Member Info for Alan-by-the-sea

Hello Walkley and all, indeed, Lookers (LOOK) is in exactly the same position with P/E of around 3 valued at next to nothing as real estate property owned is more or less equal to market cap, and investors waiting to see optimum dividend/debt/buyback policy.

I think patience and occasional top-ups must be the best policy for private investors at both companies at present, I did my last one early in lockdown I think and that has proved a useful averaging down as I was happy to pay over 30p for former regular dividends. My PDG holding is of medium size and my LOOK one large size by private investor standards, overall this dual holding is in profit excluding dividends but it's been a hell of a ride and needed courage in far worse times to get there.

The Lookers bulletin board - and from memory the UK press - had frequent references to the Cazoo float in the USA, which by all accounts is over-hyped and over-priced relative to sales volume and income but those investors participating are happy to read about the gimmicks, how we're different, how we're unicorn etc, the start-up losses etc knowing they're possibly able to sell the shares on at a profit in a short timescale. In reality if Cazoo wants to be serious in UK car retailing rather than just being a minor nuisance to web offerings of PDG etc they can't rectify much of this without buying PDG or LOOK, or one of the other players that I know a lot less - earnings are excellent at most presently. The difference is that they have bags of cash on deposit to spend.

I haven't examined the pension commitments here recently, but at Lookers it didn't make sense to rectify too much too soon, because yield on bonds etc required for these commitments is likely to be higher in the medium future making the capital purchases for each Pound of pension income cheaper in the future than they are now.

Finally playing devil's advocate but unfortunately one has to, to understand why City and private investors diverge - PDG has gone from hard times to boom so quickly that perhaps P/E of 3.6 is just dismissed as cyclical peak? Consistency on present earnings/costs or something creditable and close must surely reward the patient - and reversion to excuses and musical chairs in the boardroom reward the doom-mongers and any private short sellers - there aren't any public ones, which is one of the best signs.

(6 October - author Ben Hobson)
https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/why-lookers-passes-this-stock-selection-checklist-243769/

In times of turmoil, it can be hard to know what lies in store for stocks. But using the same approach as some of the world's most influential strategists could help you track down those worth taking a closer look at.

Over several decades, finance academics and market professionals have reached a consensus about what really makes some stocks perform well (and others perform badly). They've pinpointed a handful of 'factors' that have become well-understood drivers of stock market profits.

Standing on the shoulders of these giants could help you track down shares with the potential to outperform - and one share that at first glance has some exposure to these drivers is Lookers (LON:LOOK)...

Choose high quality over junk
Some of the most influential stock market studies have found that Quality is an important factor that tends to show up time and time again...

Companies with a track record of profitable growth, high efficiency and solid finances, have been shown to be better bets on average than low quality, loss-making firms.

By our calculations (which use a range of financial quality metrics) Lookers has a Quality Rank of 70 (where zero is poor and 100 is excellent).

Opt for cheap over expensive
Another well-research observation is that attractively valued shares tend to outperform expensive shares on average over time. So it's important to look at Value and whether a company is being fairly priced relative to what it earns, owns and what it pays out.

By our calculations (which look at several valuation metrics) Lookers has a Value Rank of 99.

Look for a positive trend
It's easy to think that Momentum is only a measure for technical traders, but research once again shows that recent trends in both price and fundamentals can be a strong hint about the future. In the market, trends tend to persist, so it makes sense to look for stocks that are on an upward trajectory.

By our calculations (which look at both price and earnings momentum) Lookers has a Momentum Rank of 73.

Overall, there are signs here that Lookers has above-average exposure to three very important drivers of stock market profits...

What does this mean for potential investors?
Good quality shares that are well priced and rising in the market have very broad appeal. But there are no guarantees. Finding bullet-proof shares is difficult - and we've identified some areas of concern with Lookers, which you can find here. Knowing the warning signs and being aware of weakness is essential if you're going to preserve your wealth.

