can-weather-rec.aspx

That what an economic cycle is, my crystal ball is as cloudy as yours, I don't know the future or if it has a few months to run, but I do know that there's little money to be made at the top of cycle when earnings are high and everyone is full of self-confidence. I'm happy to be paid $2 a year - possibly more in the future - to wait. My Aviva shares were just the same when below £4 for ages, I got in too early but was paid to wait, though I exited another cyclical very well and much earlier than expected (11 months) to pay for my purchase here.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/d-avoid-sirius-minerals-sxx-071814735.html
The bottom three paragraphs which cover Aviva nicely sum up my own positive views on Aviva and the new Chief Executive, I returned to the stock in 2018 and 2019. Apologies if any of the SXX analysis hurts, never owned the stock.

Wise owl, exactly the conundrum I posed three postings down, in several years I've not seen any really conclusive explanation either but happy to hold and collect the dividends, with all the positives I've bored readers here with.

Obviously BGEO moves based on actual profitability and prospects, not as much as it should of course but I'm biased! It seems to move mainly with the popularity and interest rates of European and UK banking sectors, but also the GBP and GEL (Georgian Lari) exchange rates to USD and between each other. Lesser factors are generic "emerging market" experiences, and ups and downs of Russia as neighbour and trade coverage. Shares Magazine and several Motley Fool analysts are usually positive, indeed they should be, part of their role IMO its to guide their readers away from obvious banking paths into lesser-known areas with (IMO) more stability and good prospects (and good price spread!), without being slanted by own commission aspects.

If anyone pinpoints any more than this or works on the question with data and produces a chart, please let us know results!

Returned to Carnival with 400 at a fraction under £30.52 for SIPP, I know the downsides causing that awful chart but have no unhappy memories to taint judgement and I think with the positives medium-term and value here it's oversold now.

Personally for portfolio I also need a practical easy hedge against political events going wrong in the next few weeks, even though surprisingly J P Morgan a few days ago suggested this is only a minority view now. My usual favourites for international earnings of GSK, ULVR and RDSB are looking either pricey in historic terms or showing weaknesses, at this level CCL looks robust in most scenarios even £1 = $1.35+ in the next few months IMO, with some decent upside surprises or rerating possible as pessimism lifts a bit. The excellent but little-known BGEO where I have a big holding moves with UK banking sector popularity as much as exchange rate, so isn't quite the hedge I need to balance my significant GBP earners.

Finally, not used yet but don't forget the shareholder benefits with 100+ shares, CCL.L holders are included:
https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/10/16/itvs-share-price-has-just-risen-nearly-25-heres-what-id-do-now/
(Mr Sheldon is a shareholder)

One reminder here of another fact that we perhaps tend now to take for granted as we scrutinise new factors "The group’s half-year report was the first catalyst for a rebound. Here, results were better than expected. Helped by the tremendous success of Love Island, advertising revenue only fell by 5% during the first half of the year, compared to forecasts for a 6% fall. The company also reported online revenue growth of 18% and held its dividend steady."

The wider factual analysis is excellent and fully sums up my own views again. My own holding averages @ about £1.52 excluding dividends, as for various reasons I was only able to get about 20% within what is coming to look like the "bargain" area, hence I'm still willing to regard the current 134.55p as undervalued and append higher own opinion and wait and perhaps top up sometime, particularly if some politician knocks it back again for a short time during fund availability.

1.48p dividend will be paid on 22 November, Lookers.

Thanks for recent mature discussions and information from all viewpoints, and indeed sensible market reaction, bearing in mind low six days ago of 49.6p and high that day of 51.2p.

I have no formal connection with the process except as significant shareholder, today's Q3 figures remain record results. Could I ask shareholders - and perish the thought even anyone with other agenda! - not to speculate or offer opinions on the exact detail, when the Company and has offered to do so, and to which the vast majority here would definitely be more interested, particularly if any points are clarified:

Shareholders are invited to submit questions via email in advance of the call (Friday 18 October 2019 at 14:00 BST), to which management will aim to respond. Questions should be sent to St Brides Partners at shareholderenquiries@stbridespartners.co.uk, on behalf of the Company.

To participate in the conference call, please dial 0808 109 0701, or +44 (0) 20 3003 2701 if you are calling from outside of the UK and enter the participant pin 1569344# when prompted to do so. All lines will be muted except for BlueRock's management team. To comply with regulations, no new information regarding the Company will be provided during the call.

Thanks, fully agreed f15 but those aspects are priced in - and perhaps more - from late June onwards even though such enquiries often drag. Mr Bramall would not have expended much of his personal fortune if not. My contacts within the industry regard Lookers as one of the better players on such matters anyway, and the fact that directors volunteered the information so to speak and made honest cost provisions so quickly could also get us first to the other side. The exact wording is:

"As disclosed in the 2018 Annual Report and Accounts, during last year the Board became aware of certain matters requiring review in some areas of the business subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA"). In December 2018, the Board commissioned an independent review of the Group's internal control, risk assurance systems and internal audit. This review, which we shared with the FCA."

Unlikely meeting of minds between my own thoughts on the ITV board today (for hedges read shorts to some extent...) and J P Morgan:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/barnier-says-deal-difficult-still-possible-brexit-update
(section timed at 11:12 BST)

"JPMorgan Chase & Co. credit strategists are so confident that the U.K. will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal this month that they recommend closing Brexit hedges on no-deal exposed borrowers such as Lloyds Banking Group Plc and ITV Plc."