Member Info for Alan-by-the-sea

Unlikely meeting of minds between my own thoughts today (for hedges read shorts to some extent...) and J P Morgan:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/barnier-says-deal-difficult-still-possible-brexit-update
(section timed at 11:12 BST)

"JPMorgan Chase & Co. credit strategists are so confident that the U.K. will avoid crashing out of the EU without a deal this month that they recommend closing Brexit hedges on no-deal exposed borrowers such as Lloyds Banking Group Plc and ITV Plc."

MacRock, as has been said here, nothing goes up in a straight line. But specifically and dangerous to them due to unlimited upside liability, Citadel Europe LLP knocked ITV's Friday 130p+ rally on the head by joining equally overconfident Marshall Wace LLP in the public short arena, Citadel hit the borderline 0.5% from lower unknown private notifications.

Probably a good day punt though if bought back quickly at below £1.30, which can and does happen though normally in the private area, it takes two working days for us to know. Hedge and vulture funds other than Odey often seem to let midly profitable positions turn into losers though! I repeat my ITV parallel with Next plc (NXT) as quality company with mostly British earnings, capable of damaging shorter clients' money long-term and thus AuM (assets under management).
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls

Time, value and quality of earnings plus sensible debt will reap its rewards in time regardless of such activities. I think in time even with geopolitical and M&A uncertainty Carolyn McCall of ITV and Emma Walmsley of GSK with steady progress will cement their solid reputations as FTSE-100 Chief Executives and we will share in that.

SuperRoty, the main auction house believed to be used in the past - someone may have confirmation - has its next tender results announced on Friday 25 October - with a $$$ figure due for that last superb sparkler, the 20.72 carat stone of gem quality. Then Friday 22 November; to avoid unnecessary disappointment note that there is obviously not always not monthly RNS news, there is no sale in December and any Friday news comes later in the day, not at 07:00.
https://www.csdiamonds.info/tender-dates
https://www.csdiamonds.info/

Newsflow common sense IMO would separate the Q3 results and the tender results. Working out possible Q3 RNS dates from previous management's timescales seems to have been counterproductive in making a few investors impatient though! There is flexibility and it's the same as any other complex task that you or I do in career, it can vary with all sorts of factors. Still the impatience has provided some relatively cheaper stock for a few of us, while the vast majority of shareholders are indeed patient and understand, the situation is a lot happier than at many AIM explorers.

Astute Odey took advantage on Friday of geopolitical price weakness carried over from Thursday to buy back (short cover) 0.10% of stock. IMO that's how it's supposed to be done, not wait until panic buying during a surprise upside welcome to us who are long.

Still 1.08% to go at Odey but hopefully similar support in due course as the economic cycle rises again, Br*** and regulatory aspects start to conclude, and the share price catches up with the declared asset value of the company instead of being at a discount.

Unrelated to the above but something is up at weaker competitor Pendragon (PDG) after several months in the doldrums, a Swedish company has significantly increased its long stake. I have no information not in the public arena but am a shareholder at PDG also, at a lower level.

"These are impressive figures that I’d normally associate with high-quality businesses. [Mr Head] wouldn’t expect such a profitable company to trade on less than 10 times earnings unless its profits were in terminal decline." (End quote)
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/10/14/tem-for-monday-why-the-itv-share-price-rose-8-6-in-september/

On what feels like a hangover early Monday as the cautious take a bit of profits after Friday's party :-) Admirably sums up most of my own views on ITV. There was another wider quote over the weekend that expansion in film & television category had kept the UK economic figures out of recession.