Alternatively, if you'd like to find more shares that enjoy strong exposure to these vital drivers of stock market profits, just come and take a look at
https://www.stockopedia.com/screens/high-quality-value-momentum-904138/?tid=1553&bid=633&sid=115557&aid=243769&cta=4&ticker=LON-LOO

Bank of Georgia Group PLC
BGEO:LSE
Price (GBX) 1,560.00 Today's Change 0.00 / 0.00% Shares traded 2.07k 1 Year change +71.81% Beta1.5606

Recommendations 15-Oct-20 07-Oct-21
Buy 4 6
Outperform 4 3
Hold 2 1
Underperform 0 0
Sell 0 0

Share price forecast
The 9 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Bank of Georgia Group PLC have a median target of 1,912.40, with a high estimate of 2,453.19 and a low estimate of 1,486.12. The median estimate represents a 22.59% increase from the last price of 1,560.00.

High 57.3% 2,453.19
Med 22.6% 1,912.40
Low -4.7% 1,486.12

Earnings history & estimates
On Aug 17, 2021, Bank of Georgia Group PLC reported 2nd quarter 2021 earnings of 4.19 per share.
The next earnings announcement is expected on Nov 12, 2021.
Average growth rate -11.25%
Bank of Georgia Group PLC reported annual 2020 earnings of 6.17 per share on Feb 25, 2021.
2021
Reported: --
Consensus: 12.35
High: 13.75
Low: 9.41
Analysts: 9
Average growth rate -9.26%
Revenue history & estimates
Bank of Georgia Group PLC had 2nd quarter 2021 revenues of 334.98m. This bettered the 319.00m estimate of the one analyst covering the company. This was 22.04% above the prior year's 2nd quarter results.
Average growth rate +9.99%
Bank of Georgia Group PLC had revenues for the full year 2020 of 1.09bn. This was 1.77% below the prior year's results.
2022
Reported: --
Consensus: 1.42 b
High: 1.57 b
Low: 1.21 b
Analysts: 8
Average growth rate +1.96%
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=BGEO:LSE

TP ICAP Group PLC
TCAP:LSE

Price (GBX)161.88Today's Change3.32 / 2.09%Shares traded104.06k1 Year change-15.76%Beta0.7339

Data delayed at least 20 minutes, as of Oct 15 2021 11:23 BST.
Recommendations 15-Oct-20 11-Oct-21
Buy 1 2
Outperform 3 3
Hold 2 1
Underperform 0 0
Sell 0 0

Share price forecast
The 7 analysts offering 12 month price targets for TP ICAP Group PLC have a median target of 260.00, with a high estimate of 356.51 and a low estimate of 228.17. The median estimate represents a 63.98% increase from the last price of 158.56.

High 124.8% 356.51
Med 64.0% 260.00
Low 43.9% 228.17

Dividends
In 2020, TP ICAP Group PLC reported a dividend of 0.07 GBP, which represents a 53.45% decrease from last year. The 6 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 0.10 GBP for the upcoming fiscal year, an increase of 43.04%.

Earnings history & estimates
TP ICAP Group PLC reported annual 2020 earnings of 32.45 per share on Mar 09, 2021.
Average growth rate -2.27%
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=TCAP:LSE
--------------------------
Unlike earlier averaging down, my last one for just over £5k into ISA in the past month was timed nicely, well we'll see. No public shorts either as a plus (shorttracker.co.uk).

Rather miserable response to a cheering Production Update but that is now par for the course for BRD, it can't exist for ever as eventually cash flow - the real test - will be good enough to repurchase shares for treasury as a buyback. Nice to have the short-termers out of the way though.
14-Oct-21 08:32:40 47.25 8,000 Buy* 43.00 48.00 3,780 O

This is the last transaction and is a man or woman after my own heart, indeed he or she got exactly the same price from the MM that I got before the Q3 Update when at long last I averaged down on my non-ISA holding. (Long-term readers will remember me from 2019 and earlier - BRD for ISA and SIPP).

