You may recall my highlighting of the detail below last Friday 4 September, on a day with maximum price of 115.3p.
ITV.L Marshall Wace LLP 27 Aug 2019 Open 0.50% 0.50%
Looking at the trading range for the day above, I'm going to use a £1.13 average price obtained as "seat of pants" estimate for detail unpublished, assumption trickling of that amount through as sales right through the day, quite a feat in itself. I personally am glad that the "cheap" stock has been so well taken up by investors with a contrary view of trading & M&A prospects over the past fortnight.
Based on market cap, you've short-sold something like 200m shares and received about £226m less expenses, if you start buyback at the current price you're starting at around £250m, ie the P&L at present is (£24,000,000) and rising.
I think someone (possibly on fee-based income) has presented you with a business case scenario of buyback at £1 per share a 13p per share profit, but respectfully if good luck and good judgement stays with my view you may soon be @ -13p (ie out of pocket) in only a few weeks.
Dealing with Brexit crash hopes and risk/return, Brexit spending is dealt with via a very interesting posting below and it wouldn't take much for 1. Overseas predator (not necessarily from USA) or more likely corporation or private equity to buy up another 9.9% during a short or extended GBP reaction. 2. Blackrock to be more nimble on short covering of their short of 0.57% which looks to still be in profit. 3. Surprise to the upside, business as usual but everything more robust that expected, given two years of pessimistic messages and a year of UK political downside.
Couple of transparency declarations to end - multiple 5-figure shareholder in ITV, not a client of Marshall Wace or its investment offerings. With hindsight, MW was wise up to the spring and has a good cash sum to prove it, though one is only good as one's last deal - such done at 113p is likely to be far less rewarding than one much higher. With hindsight given events later, I bought some of my stock too early at the 165p or so level, even with dividends received, but my averaging down around present levels was fully correct. I'm just essentially a retired WC1 analyst with reduced info and with many calls on my time, no 60h weeks to concentrate on one industry aspect any more, no crystal ball, but I do have the advantage of being outside of the London "bubble".
On an overview, UK creative industries including ITV Studios are thriving at present and its other divisions are well-managed for a cyclical downturn, digital income rising, debt not too bad and South Bank sale should assist, 180p new Berenberg target, lots more here from other serious posters. I'll continue to manage my own money now and do what my "handle" implies, including watching the cliffs, beach, yachts, ferries and occasional cruise liner. Hope this helps with an alternative view for my studious colleagues to ponder.
Hopefully we might even get the two short sellers of ITV.L to short cover more (ie repurchases) - as long-termer BlackRock last did publicly down to 0.57% short, recently reduced on 30 August. But UK-based Marshall Wace is back with a massive 0.50% position on 27 August, a contrary view to many professionals. The good news is that BlackRock has been wiser to date, Marshall Wace is in a significant "paper loss" area in its current position at present, hoping of course for worse times unlike most of us. It must also be hoping for no M&A activity which would be a significant hit to its asset management credentials and take back and more any profit from shorting ITV to last April. Possibly they're simply taking equity positions with good liquidity for the worst possible Brexit crash? In terms of risk/reward and prospects, I beg to disagree and can afford to be wrong as I only have to account to myself!
The max price that day that MW could have received (piling on OUR misery) was 115.3p, and the average is likely to be less.
Retains "buy" rating. Seems a big jump but actually not so if you look at where the share price was only a few months agol It needs professional backing like this to continue the current progress.
Gem Diamonds GEMD.L in RNS for 2019 H1 this morning:
“Prices achieved for the Period are 10% up from the prices achieved in the preceding 6-month period” [2018 H2]
“Pressure on pricing of smaller, commercial type rough diamonds has continued with inventories in the manufacturing and polished markets remaining high following a disappointing 2018 holiday season and weak subsequent restocking” [and also that] “rough prices of large, high-value diamonds have shown signs of weakness, albeit to a much lesser extent than the smaller, commercial type rough diamonds.”
“In the medium to long term, rough diamond prices are expected to be supported by the favourable demand/supply fundamentals, which are underpinned by a continued growth in demand from emerging markets coupled with a limited growth in supply. In the short term, supply is expected to decrease with the depletion of existing mines.”