Sorry that should read late July, Mr Aylward must be influencing me :-)

Still no trace on the clifftop except on the indirect link suggested, but did find another convincing analyst writeup from late June with very convincing factual arguments as to why the team at Morgan Stanley is very likely to be wrong (with weaknesses & past record). Hints also perhaps of their own agenda, bearing in mind we're not the only ones hurting.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/morgan-stanley-nemaska-lithium-damage-done-joe-lowry/

Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached
9.00
Total now: 13,463,299,905
Position of previous notification of 03/05/2013
8.31
Source today's routine RNS

Dec, you are entitled to your belief and two liner, and if sincerely held - ie a return to 20 November 2012 - then go opposite to BlackRock USA and don't start or increase your stock holding, or read the substantial risks clauses and buy a CFD to attempt to profit from it. My mention of MTRO that you write about was only to highlight Marshall Wace's routine strengths as vulture fund profiting in vulnerable areas.

All investment is risk/reward balance, the majority view here for ITV is reflected by Taverham and RRR below, and Nige and others behind the scenes. Professionals and public shorter have probably priced in 95% of the UK political risk long ago in the late spring, and can move far faster than us as private investors. These Brexit expectations are also reflected some of the trimmed price targets typically around 125p-145p that I pinned down here in full a few days ago.

Anyway, I've written enough facts and fact-based opinions for one day, with new rain pelting down over the sea but with early signs of an end to the ITV trade thunderstorm, fingers crossed here as well :-)

Indeed RRR, it doesn't take many attacks like the set of trades highlighted earlier for even a £5bn company to drift, only £17m or so of stock is traded on an average day and often less. The attacks are much easier to spot and write about with smallcap companies. The fundamentals other than Brexit are actually much better than a month ago and two months ago, particularly after the Euro bond refinancing. Days like today are only dangerous if they set the algorithms going in other computers that aren't promptly reversed, or longer-term if management doesn't deliver, and I think they've been honest on their headwinds recently.

The easy hits to being short were IMO in the spring, cyclical aspects are now slowly on the upside though noone has a crystal ball; generalised doom and gloom from experience sometimes represents the best buying opportunity. Few make money these days outside of the USA when things are peaking. My star performer for 2018-19 where absolute attention to detail paid off was in quantity and out of the blue - DCG but don't look that one up any more.

The only positive aspect to a horrible day like today is that if you, I, BlackRock USA (major holder), or shorters want cheap stock available for a time below £1.20 they can get it in quantity and quickly. I don't do short-term trading in ITV and will simply wait for developments and steady progress on matters we write about here, and will be paid interim 2.6p per share on 2 December as reward for my patience.

Cheers Danny, please forgive the arrogance of this follow-up, directed at Marshall Wace LLP :-) In spite of paper loss on position here you have multiple expertise amongst the 17 current partners (if not amongst all the 12 resigned!), algos which balance risk and reward in a dangerous area of 41 shorts, all thanks to clients' money with economic power 100+ times mine. All I can do I assure you of the truth as simply a long-retired WC1 analyst six years older than any of you, with contacts, defending substantial own long investment, ie unimportant nuisance in some judgements.

Nothing new to report this morning, and you don't read such stuff anyway, just a reality check of what you knew from day one, that for MW ITV @ 0.61% short (perhaps now higher) you have unlimited upside risk to your clients' AUM, IMO if you get this one wrong all those carefully chipped-away "in the money" earnings past and present from MTRO, TCG, CNA, AA, PSON, CPI, HL., CYBG etc could be reversed in 30 seconds of your unwanted upside for ITV, your Sword of Damocles. ITV is an improving £5bn company with excellent professionally-managed debt profile also now. Since you will be coy with your clients seeing their statements in this event I may not be within social media, this freedom of expression is horrible isn't it?

ITV doesn't equate with this list above, a simple parallel is with NXT, also successful with most sales in the UK and shorted - rather unsuccessfully for those who delayed close available for some time in the £40s. Just because ITV M&A has been chatter for years doesn't mean it's not going to happen, the present GBP rates could perhaps only be around for a few weeks.

There can also be surprise upsides internally from the management or BlackRock who are buying above the current level and are fully aware of the ITV hidden gems highlighted here, and others no doubt, any of which could simply ensure that Marshall Wace is underwater on this one for ever until exit premium. I have no material not in the public domain.