My own details were:
11-Oct-21 08:41 47.25 2,320 Buy* 43.00 48.00 1096.20 O

I did the same, just below £1.50 and just above £5k worth from my ISA which has since proved the best buy of the week so far, helps to balance my premature optimism here earlier. Still no public short sellers on Shorttracker.co.uk . Bargains only arise during gloom and over-selling. But I got the cash from the last of my Glencore (normal holding, not ISA) and sentiment that one looked totally different a year ago. TCAP now about 10% of my portfolio which is strong and diversified to have one temporarily weak...actually there are three out of twelve or so but I'll keep that quiet!

Thank you for the dispassionate analysis from a bit closer to the workface, taken on board.

Consensus recommendation
Recommendations 29-Jul-21
Buy 4
Outperform 4
Hold 1
Underperform 0
Sell 0

Share price forecast
The 8 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Bank of Georgia Group PLC have a median target of 1,794.94, with a high estimate of 2,207.29 and a low estimate of 1,483.25. The median estimate represents a 21.77% increase from the last price of 1,474.00.
1.0k2.0k3.0k

? High forecast: 2 207.28549p
High 49.7% 2,207.29p
Med 21.8% 1,794.94p
Low 0.6% 1,483.25p
The next earnings announcement is expected on Aug 18, 2021.
With thanks
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=BGEO:LSE

Share price forecast
The 7 analysts offering 12 month price targets for TP ICAP Group PLC have a median target of 285.00, with a high estimate of 356.51 and a low estimate of 228.17. The median estimate represents a 45.13% increase from the last price of 196.38.
200.0300.0400.0
High 81.5% 356.51
Med 45.1% 285.00
Low 16.2% 228.17
Dividends
In 2020, TP ICAP Group PLC reported a dividend of 0.07 GBP, which represents a 53.45% decrease from last year. The 8 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 0.13 GBP for the upcoming fiscal year, an increase of 80.23%.
TP ICAP Group PLC reported annual 2020 earnings of 32.45 per share on Mar 09, 2021.
2018
Reported: 30.21p
Consensus: 29.6p
High: 34.29p
Low: 31.15p
Analysts: 7
Average growth rate -2.27%
Revenue history & estimates
TP ICAP plc had revenues for the full year 2020 of 1.79bn. This was 2.13% below the prior year's results.
2022
Reported: --
Consensus: £2.01bn
High: £2.1bn
Low: £1.91bn
Analysts: 8
Average growth rate +24.82%

With thanks
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=TCAP:LSE

03rd August 2021 16:20 196.90 1,140 (this one is mine - shows as red sell on some platforms!)

Slow but steady progress as I feed in £20k from dividends, minor non-ISA sales and other minor income for the tax year. Quite good progress from the 08:05 price to the 16:29 price considering all the negativity and vested interests trying to drive things down in the London market. Value will out in the end and if not earnings will, I don't invest for the day, week or month.

Rechecked Shorttracker.co.uk this morning and still 0% public shorts there, last one on TCAP was 17 Feb 2021, genuine negative anticipation (usually caused by excessive debt) always causes the vultures to accumulate. Amused to see burnt fingers amongst them re Morrisons and Meggitt though! Still happy to add here by the sea on a lovely sunny day and if the price is better than last time that will probably be a good thing for the portfolio in the end. Lockdown cash input provided some of my best-ever returns, even in financials.

Hi Wadz, sorry for the delayed reply, there isn't one this year but the likely future (resumed) pattern of one single payment per year will probably reflect the previous pattern which I copy over from my control sheet, hopefully with a dividend increase beyond the last one:
BGEO Dividends
Latest Final only
Ex-Div 30-May-2019
Paid 28-Jun-2019
Amount 72.1623p
NMS 1000 as at 7/19 (LSE)
52 week range
734.00 / 1,479.52
YTD return 19.51%
1 year return 39.66% (London Stock Exchange a few minutes ago)

This has ended up as one of my biggest portfolio holdings and none has been sold since my first purchases in April 2018. I hold no pure UK banks as - in spite of Georgia being little understood widely - the basics look far better here. I've had good returns on BGEO overall but purely by averaging down and putting a full year's 2020/21 ISA allowance in last November. However I never got hold of any below £10.7763 due to own cashflow in lockdown. The other drip feeds purchases I've documented here.

