Member Info for Alan-by-the-sea

Nice find thanks Mystic; except for compulsory items ITV seems to keep some things low-key in RNS for whatever reason, probably because any individual change for the better within a £5bn company only has a small effect. But one has to get multiple things like this right for upside suprises at the financial year end, and to allow the analysts studying ITV all the time to get their tweaks right. Cheers again from a sunny clifftop.

This is a share which is a brilliant one for private investors able to take the choppy waters, top up and be patient because its lower end is purely related to global factors of buying or selling the FTSE250 and huge globals financial institutions deciding to buy or sell "European Banks", the strength of the dollar, US interest rate expectations etc, I've stopped trying to predict or evaluate them. Substantial share price moves are completely unrelated to BGEO profitability and simply based on whether the sector is unloved or very unloved.

The posters here, the Shares Magazine and Motley Fool commentary are spot on, it's frustrating at least at present for shareholders and management not to see that reflected in the share price, and for me not to have much in the way of spare funds or dividends to take advantage.

BGEO just gets on with what it knows best, doing well with TBCG as duopoly in its own niche market of Georgia, in spite of Russia next door still less controversial than flashy MTRO and other supposed niches with their spin and failings making them predator targets for short sellers. The end markets for Bank of Georgia and regional underbanking enable earnings, growth and margins without PPI distractions in the middle of a downturn that the likes of LLOY and BARC could only dream about. Massive value must come out in the end, and I'll enjoy excellent rising dividends while I wait.

Indeed chaps and chapesses, moving as I write but nice entry point today while you can still buy for 132p or a fraction below. I'm not now expecting any significant delayed trade reports, the sales that did arrive seem to be real-time figures and the market makers just seemed to be pretty good in meeting the needs of buyers and themselves, sellers sometimes also. I did consider waiting for today's settling down to 130p myself, but as the crystal ball was a bit misty I simply judged that it might never get there, and the risk of missing out simply to gain a chance of £100 wasn't worth it.

But there is a bit of science as well as art to my thoughts, the present buy price seems to be within the low end of the range last Thursday and early Friday BEFORE the 20 carat announcement was made. And just as important and obscured by the 500:1 consolidation, the price early in the year during the custodianship of Adam Waugh was typically 145p-160p, and all on offer then were typical AIM hopes, forward-thinking statements (to put it politely!) and losses during development. Now at a lower price offer we have real prospects, good future returns for the patient and hopefully a maiden profit with nice surprises as sparklers on the gem cake.

A quality company with October results and good RNSs can also easily accommodate the needs and accumulated dividends of SVS Securities clients who should be appointing new brokers now ready for release in mid- to late- November if my earlier scenarios prove OK. I have appointed my fourth broker, no plugging but after reading the small print elsewhere it stood out by a mile and has a £25 application fee. Larger SVS clients will also be without the pressure of senior staff there encouraging BRD sales to raise funds for their own latest placing resale.

Good price within that spread and good size of trade also possible currently, completed edging up own holding to 0.342% (11157) over the past few days at 14:25, I was a good boy and did not comment anywhere whilst doing so. The last three comments here all probably have something to them, and I pressed the button being fairly convinced a authorised delayed red will come through at some stage.

But I'm impressed at the lack of panic copying by you all here, most un-AIM like to have genuine long-term holders :-) Several of you have simply like me increased your holdings while whatever it is is underway. Here's to the results and for the random positive events, I like that Gary Player phrase quoted by SP Angel '‘the more I practice the luckier I get'.....

NEXT PLC Tiger Global Management, LLC 0.63% -0.23%
https://shorttracker.co.uk/daily/ (figures notified today cover Fri 27 September)
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls

This fund reducing exposure and the other three totalling 2.9% short in all must be feeling the heat at £63+ share price, unwanted upside event to them, presumably their planned scenario was for it to decline as weaker retailers have done. Well done Lord Wolfson & team!

Own transparency: long-term holder, medium holding private investor (via SIPP).

