George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Indeed, anyone "long" as owner has the right to take profits based on own decisions, cash needs and research, keeps the volume flowing and any single individual - other than the very astute Wayne Gibson a contributor here - will probably only make a blip for a few tens of minutes or a couple of hours on a busy day with the usual consolidation. Far better than impatience in the gaps between news.
My own thoughts on short-time target for practical reasons are somewhat below £2, and specifically at £1.60 - £1.70 future quote c/o the market makers. Mr Waugh took in a lot ten months ago at £1.50 and after his resignation last week is AFAIK as now free as the rest of us. At present on official notifications he has 46,466 shares (1.42%) ie not huge but not insignificant either. As I read matters he didn't participate in May, so may or may not wish to partially profit at this level to fund retirement or any other projects, or retain of course knowing the new management, as I have done with unchanged 0.32%.
Takes up to two working days to confirm, but all the signs of another bear attack by shorter Millennium International Management LP similar to the 0.09% notified on Monday, attempting to panic others after the Pendragon IPDG) nadir yesterday from a weaker competitor. In a trade which usually hunts in predator packs, they are alone in aggressively increasing their position at present, others in the "alternative asset" area are reducing exposure after taking profits.
Those who do not wish to panic - including Mr Bramall, directors and wiser Odey Asset Management (as posting below) may wish to take up the cheap stock released while it lasts and prove Millennium's bet wrong, I suspect but cannot of course prove Millennium (and more importantly its clients!) are underwater (ie in a paper loss-making position) from deals during the private notification era (<0.5%), due to the share price rising significantly from recent lows.
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls
https://www.investments.halifax.co.uk/research-centre/news-centre/article/?id=7026068&type=bsm
Indeed Halfpenny, director dealings detailed on Morningstar took advantage of summer overselling and bargain prices:
Director/Date/Type Amount Price (GBX) Value (£) Amount %
Mrs. Mary Elaine Harris
28/06/2019 | Purchase 3,113 107.72 3,353.00 38,478 < 0.001 Fees
Mrs. Mary Elaine Harris
24/05/2019 | D 1,638 109.56 1,795.00 35,365 < 0.001 Dividend Reinvestment Plan(DRIP)
Ms. Anna Manz
24/05/2019 | D 290 109.56 318.00 33,558 < 0.001 Dividend Reinvestment Plan(DRIP)
Ms. Carolyn J McCall OBE
15/05/2019 | Purchase 44,589 111.00 49,494.00 226,187 0.006
Sir Peter Lytton Bazalgette
14/05/2019 | Purchase 43,748 114.00 49,873.00 357,245 0.009
(with thanks for extract)
Holder Date Type Change Current Lookers plc LOOK.L
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 12 Sep 2019 Change -0.05% 1.27%
If my calculations are correct, this would be about 103,000 shares purchased, not huge for Odey but in the right direction and costing somewhat more to short-cover today.
Going the other way the previous day with unknown (private) starting position and a short sale of minimum 0.01% (20,600) is Millennium International Management LP now at 0.51%. The good news for most reading this here is that this new public position is underwater effectively a loss-maker for company and its clients already at present. Its decision is by many accepted accounts high risk, betting in the opposite direction to Odey and also going opposite to the excellent potential seen by several brokers after the summer selloff and importantly Mr Bramall with massive director purchases.
My own significant holdings but purely as medium private investor were mentioned earlier, transparency from primary source is provided daily by:
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls
Halfpenny, there is almost daily volatility at present with professionals favouring oversold value stocks including ITV some days and defensives on other days (plus oil-related at present), depending on geopolitics (including drone strikes!) exchange rates, interest rates, interest rate prospects, such is life as equity owner:-) The share is still significantly higher than when many investors knew little about the SDN hidden gem, it's just that the best immediate rises were presumably seen by active own Liberum clients, fair enough they're the ones who pay for the analysis team these days. And the premium to the peak of despair (and maybe short-selling?) only five weeks ago is still very pleasant - on 15 August when I wish I'd had dividends to spend the low was 102.85p and the close 103.6p.
Well done Dallo, real hidden story here c/o clients but you got there first, indeed deserves wider readership & viewing even if not at RNS stage for the company yet:
https://liberum.s3.amazonaws.com/ITV_BUY_TP_180p_SDN_a_hidden_gem_15_pgs.pdf
https://liberum.com/videos/itvsdn/
Please forgive me for returning - as promised - when there may well be more interesting better days and news stories in the pipeline for the vast majority long investors here. But being a persistent badger has its place in the realm of transparency that Marshall Wace values on its home page, and the company has a good chance today to reduce into the private notification only area of <0.49% and effectively withdraw this intimidation.