Lookers is far from the only firm to be in this Final Salary Pension scheme position, which is caused by global quantative easing pushing the prices of government bonds etc many times higher than was envisaged when these schemes were devised. No doubt nice for those prudent schemes who were over-funded before that lark started and were no doubt criticised for doing so.

Until writing this I did wonder why such aspects didn't occupy a number 2 priority after the business iself in resource allocation and I think I can now see why. Firstly it's mainly a problem which may partly self-correct in time as the deficit calculation is one defined by accountants and legislators, and pensioners aren't going without their pensions and the funds have enough resources to pay them, or at least the Lookers one does.

Why buy these bonds etc now when most informed sources say that yields are going to rise soon due to inflation and thus their prices will fall while their income generated will be constant?

Bought 865 TCAP - TP ICAP GROUP PLC ORD GBP0.25 at a price of 216.852p
Net Payable £ 1,880.77
For those of you with 15 minutes delay this will be through soon

Rather than moaning about little change after an unwarranted drift down, I took advantage of it. Chunks like this at different price levels over the year - and mostly paid from dividends, is the boring basis for building a portfolio as I have done, and thank my lucky stars that I can do when no longer a wage slave. My target price for year end is £2.50 and another divi will be in the pocket by then, no danger signals and the Liquidnet risk must hopefully be priced in at these levels. TCAP unlike the rest of my financials thrives on volatility and I've not seen much reduction in that so far. GSK was the other candidate for my cash addtion but activists have pushed that one way above the £12.70 I wanted to pay there, while little-known BGEO the third one has gone out of reach since my last LSE purchase and board posting, amazingly only on 5 May.

Bought 533 BGEO - BANK OF GEORGIA GR ORD GBP0.01 at a price of 1,077.63p
Net Payable £ 5,777.49

Better price than before so counts as averaging down even though I should have put it through yesterday afternoon, the last report and most analysis (including Motley Fool - thank you) are positive, currency factors balance my UK GBP portfolio Smallcap earnings, interest rate factors / central bank hints are positive for the first time in many years so the global "sell Eurpean banks" attitude may come to an end and maybe even quite suddenly and make today look like bargain territory. Finally the likely resumption of dividends will be a push albeit probably factored in now and I still like the fundamentals here more than Lloyds & friends who are in a mature market in banking terms.

Don't forget that there's also little-known CGEO as well, effectively for us an investment trust for Georgia that was split off a few years ago, I have sufficient percentage there already so concentrate on BGEO.

Liberum hiked its price target on car dealership chain Lookers to 90p from 45p toay, keeping the rating at 'buy' after a "much stronger-than-expected" first-quarter trading performance.

"This combined with the ongoing benefits of the restructuring lead to a 97% increase to our lower end of the range FY21E adjusted profit before tax forecast," the broker said.

"The new management team is performing well and we expect the consumer environment to be supportive of the ongoing recovery."

Liberum said that while FY20 results and a refinancing are still pending, it does not expect material issues with either.

Lookers said last week that it was expecting annual profit to be "materially" better than market expectations after a strong first quarter and with showrooms about to reopen.

Liberum noted that its FY21 pre-tax profit estimate was at the lower end of the range of at £17.8m.

"Clearly, much depends on how strongly consumer spending returns, but we remain positive, given the experience coming out of the last lockdown," the broker said. ((Sharecast News)

Edben, not found in the online Times (UK) archive yet, only the two routine news stories from March, then the last encouraging story from 30 January. It has come true and better though, shows how far we've come:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lookers-on-road-to-recovery-after-seven-month-stock-market-suspension-lgss6753p

As I highlighted here at 46.55p midprice on 9 March, we do best amongst low-volume share price noise when the professionals and directors take a buying interest. It used to often occur when short coverers repurchased, but pleased to report that there are no public open positions at present! (source shorttracker.co.uk).

