Member Info for Alan-by-the-sea

Rocket, not £1 in short term, though it has been there before its own goals and rectifications, I remember selling at £1.29 when things were going well and buying back at 98p, property backed and with OK dividends of course. The short-term resistance level is 57p or so, still quite please. There is serious money going back into this company today.

Thank you for the clarification, I stand corrected by a few weeks. Such things have a habit of limiting really good upside on AIM particularly when forgotten, so it'll be nice to have them out the way - or a doubling to £1.08 to buy from here of course!

For newer holders, we have been there during the operation of the mine of course, my second larger purchase was somewhere around there, happy to hold well beyond there. Checking my spreadsheet, I see I have BRD in share account, ISA and SIPP and none have ever been sold - whether that's a good sign or the kiss of death I leave to the fundamentals :-)

I'm not exactly unbiased because I hold quite a chunk (over 2m) and not far two-thirds of my AIM holdings by value are here and have been for some time. Tthe infamous KOD and little-known gem BRD are the other two.

It may not last for long, but I can't help noticing this morning that due to other holders' impatience and the normal movements of the silver price (rather than any bad news!) you can buy price-matched to the last institutional fundraising at 1.10p, or in small quantities probably a fraction less.

I'm sure that a few of you at the time - like me - felt grieved at being locked out of the fund-raising at 1.10p but now (for hopefully only a short time) you have a chance to rectify that at what it hopefully a resistance level as the big boys and girls protect their own investment in UFO and mop up small weaker holdings. Buying on the next good RNS is actually more risky as with such high visibility the professionals will have changed their positions within 30 seconds.

4065 BRD - GBP0.05 at a price of 54p Net Payable £2,200.10 09:33 approx
The broker may have put it through the alternative BRD.GB.PL (Auris Exchange listing) I won't know till it appears after delay

Nice average down for me after I did well on Glencore this morning and sold a few, the fundamentals here in my opinion are exactly as many here (including non-rampers) have written and the future looks better than when I paid the equivalent of 60p for my first shares. From memory as I wrote about it in 2019 another lot of warrants drops out on 1 May unless there is a very substantial rise in the next 11 weeks.

Back again after this morning's +8% strength with a large "attack" at just after 11:40. This is or very similar tactic to a short-seller attempting to drive down by disheartening many and enabling the short-seller to buy back cheaper. Institutions with routine reductions or increases don't work like that, they use computer algos to feed stock in or out in small quantities over several days.

Fortunately all is not always so predictable as my first sentence, we have a hero in place willing and able to take up the cheap stock faster instead! Interesting times again, I'm holding my £five-figure value of stock, all cash spent!
11-Feb-21 12:02:06 36.00 55,555 Buy* 34.25 36.65 20.00k O

These type of percentage changes are either institutional holders changing view (self-defeating having held through the bad times through to new changed dawn) or short sellers attempting quick money by frightening holders like me and some of those reading this. They were all savvy enough before to buy back by the 21p mark, sometimes if you read my postings of past years they would only be short for a week or under. Millennium International Management LP was the worst culprit as Odey Asset Management was a lot more savvy and supportive by buying back heavily up to Dec 2019.

Bear in mind that disclosure level at the FCA is 0.5% so substantial downs and ups can be manipulated below that percentage. shorttracker.co.uk has easier online detail than the regulator, in almost the same timescale.

Haven't been close to a rights issue for some time, otherwise knowing how the rights were released slightly delayed via A J Bell, Hargreaves Lansdowne & other platforms I could probably have made some money working out the scenario over different days of artificially depressed prices. Some private investors including myself have already maximised their ISA and SIPP holdings by now, late in the tax year, so switching from cash held isn't always an option.

Anyway didn't attempt to guess anything, all existing TCAP shares are within ISA (and still well in profit long-term including dividends and rights) so to supplement some accumulated dividend cash I sold some of another holding that has had good post-Covid gains and took up slightly over £5k of rights in TCAP in full, for the broker to administer later in February.