Transparency: private holder in BRD 0.32% approx, nil holder of GEMD.
Own opinion: our own BRD results at much smaller scale stack up pretty well in comparison, assertions of quality - & less importance of commercial diamonds - probably coming to bear fruit as the new management gets to grip - still early stages of the transformation and hopefully a couple more good RNS to come with the arrival of the South African spring. I suspect
any fallback from sellers between RNS will be met with matching buyers, like some others here I'm content to let management & team do their job and progress the transformation.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GEMD/gem-diamonds-limited-half-year-2019-results-4it7f1xri7jv5er.html
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Ex-dividend tomorrow by 10 US Cents tomorrow morning, so the default base price ignoring other factors will drop by about 8.4p when trading starts. The reward as payout is as soon as Tuesday 24th of this month. I don't know dates for Hong Kong and Johannesburg but they're on the Glencore website.
My only mining stock outside of AIM, as medium private investor with multiple 5-figure GBP invested from 346p on the oldest (with many dividends received fortunately!) to 267p on the newest. I doubled up the holding after the more recent falls after reading the excellent professional analyst guideline targets, but the random factors coming from Mr Trump hit after after a few weeks of good paper profits, part of equity trading and its risk/reward. I'm quietly still confident at this level and I don't need the money out, there are far scarier investments around, shame I had no dividends from elsewhere to average down at 229p recently as I would have done.
We're somewhere on the bottom curve of the cycle regardless of politics and there are better medium-term profits from here than when earnings are higher later in the cycle. Simplistic for such a diverse company, but certainly the economics of copper and supply/demand balance look excellent going into the early 2020s which is my timescale as an oldie, but I'm sure you knew that anyway :-)
Summarises my own feelings - paper loss presently at this price as medium private holder (multiple 5-figure GBP) due to buying times being in past years and recently somewhere around 126p, but never sold any and no plans to. I've received fantastic well-covered dividends to partially compensate and I'm quietly confidently of better prices in the end, regardless of the politics, I suspect some professionals simply ditched everything early in their judgement of cycle regardless of subtleties, knowing they can buy everything back in a morning on their perceived upswing (M&A case excepted!).
Even my broker who doesn't make any significant money out of such things said he liked it and didn't know why it was so cheap. In the USA even with the cyclical aspects of the advertising part a company of this quality would attract a much higher multiple and probably be fought over by Disney, Netflix etc. If it stays below 130p near-term when dividends arrive from various holdings a top-up will be a near-certainty.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-cash-isa-d-aim-113017586.html
£15k of sales mid-morning in five hits Trendfriend, and not me, markets just seem to be horrible at present particularly to certain types of AIM stock in crucial development, perhaps not surprising with the geopolitical environment though I'd have thought that was priced in by now. Good luck from a non-holder who's seen the publicity and RNSs but not got down to full figures, nice idea and the waters may become smoother in due course if translated into cashflow.
Good news this morning, continuous steady tech progress as essential in Georgia as in the UK to improve the breadth of product range and tools for modern life.
Yes, very professional and confident enough to be cautious in parts and give us a wide picture - eg the harder rock lower where the higher grades are, and plans for mitigating the ZA summer rainy season. Definitely still the top of my four AIM holdings, well done.
Quote electronically missing below [referring to 980 tonnes of pegmatite] reads:
The bulk sample has now been shipped from Dakar port and is currently en-route to China.
Wild speculation a week ago but amazingly something along similar lines slipped out low down on today's RNS.
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The Tong Da is now at Casablanca, right direction for the Suez Canal but over and out, we'll probably never know if her holds have our precious cargo - azure-blue sea to prosperity soon, or not so soon.