Marshall Wace LLP is the shorter who opened a new public position of 0.5% on 27 August, and on releases so far did not take advantage of short-covering. Without repeating the details earlier, the amount underwater on the position its clients is in the region of (£2,229,000) real time. Marshall Wace offers "outstanding risk-adjusted returns" (eg those from its spring offensive). Risk/reward of course but all ITV investors (including BlackRock) did from 27 August onwards was take up the cheap stock themselves.
Predators usually hunt in packs, but MW is in practice (if not strictly) alone, not even Odey as company. How come you say - there is BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd with short 0.57% reduced from 0.63% at the end of August? Ah but the bigger picture is there on Morningstar's long ownership list:
ShareholdersName Type Amount Holding %
BlackRock Inc - 201,896,410 5.02
All long shareholder groups are allowed to vary their holdings up and down without comment from the clifftop, and between the UK & USA to suit their day-to-day judgements, needs, tax detail and other opportunities. BlackRock globally for whatever reason has chosen a huge long and a small short, and the rental fees will almost certainly be nominal compared to those at MW.
Final throwaway thoughts for Marshall Wace & clients as I urge it to stick with superior researched companies, the over-hyped and the over-indebted
1) if you have to be so active with this fund area and make sure your team's exit strategy either human or algo is clear, this position had a very tidy exit £-7-figure profit never taken @ 104p-106p.
2) I am delighted that one of your core values shared with me is "We are committed to contributing to society" but did you ever tell the designing PR company ALL of what you do?
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions
Just wanted to echo the celebrations and relief of my five honorable friends here today with my particular theme.
Marshall Wace LLP is the shorter who opened a new public position of 0.5% on 27 August, and on releases so far did not take advantage of short-covering yesterday. Without repeating the details earlier, the amount underwater on the position for its 07:00 Monday meeting and its clients is in the region of (£2,670,000). Marshall Wace offers "outstanding risk-adjusted returns" (ie those from your spring offensive - well done). Risk/reward of course but all ITV investors (including BlackRock) did from 27 August onwards was take up the cheap stock themselves. Even Reuters has noticed the UK rotation from defensive to quality value and the better cyclicals - even without M&A. Makes a change from private investors (PIs) being stuffed by bad timing.
But a week is a long time in politics and the markets, continue if you wish, you at MW may be correct with record bonuses while I queue for fruit and my neighbours' SMC exports are stranded in lorries. But you may not be, Brits (and indeed our Irish and Continental friends) are very resilient once decisions are made. As I'm not a client - though I qualify - purely for the sake of example I call your recent alternative asset positioning the "Yellowhammer Fund" for obvious reasons; the true name is not on public record. I have discovered more to write on during the first half of Monday morning but close for now with my random noticing of your other recent short Britvic (BVIC)....oops.
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls
Cheers Nige (also to Dallo for confirming the other point). Indeed so and published this very day in the Thursday update - blog backed with his own purchases and financial instruments.
Something new for me and interesting there, ITV together with another company is developing ten minute episodes of dramas and shows for the new generation of non TV watchers, stuff to watch easily on phones. He likes that looking to the future. I owe myself a top-up if prices stay this low.
Smalltrader, as my posting colleague says in a more amusing way, Goldman Sachs have reduced their holding (including financial instruments) by around 16,000 shares if my arithmetic is correct - a change from 21.01 to 20.97% though the vast majority is in instruments (derivatives etc) not shares such as I and possibly you own, so the exact point is as usual obscure.
The second RNS - ITV announces Tender Offer - must be the story of the day and beyond my own expertise, though I trust the expertise of the ITV board and continue to hold with no sell intention, will collect the dividend as part of a diversified portfolio. Sometimes effects are short-lived.
Dfslicker, your first paragraph is welcome reading after the lunchtime bear raid, but without a source link I decided to do my own spreadsheet anyway, the targets here on the clifftop from the top analysts who have updated for 2019 are signficantly higher. This own table includes all 13 leading brokers found and 12 specific on target prices, ten fortunately higher than today's price fortunately, the two discontents away from consensus will hopefully stay out on a limb.
Before I get there I've asked for the top line (Liberum) to go into (this) LSE's data bank. It represents unfortunately a second correction to my earlier Marshall Wace LLP exclusive, the 180p target is at Liberum only at present, apologies for the momentary slip. Honoured that Berenberg should offer their reiteration so soon after, as newest entry and happy to reconfirm the truth.