Nice to be back after a long gap putting my money where my typing finger has been, with some cash that came available:
(circa 16:21 today)
Bought 3641 ITV - ITV ORD GBP0.10 at a price of 97.599p
Net Payable £ 3,576.35

Bought 1663 TP ICAP PLC ORD GBP0.25 at a price of 226.116p
Net Payable £ 3,784.11

Cash arrival within ISA, I consider the sell-off here overdone therefore the purchase as good value for the future, we shall see no doubt.

Don't think that RNS are possible while suspended, so pleased to provide similar links here.
https://www.lookersplc.com/media/10410/lookers-annual-report-2019.pdf
https://www.lookersplc.com/media/10403/251120-rns-2019-audited-financial-statements.pdf

Interim results for 2020 are due later this month

Alan

Bought 1731 @ 1,149.2484p for full year ISA, see recent reasons given by other people and my postings 2019 to early 2020.

As holder of the stock, without full investigation I read the announcement as interim dividend of 5.6p per share to be paid on 6 November 2020 (not really any reason to change that at this stage). But the final dividend (for year ending 31 Dec 2020) would earlier might have been expected to have been 11.25p in May 2021 (though not yet announced) will be not more than another 5.6p. The wording is poor and may be clarified later or worked out by one of the more astute financial journalists willing to probe further.

Rebasing up or down from next financial year - payments in Nov 2021 and May 2022 is clear of course.

On the wider point it does make sense to make acquisitions at the present moment of time with the world in turmoil for PLCs who can at the right price, even though the share price hit is annoying for many reading this. Definitely look at TCAP for a top-up now.

Thanks rwd, some recommended good unemotional rough analysis there, which I might of got to given time and more energy. Any member got hold of any full-time analysts' fine detail on the point please? Put another way, in the run up to January net figure would have probably come out at 70p plus recovery prospects and the share traded typically at 51p-57p with a max of 65.2p. With a 10p Covid hit (many £ millions when multiplied by shares in issue) this should probably translate now to 60p net per share assets as you say (plus recovery prospects) and so apply the same £m discount as uncertainty discount and - short selling skewing excepted - trading range soon of 41p-47p with a max of 55p wouldn't be unreasonable.

Put a third way, if a predator made a lowball offer of 50p per share saying "128% premium for you!!" the same institutions who are playing with our shares would be outing non-rough calculations of the same thing and a much brighter future saying ridiculous, we want 80p. And probably leaking rumours of a foreign buyer @ 90p to the weekend press as well.

I'd like to fine tune your commercial property comments, it's dire in general terms and I haven't invested for years. Being where my nickname implies I can see the crisis of retail with rent strikes (excluding food & a few such as NXT and ABF) every day and I thought London office construction folly even before 2020. PDG which I mentioned actually received £10.2m cash for a £9.8m book property - 15 year lease @ c7% (ref at end). However LOOK property tends to be in mixed industrial areas where demand holds up, my regional one is on an estate where till now voids have been minimal and is easily convertible into Aldi/LIDL/whatever or demolition for an internet logistics depot.

Anyway, I'm feeling short selling again today with the same price pattern as yesterday, maybe in the private sub-0.5% range, those boys (and a few girls these days no doubt) don't like revelations while they're doing it. Time and the FCA will tell!

www.lse.co.uk/rns/PDG/sale-and-leaseback-of-property-at-porsche-stockport-v6hxsv2shysqt66.html

Talk of unspecified £1.20 warrants rather puzzles me, my reckoning is:

£1.50 warrants (0.3p old money @ 500 to 1) - older and expired
£1.00 warrants (0.2p old money) current to about May 2021 (source RNS of 15 May 2019)
If anyone thinks otherwise please tell us :-)

Funds raised on full exercise would be £1.874m.

Holdings for SVS Securities clients are transferred in full by next month to an as yet undisclosed new broker (source - administrators' website) but I would imagine at this price (little if any capital gain to them) after the roller-coaster the majority there will opt to hold for the future potential of a now more-established producing operation rather than AIM-style explorer promises and fancy prospectuses.