No confirmation of course for two working days, but having studied similar attacks elsewhere all the signs within the real-time trades again. "Buy on the rumour, sell on the event" must have special meaning for such people sadly unable to enjoy good news of a type that we all awaited. You as short sellers will be badly burned at some stage and have borrowing fees while you wait, except possibly for Odey who is in my books the most astute and will have short-covered most but not all, possibly even with cheap stock sold by weaker participants in the same area.

My own speculation to finish - plagiarised of course, true to form as retired analyst! Huawei or Samsung?
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0009619924/

No, Rachel, for you - as new member - a technology company of this quality and at this stage of development and production doesn't indulge in or even need such things, why should they? The scrutiny by Muddy Waters, short sellers and vulture funds is massive and even something tiny would be exaggerated ten times over and have severe price, regulatory and career implications. Paradores with his/her Spanish handle is on ADVFN not LSE, posters there are throwing their darts at the bulletin board every couple of hours and every now and then someone there will tease and then hit the bullseye, maybe even knowing past RNS timing. That's not to say that there's not benefit to any individual with a tech company of this complexity in extended study, research and timing planning beyond the IQE superficial commentary clichés often seen even in formal analysis, and finding aspects missed. But illegal activity, again no, hope this answers your query.

Own transparency: medium investor medium to long-term SIPP holding only, no other connection with IQE.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/UFO/half-year-report-hscsgi3y7vwrath.html

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/iqe/news/rns/story/wvlnn3r
As predicted or guessed here, that share price strength and Odey short reduction by 0.17% wasn't for nothing, nicely done.......

Ken, just seen your query though as non-IMB holder, they're not continuing down that path to the relief of many when announced. My largest holdings are now smoke-free GLEN, AV., BGEO, ITV, TCAP, NXT with BRD for diversity. Here's to a continuing excellent day here....
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/193930/imperial-brands-announces-new-dividend-policy.aspx

Another industry snippet not particularly well-known that needs a wider audience :-)
https://tbivision.com/2019/09/19/itv-studios-agrees-deal-with-bbc-for-extended-iplayer-rights/

Please forgive me for being repetitive chaps, emboldened by £0.45m short reversal in 24h elsewhere where I write, assisted of course by institutions and possibly the astute Odey. But as with career I believe investment is 90% beavering away and only 10% excitement.

Predators as in the wild often hunt in packs, but the good news is that Marshall Wace LLP is now a lone wolf underwater on its newish declared public position (0.5%) by £2,270,000 or so [sources at end and calculation detail earlier]. I must pay tribute to BlackRock UK for its wisdom in getting us there.

Historically - possibly or possibly not due to publication delays to following week - MW is most dangerous on a Wednesday and used 0.5% as a launch pad for 0.6% then 0.7%, we'll have to wait and see if they added to our geopolitical gloom yesterday as long investors. But the upside risk at ITV negatively affecting their clients' funds is now much higher IMO:
1. Unlike the recent past, several charts are now with us, particularly if the recent relative stability and consolidation is maintained and we can move slightly higher.
2. The SDN hidden gem. The ITV share price certainly does not reflect the value of the £1.1bn asset (Liberum evaluation not mine - see link earlier) and SDN gains very little attention from either analysts or investors.
3. Margin expansion from cost efficiencies & boost from non-advertising revenues.
4. Routine positive effects beyond my expertise, within that Euro bond issue.
5. M&A (mergers and acquisitions) - just because long suggested doesn't mean that they're not going to happen and the GBP effect will only last so long. Must be like the Sword of Damocles for any ITV shorter, particularly a small fund like Marshall Wace's. How many there got sacked after the Ocado debacle?
6. Routine stuff of rising targets as and when more analysts take on board the Liberum revelations, quite frankly some of those even above the bottom quartile look like unrevised Brexit worst scenario targets (needed for MW's breakeven....)
7. Related, Amazon developments covered here regarded by some analysts as unwanted competion, but with respect it's far subtler than that when content is considered. And maybe more :-)
8. Something else out of the blue that cheers the team here on seeing the blue. I have no related information.
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0033986497/

(Jason Windsor confirmed as Chief Financial Officer, was Interim from 1 July last)
Windsor, who was initially Aviva group’s Chief Capital & Investments Officer, was earlier promoted to CFO of Aviva UK Life, Aviva’s largest business, from September 2016.