Target Date Broker Recomm. Change Price when issued
180 06/09/19 Liberum Capital Buy Reiterates 121.2
170 25/07/19 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight Reiterates 113.25
170 07/05/19 Citigroup Buy Retains 134.7
170 29/01/19 Credit Suisse Outperform Upgrades 128.35
161 08/05/19 Shore Capital Buy Reiterates 131.6
150 08/05/19 Numis Add Retains 131.6
130 26/07/19 Deutsche Bank Hold Reiterates 113.7
125 12/09/19 Berenberg Hold Reiterates 125.6
125 25/07/19 Barclays Capital Equal weight Reiterates 113.25
125 25/07/19 UBS Neutral Unchanged 113.25
121 03/06/19 Goldman Sachs Neutral Reiterates 107.25
96 03/09/19 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Underperform Reiterates 116.55
-- 25/06/19 Macquarie Underperform Reiterates 106.85 Unspecified target
Source: https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/ITV/ITV.html - all prices in GBP
Transparency: own ITV holding, medium private, no sell intention
All happening today, part-extract with thanks:
"ITV is also on a cheap rating, despite the big rise in its share price over the last four weeks. At 125.75p (market cap £5.1bn) it trades at 9.8 times forecast earnings, with a prospective 6.4% dividend yield. In contrast to Cineworld, it has a strong balance sheet, with net debt of £1.1bn and gearing of 1.3 times EBITDA.
The current uncertainty in the UK economic and political environment, saw ITV post a 7% fall in external revenue in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, it continues to pursue its strategy of creating a stronger, more diversified business to enable it to take advantage of evolving viewing and advertising opportunities. Online revenues in the period increased 18%, and management is confident second-half revenues for its ITV Studios business will enable the studios to deliver a full-year increase of at least 5%.
Whatever the outcome of Brexit, the removal of uncertainty should benefit ITV, with advertisers better able to plan ahead. There may even be a significant one-off boost to this year’s revenue in the event government winds up spending £100m on advertising for a no-deal Brexit.
For the longer term, I think ITV is well positioned to deliver sustainable growth and attractive returns for investors as it becomes an increasingly digital entertainment company. The appeal of owning such a business and sterling’s current weakness may not be lost on overseas players. Witness US toy giant Hasbro‘s recently agreed takeover of UK film and content firm Entertainment One."
Mr Chester summarises my own views as holder well: seeing near-term possibilities and long-term prospects, he’d be happy to buy ITV shares today.
Over the summer the company was often worth 0.12p to 0.14p per share prior to recent tremendous news, though the impatient or those with other financial needs did of course take it lower from time to time. Nothing is certain, but anyone expecting 0.10p in the near future is very likely to be sadly disappointed. I do know enough to know that if you want a want a quality medium-term holding, a good time to buy is during the sell-sell times and overshoots of the short-termers, such as this morning with the possible exception of a minority of astute buyers, timing is an art not a precise science. Especially broker to broker, you should be able to get a proper market size as well, not the absurdly low 200000 NMS (market size) which is showing and clearly affecting some electronic trades.
My 2.4 million shares from July (feels like longer!) are unchanged in quantity throughout and I'm happy to hold with a paper profit, now with a much firmer resource base. At today's prices, I may consider a smaller top-up from dividends later in the month, if the market-makers will let me have a sensible quantity :-)
Thanks for the insight Liamo, the £1 warrants (500:1 on 0.2p) expire somewhere around May 2021, the precise date hasn't been specified but would probably be obvious by that time.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRD/bluerock-diamondsplc-replacement-placing-and-subscription--ybohuvmre7blsy3.html
I was one of the first anywhere to write here (BRD) re the SVS administration early in August, knowing the misery and shock it had caused, four days prior to the excellent Daily Mail coverage which stands out amongst the absence elsewhere. My hope on significant progress is the end of November, ie for the CREST portfolios, things are said to be a lot simpler than at Beaufort Securities (2018) where the press reported ten (10) investors lost out in the end and on a quick look there had to be a court case on costs involving FSCS & the (different) administrator.
Apologies, gremlins hit the waterfront calculation in the haste to set out my proposition, a missing decimal point spoiled a posting otherwise to my quality. The amended version 2 estimated figures for yesterday should read:
"Based on market cap, you've short-sold something like 20.0m shares and received about £22.6m less expenses, if you start buyback at the current price you're starting at around £25.0m, ie the P&L at present is (£2,400,000) and rising." Makes a lot more sense like that, and updated to this morning the MW position on the same basis is "underwater" by (£2,590,000) and rising.
Oversold quality value companies such as ITV are in strong demand at present, rarely seen wider own portfolio changes like yesterday before. Rotation is probably out of cash and defensives, a switch made here earlier.