Possible short-seller attack again today attempting to demoralise, possibly from sole public vulture fund Marshall Wace again who are going it alone with "double or quits" ignoring their underwater public postion, sad to report that they've ignored the positives here and gone for 0.11% increased short on stock they do not own last Thursday, to 0.61%. I will revise my paper loss figures for MW accordingly. I knew that they would accept our logic here or use 0.5% debut as a springboard for some Brexit investment strategy that only they follow alone.

The good news is that we're all now aware for the weakness reason and some large investors are taking up the "cheap" stock quite nicely, it only needs BlackRock USA to do so again and my time on this posting will be repaid 100 times over, I hate mentioning negatives but it's best that you know your enemy and know that it's nothing that ITV has done or can control.

Thanks again for the mature discussion and lesser-known aspects revealed on this bulletin board, essential with a PLC like ITV with such diverse aspects. Anyway, the suspect short-sales causing the lurch downwards are below:
08-Oct-19 08:43:45 120.60 10,727 Sell* 120.55 120.65 12.94k O
08-Oct-19 08:43:32 120.55 8 Sell* 120.55 120.65 9.64 O
08-Oct-19 08:43:17 120.55 1,500 Sell* 120.50 120.65 1,808 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:17 120.55 2,500 Sell* 120.50 120.65 3,014 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:13 120.60 900 Sell* 120.55 120.65 1,085 O
08-Oct-19 08:43:14 120.60 5,500 Sell* 120.60 120.65 6,633 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:10 120.55 2,500 Sell* 120.55 120.75 3,014 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 1,950 Sell* 120.60 120.85 2,352 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 1,214 Sell* 120.60 120.85 1,464 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 742 Sell* 120.60 120.85 894.85 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 1,912 Sell* 120.60 120.85 2,306 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 2,500 Sell* 120.60 120.85 3,015 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 2,432 Sell* 120.60 120.85 2,933 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.60 68 Sell* 120.60 120.85 82.01 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.70 1,511 Sell* 120.70 120.85 1,824 A
08-Oct-19 08:43:09 120.70 848 Sell* 120.70 120.85 1,024 A
08-Oct-19 08:42:59 120.75 1,400 Sell* 120.70 120.85 1,691 A

Indeed, interesting more detailed report now available:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-apple-iphone/apple-raises-production-of-iphone-11-models-by-about-10-nikkei-idUKKBN1WJ0H9

Hello smalltrader, unless anyone else suggests an alternative interpretation or calculation, Blackrock (USA version) increased their effective holding on Tuesday by +0.23% or around +9.26 million shares to achieve 6.03% long.

But not as you or I would tackle it, normal shareholding at registrar was reduced by 0.14% and effective increased holding of 0.36% held via derivatives etc, called financial instruments on the form. They are specified more exactly as ADR (American Depositary Receipts), Securities Lending, and familiar cash CFD (Contracts for Difference). The trivial variations relate to rounding of the figures. Hope this helps.

680 coming through on the main AIM exchange this time is yours truly up to 11837 0.363%, dipping back in with spare bank current account cash prior to any lunchtime demand. Good logic in some recent posts, and my own musings helped me decide without working against me. Love my new (4th) broker mentioned recently with hint only and the £5 permanent trades, which help minimise costs at this trading level. (More in dividend funds is temporarily frozen elsewhere). Unlike some tales of woe elsewhere, here's to Q3.....

Top of the class for arithmetic Mr J, but the puzzling heading earlier may lead astray. The warrants are on my older postings but rechecked this morning:
1p warrants of any sort - none
£1.50 warrants (0.3p old money @ 500 to 1) - older and expired
£1.00 warrants (0.2p old money) current to about May 2021 (source RNS of 15 May)
If anyone thinks otherwise please tell us :-)

Funds raised on exercise would be £1.874m, so we're probably talking about a new strategic investor here who shares many of the views here, and is happy with higher market capitalisation. Personally I think the growing earnings can stand that, particularly in 2021; if cash at BRD rises well and sp growth doesn't follow they could also be bought out for cancellation by the Board.