One of our supporters has given us a 12-month high of 55p for a trade, and been proud of it with immediate not delayed display:

01-Apr-21 09:38:57 55.00 60,000 Buy* 53.00 55.00 33.00k A
01-Apr-21 09:38:57 54.90 2,046 Buy* 53.00 54.90 1,123 A
01-Apr-21 09:38:57 54.40 4,826 Buy* 53.00 54.40 2,625 A

Apologies if the previous subject from me today appears twice, the first posting is now showing on one of my screens and not the main one, I thought cut by system as too long.

Perhaps I think it's fair to say that Cazoo buying and selling cars is a incidental, the larger goal is massive global money in search of a purpose that had to sound unique (as Ocado probably is!) via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC).

Scale upwards via acquisition of PDG and LOOK could just be small change passing around to make that sound convincing, no doubt with glib phrases like "signficant cost benefits via our global marketing and digital platforms".

SPACs make most of their money from buying and selling companies, with investor subscriptions.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spacs-blank-cheque-companies-explained-000151413.html

Notice the final main paragraph in general terms, it doesn't have to be that, as hinted by others here it can be to buy LOOK and PDG cheaply, hype with phrases like "considerable cost savings integrated into our global digital platform", get scale of operations (as Ocado did in other ways when not burning) and resell assets if necessary.

SPACs may sound strange but they are one of the hottest trends in global investment at the moment.

Over $100bn (£72bn) has been poured into SPACs over the last year and the UK is hoping SPACs will be a growth area for its stock market post-Brexit. The market is also "a major area of growth" for European investment banks, according to Barclays Capital.

Not everyone is so excited. There are concerns that the SPAC boom could turn into a bust and hurt small-time investors. That shift may already be underway.

Whatever happens, SPACs are likely to remain in the headlines for years to come. The sums already raised mean a steady stream of SPAC deals are likely to be announced.

Here's everything you need to know about SPACs:

What is a SPAC?
SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company. They are also known as “blank cheque companies.”

SPACs are essentially empty cash shells — companies with no operations that are created simply to hold investor money and then spend it. Management try to identify a company or assets to buy, thus giving the SPAC stake inherent value.

SPACs typically target deals to take private companies public. The benefit for companies that get acquired is it can be a quicker and easier way of listing on the stock market.

SPACs may sound strange but they are one of the hottest trends in global investment at the moment.

Over $100bn (£72bn) has been poured into SPACs over the last year and the UK is hoping SPACs will be a growth area for its stock market post-Brexit. The market is also "a major area of growth" for European investment banks, according to Barclays Capital.

Not everyone is so excited. There are concerns that the SPAC boom could turn into a bust and hurt small-time investors. That shift may already be underway.

Whatever happens, SPACs are likely to remain in the headlines for years to come. The sums already raised mean a steady stream of SPAC deals are likely to be announced.

Here's everything you need to know about SPACs and why everyone's talking about them.

What is a SPAC?
SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company. They are also known as “blank cheque companies.”

SPACs are essentially empty cash shells — companies with no operations that are created simply to hold investor money and then spend it. Management try to identify a company or assets to buy, thus giving the SPAC stake inherent value.

SPACs typically target deals to take private companies public. The benefit for companies that get acquired is it can be a quicker and easier way of listing on the stock market.

Full text with thanks on https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/new

Always been profitable recently at this price and relatively quickly, but nothing is guaranteed of course. Institutions paid in quantity at 1.10p and Mark Culbert (non-executive director) took 5 million at 1.25p so both or either may protect the recent price range.

There was a determined seller about this time yesterday but we were smiling a bit again by the end of the day. I remain a strong holder and Alien double millionaire - in shares not ££ assets unfortunately :-)

Serious money back in during late lunch when noone was looking, to balance a few weak holders and those who wish to collect +10% and go elsewhere - not sure why. The celebration is because my screen is now showing equal to the the rolling year high of 46.55p. 2/3 to celbrate here actually, ITV went well in the end today and TCAP didn't but had a good run-up.

09-Mar-21 13:42:26 47.416 50,000 Buy* 45.85 46.80 23.71k O
09-Mar-21 13:41:47 47.1108 31,662 Buy* 45.85 46.80 14.92k O