Back to sultanas on my Tesco Wheat Biscuits & milk now, no apples yet :-)
Hello chaps and chapesses, Glenda has her obvious charms but fickleness and broken hearts as well:-) With the puzzlement sometimes evident here in spite of bravado, it may be worthwhile to share my own two different strategies as mature private investor able to sleep soundly, though these aren't recommendations.
Her key magic is that you are almost on equal terms with the market makers and professionals - no stamp duty due to Jersey registration and hardly any spread. Glencore inhabits a select club shared as you've found with CEY, PFC, WPP and more loosely with the largest AIM shares.
I often ignore excellent days like today, I choose the sell - sell days when traders are miserable over Trump, Brexit, interest rates, exchange rates, even copper prices being down on the day, GLEN is more than that and a lot is already factored into the price paid. My last large buys were during that awful mine invasion, some nominally huge value was knocked off the company's value and it took three working days to bounce back, professionals and their computers making decisions in a fraction of a second have different agendas, not even worth trying to copy them.
Next, trust Ivan Glasenberg if you can, he's been in this far from gentle arena for a long time and has a lot of "skin in the game" so his interests run in parallel with yours. I only invest money not needed for other purposes, so in practice after other sales, recently from TW. and a small property investment. I invest more than I really want in GLEN on the chosen day:
1. All ££ starts life in theory as a medium-term investment as I just don't know which way the share price will jump, the world is too complex to know that from day to day. But GLEN will pay me 6.7% into ISA or SIPP to wait and see or almost five times the rate on an easy access cash ISA. The buybacks - usually currently every day at present - are a hidden long-term reward boost as well. The current price area still looks good value to me as holder for several years but I would say that wouldn't I?
2. Often the gloom isn't justified at all, lo and behold all is sweetness and light again, and you're up a few percent, if another prospect arises after I've over-invested in GLEN, I typically profit-take one third, again almost at market makers' rates and keep the profits along with the dividends to balance possible negative times.
3. By the law of averages, at some stage you probably have to medium-term hold with a paper loss and the rewards above are compensation - that's equity investing unless you're very lucky :-) Only twice in two years have I got in anywhere at 10-year lows, and by chance and not here!
Transparency - holder of GLEN for about 20% of portfolio, still some way off £-6-figure but I may get there. No other huge miners, but CEY profits taken too early and two successful AIM ones held & written about and a third with prospects only. Good luck, hope of interest.
Nige, 5eights has the correct figure from LSE and ********** which is confirmed (15 minutes delay) from "the other" LSE ie Londonstockexchange.com.
Price (GBX) 124.75 Var % (+/-) +1.96% (Up +2.40)
High 125.75 Low 122.30
Volume 22,105,380 Last close 122.35 on 09-Sep-2019
Bid 124.70 Offer 124.85
Trading status Regular Trading Special conditions NONE
Exactly mirrors my own view still as loyal holder, it almost feels as if trading is based on interest rate expectations in other areas rather than actual earnings and prospects in Georgia. I don't like extracting too much but so worth repeating and it's high up on my "top up from all dividends received by portfolio" list at this price:
(Start quote) As one of the biggest banking operators in the Eurasia region, this particular one can be confident of producing strong and sustained profits growth as population levels rise and GDP growth clicks through the gears.
The firm’s robust earnings potential was illustrated in the first half of 2019 when pre-tax profit ballooned 36.9%, a period when strong trading at its retail bank helped the loan book swell 30.5% year-on-year. Even as issues like rising competition and tighter regulation bite, it’s clear Bank of Georgia is capable of delivering some truly stunning profits growth.
Yet despite this, the FTSE 250 firm currently boasts a dirt-cheap forward P/E ratio of 5.4 times, suggesting (to me at least) it’s being shockingly undervalued by the market. Combine this with an inflation-bashing dividend yield of 6% and I reckon Bank of Georgia is a top buy for contrarian investors.(End quote)
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cash-isa-poorer-d-rather-075758236.html
Back at the January and July levels, and quite a remarkable fight-back, so also congratulations on the buyers who didn't panic during the dip and value the company more than the single short-seller left:
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd (Canada) 09 Jul 2019 0.59%
Excellent that BlackRock with a higher short position closed out completely on 28 March.
Only company in my portfolio where I've never written to date - little expertise for any insight and not word-loose enough to write on nothing much at all! But at 7377 shares in ISA @ just over 269p with good dividends received I can probably afford to be a little complacent and let is counteract some paper minuses elsewhere, well done on the recovery. The single thing that I do take away from earlier reports is that when things were little changed on a daily basis (ie markets were boring to some extent - as they should be often!) revenues went down somewhat as the TCAP product offerings were less in demand. By contrast now when events and politicians are making things more volatile the opposite may hopefully apply.