Nice like Connie to be back, and like a few other writers I felt a little stitched up by the information flow and the possibility of excessive HQ costs, ie management running BRD for themselves instead of for all of us. But today I'll give the team praise as I've done before, nice to see us rightfully at number one on the leader board of all UK shares this morning.

As reported in the Group's year end trading update the Board expects to report net debt at 31 December 2019 of approximately £62.0m (2018: £86.9m). The Group has a £250m revolving credit facility with five banks with a term to March 2022. In addition, the Group continues to enjoy the benefit of a strong property portfolio with a net book value of c. £317m (as at 31 December 2019) (81p per share).
(RNS 23 march 2020 - sorry in posting below I put the wrong type of symbols round the extract and the LSE system cut out the text)

Positions changed on Thursday 28 May
Lookers plc Millennium International Management LP 0.52% +0.52%
(shorttracker.co.uk from FCA disclosures)
Always hovering in the background of course but their algos have decided to attack Lookers to attempt to push us long investors to panic and may be at work again today after the positive start. One of the few institutions which is overall wishing for more misery in the UK, but possibly foolish as well, look at transactions the same day compared with experienced BlackRock's buybacks:
CARNIVAL PLC BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited 0.63% -0.30%
CARNIVAL PLC Millennium International Management LP 1.51% +0.14%
Dreadful spreadsheet loss on that extra 0.14% already......

Anyway, have stuck in with LOOK all the way through events out of the blue but had no cash to increase as I have a significant percentage of my portfolio here already and a small percentage at PDG. Motor cars and vans have been given a boost by public transport setbacks, and depreciate even when standing in the drive, reduced cash will restrain some activity month by month but not for ever and it's mostly priced in along with the historic probe stuff that has a habit of moving at legal snail's pace. I like the 81p per share asset via property portfolio (source RNS 23 March 2020) - full text at end. When Pendragon with worse cash position did a sale and leaseback this month they secured more than the book value from the developer.

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Quite good progress since I last wrote below, and the market seems to be accumulating a few over the past few days prior to the results which is probably a good sign. Royston Wild has picked up on the strengths and weaknesses well in his article:
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/02/07/forget-lloyds-and-barclays-id-rather-buy-this-banks-big-dividends-for-my-isa/

20 December but RNS just released. Reassuring Lookers purchase @ 55p by the most experienced insider what is probably the quietest trading day of the year. He now owns 75,658,051 shares, 19.44% of the total voting rights.

These new [Chinese] temporary import tariffs are significantly lower than China’s “most-favoured-nation duty” tariffs – the lowest permanent levy.

For example......, .........and semiconductors will not incur any tariff at all, Reuters reports.

Hello again S-b-a, can't answer that yet, the RNS we're thinking about only has a deadline of 15:00 today so we both have a few extra minutes or hours for buy in advance if required. Perhaps Carnival is going for my suggestion of release when London and New York are both open? The CCL.L market is free-standing at present with no share buybacks on the agreed programme since 10 December.

I am a touch more optimistic as holder this time, though I hate writing that because (as with all shares even well researched FTSE100 ones) surprises can be literally that. But here goes anyway, even if I have to eat my words before the trading day's up :-)

1. Macro. Developed world economies seem to be bumping along a bottom at present, with the US having a degree of surprising resilience, EU flat-lining, UK stronger (in Sterling purchasing power) after the B-word and China still only a small part of the CCL market. Fuel headwinds (if I can use a cliché ironic in maritime context) have reversed a bit. But as Carnival said itself, all of its ships are likely to see a recession sometime in their 30-year life......
2. Psychology. Over-optimism in own predictions, including hope as a factor or poor news management and then excuses has caused nasty market reactions for at least two sets of figures. The surprises have caused these reactions, not the figures themselves. For board credibility there is thus a chance this time of aiming low and over-achieving. Who knows?
3. Market professional activity - the only firm one and the only one definitely cheering. Savvy BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd as sole public shorter reduced their short by 0.04% on 4 December to 0.88%, having increased it by 0.03% in October. Sounds tiny but isn't.