Having joined Aviva in August 2010, Windsor concentrated on the group’s strategy, mergers and acquisitions, capital, insurance investments and establishing Aviva Ventures. He played a key role in Aviva’s acquisition of Friends Life in 2015. Prior to joining Aviva, he was Managing Director in the Financial Institutions Group at Morgan Stanley.
(Source - Aviva archive)

Just seen today's FCA figures, all of the Millennium International Management public short position was reversed on Friday with repurchases of at least 0.21% or about 817,400 shares if my calculations are correct, the position is now within the private notification area. Never thought I would ever say this within a week, but thank you for being so astute and nimble for your clients, now in a better position bearing in mind Lookers at 55.8p.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B17MMZ46/
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls

Thanks Mick B, good tool that and matches the original material at FCA, cheers for the tip and good luck from the clifftop for your holdings, always learning after decades of share ownership. Only had three winners out of 13 today amongst the misery, this was one and my largest holding (one quoted earlier) was another.

Correction, I realised as soon as I reread own work. The reduction in ITV short position on 30 August was by BlackRock UK not Odey. Apologies, Odey is wise enough not to have any public ITV short position.

Odey Asset Management (I have no connection except as medium-term IQE holder etc) seems to be ahead of the game in spotting such positions, and no doubt attracts copycat followers. But to be fair they may well be ahead in knowing when to reduce positions - as here - and crystallise a profit. Most of us know own complacency in our "long" holdings of seeing a profit, waiting for more of the same then seeing it disappear and turn to loss :-(

My other two stocks with Odey shorts noticed are not growth at all, but cyclicals (ITV and Lookers LOOK), these have also seen reductions by Odey so almost a consensus of minds well for a few days or weeks at least! Both of those were oversold with adverse comment that looked somewhat superficial and related to the past as well as Brexit, have had half-decent recoveries (like here hopefully more to come....) and significant director buying.

The weird aspect is that within days of Odey's clever positioning two lesser funds Marshall Wace & Millennium respectively took the opposite view but the "cheap" stock thus released was just snapped up by other investors, making both shorters"underwater" relative to their initial public position - MW by £-7-figure "in the red" just on ITV. No tears here.....

Anyway, this is taking us a little away from IQE, if you want to try and work out the strategy of any of the shorters you really need the original spreadsheet in the link (2 separate pages valid to today) and the ability to sort the columns (Data - Sort in top menu). Please let us know any interesting conclusions.
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/24/2-ftse-100-financial-stocks-that-i-think-could-perform-better-than-expected/

Not a holder of the stock personally (only Aviva in the research as my main banking holding is now BGEO) though I have been in the past and wish you all well.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/24/2-ftse-100-financial-stocks-that-i-think-could-perform-better-than-expected/

Reflects my own views as medium-sized private investor and long-term holder also, after a bit of a gap I topped up this year as averaging down from dividend money.

Yep, Thursday's just confirmed exactly as predicted, pretty unsubtle stuff if a retired analyst on a distant clifftop can spot it. Get your human intervention or algos better planned, my younger colleagues, Mr Bramall knows more than you and you're about six months too late on this cycle to get a reliable shorting profit on Lookers, Odey are the wise ones. There are far simpler and cheaper Brexit hedges with less risk for your clients than this one.

The good news for those of us who are long is that the cheap stock generated has been snapped up by more positive holders and buyers, well done. Millennium International Management LP is now underwater even more than before, ie it has even more of a loss-making position than when it started within the private declaration area.