Cheers! ....some very good analysis on all sides over the weekend, once removed a few pointless one-liners and insults beyond humour, maybe due to financial loss actual, financial loss paper, impatience, wishing to pass on experience, age group habits or whatever. Wish I could have known a few of you long in the past when hiring - 24h 7 day service :-) Anyway, enjoy the RNS occasion of the year while it lasts.....bonne chance tous à propos de Kodal.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tesla-china-tax/china-will-exempt-tesla-cars-from-purchase-tax-idUKKCN1VK1IL
The U.S. EV maker is building a plant in Shanghai, the firm’s first overseas factory. It is due to start production by the end of the year and Tesla has said it should be able to build 3,000 Model 3 vehicles a week in its initial phases. The plant is slated to have annual output capacity of 250,000 vehicles after production of the Model Y is added.
Good luck from a KOD holder only, if all goes well we can all be successful after the lean times, maybe time after averaging down there for me to diversify companies here as well from FTSE-350 autumn dividends before the factors above come into proper play and the professionals dive in at the last minute.
....or even Q4, I must have been working on Bernard self-made deadlines.
Indeed and excellent on the first point Iven, shareholder pressure taking 21 days for the Secretary to work out, or delayed for month end as nomined time. I asked the ladies at St Brides for this on 9th. As someone cruder and probably wiser than me was heard to say, why talk to the horse's **** when you can talk to the horse? But no, I'm not phoning Australia......
Only a trading month till Q3 now......
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tesla-china-tax/china-will-exempt-tesla-cars-from-purchase-tax-idUKKCN1VK1IL
The U.S. EV maker is building a plant in Shanghai, the firm’s first overseas factory. It is due to start production by the end of the year and Tesla has said it should be able to build 3,000 Model 3 vehicles a week in its initial phases. The plant is slated to have annual output capacity of 250,000 vehicles after production of the Model Y is added.
Grafton Group PLC GFTU Liberum Capital Hold 729.50 682.50 865.00 Reiterates
Grafton Group PLC GFTU Peel Hunt Add 729.50 682.50 860.00 Upgrades
Prices are 15 minutes ago, when issues, target price
Joe, that a bit would be the case for >30% so I understand it but the figures you mention are awry somewhere, the exact for Mr Bramall is 18.55% as in today's RNS text as at the end. There has been sector bid talk in the market for some time but noone really knows the hunter and the prey, my own pure outsider guess in Volkswagen to increase their own share of the online market as indicated by completely separate plans released there.
I'm with you in that LOOK is my biggest holding outside of the FTSE350, no less than tripled up after recent events (and my withdrawal from TW.) and maybe my biggest holding anyway, some £72k or 23% of portfolio bought both below and above the directors, with average a bit above current levels, probably in line with wider UK markets. I trust Mr Bramall more than a lot of outsider pundits, he knows his own business better than anyone and made plenty of money a few years ago at cyclical peak and is putting it back in now. Fewer make serious medium-term money on retail-based cyclical stocks when things are rosy. I'm honesty surprised how strong the relentless professional selling pressures are when they know how avidly he's snapping up the stock, or at least providing good support. A small amount of short selling has at least been frozen where it is for some time, on the figures I've seen. If the share price goes back over 55p on something serious upside Odey & GLG would probably have to short cover for their 2.36%.
The dividend (as modified by future policy he decides) and discount to asset backing are icing on the cake, and there's not the future debt overhang next year that PDG suffers from, I'm a small holder there also.
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Following the purchase, the total interest of Tony Bramall and his connected persons in Lookers plc is 72,208,051 ordinary shares, representing 18.55 per cent of the total voting rights of the Company.>>
£5k late morning and £3k on t'other (NEX) exchange at lunchtime, quiet but happy to be that way, cheers if any of you are behind them! Only possible probably because of some cheap stock with the market makers yesterday afternoon, that made me a little paranoid after the Wednesday over-brief blunt morning interventions and my own pointers at balanced longer coverage for anyone interested. The press article when provided was actually positive on BRD in a dull world market. But then if BRD had sky-rocketed I wouldn't be buying, not my style! Last day of August trading tomorrow, fingers and toes crossed.....September also brings dividends from huge-PLC land to spend, reward for this ever-changing game and decades of 55-hour weeks :-)
Analysts' target price still 126p at present, good luck from a non-holder who can see the interest.
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article/id/6565292/