NIce dilemma to have particularly for an AIM company, and one I took into account when making my recent purchase on the NEX market, because already in the present price IMO. As with credit card cash for us, need it and you'll pay something ridiculous like 19.95%, don't need it and the offers roll in, I'm sure I saw 18 or 21 months for 2%.

Bit of cheer on this miserable day on the markets, Marshall Wace as shorter and anyone in certain countries west of here with very large chequebook must be thrilled of course:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1k-invest-d-buy-5-121011547.html

Unusually for me, gut feeling rather than anything firm as the shorters and short-termers get their boots out again, but the easy cliché of "jam tomorrow" really needs to be challenged, even though it's easy to reach for when unpredictable random personalities west of Wales issue random edicts affecting hundreds of millions, based on own thoughts for the day or month.

Going beyond this, and any quality company has to have the stamina and supporters to do so, it seems that we are OK but not brilliant in the UK at backing tech winners and thus IQE, there are funds and private equity willing to support and profit from the best ideas. IQE is a good example of the minority whose success exceeded all expectations, even with the textbook past directors' selling with surprise riches, as part of diversification and strong institutional demand.

The UK is also good at backing companies with first-class global product, scale, barriers to entry, margins, contracts, USPs and cash flow. I'm really of course thinking about ARM Holdings prior to its £24bn takeover by Softbank in 2016, though amazingly one shorter Maverick Capital @ 1.21% never read the signs, probably just as well that they stick now with two retailers and one property short :-)

Anyway, I digress, the bit where Brits and their institutions are impatient IMO is the hard work in the middle where even the best entrepreneurs often stumble, getting from paragraph two to paragraph three, overdone euphoria is replaced by overdone pessimism as soon as inevitable hurdles are encountered. I've even seen graphs of this but in mining context. The Americans - and possibly the Canadians and Israelis - are far better and more patient getting their unicorns into major global players, and buying up any significant competition. I've even seen adverse comment - not here - about the cash balance going down and P/E being high for UK. Hang on, earnings of any kind at this stage are nice and do the writers expect top quality volume production expansion in this post-development stage to be done on the cheap? Can I politely remind these writers what the funding was for?

Transparency: medium private investor via SIPP. Unaware of any information not in public domain.

Thanks mick-b, the more facts on hand the better. I haven't been in anywhere similar to this area for 23 years so unless you have that level of expertise we need someone with the next level of knowledge and subtlety to know:

1. Which ones don't compete at all, ie have different niches and markets that don't coincide, within same area of course;
2. Which ones if any are poor quality patent infringers that no mainstream OEM would consider;
3. Which are complementary or allies - just going from my own time in industry and commerce here;
4. Which are aggressive competitors and if any have rising quality or value approaching that of IQE.

These are all things where the analysts theoretically have the time and knowledge to get things right rather than trotting out clichés, and even the shorters if they go beyond price and volume trends and computer algos. These factors may account for the divergences seen between today's share price and some target figures, even allowing for the worst geopolitical scene globally I can remember as mature adult.

These are the statistics that even on an economically miserable day like today that the shorters (or their computer algos) both fear and try to take advantage of:

9 years - pre January 2010 & Adam Crozier appointment - price often horrible, company in much worse state!
5 years -37.92%
3 years -31.64%
2 years -27.76%
1 year -20.35%
6 months -5.26%
3 months +14.68%
1 month +8.84%
1 week -0.16%
(Total return including dividends would of course be much better for all the figures 6 months & older)

My own medium PI holding straddles both the negative and positive times, the big purchase (for me) was 14 months ago and the smaller top-up in profit was within that awful Christmas period of 2018. Happy to hold and collect the dividend on 2 December and hopefully many more to come, anything surprise upside is nice but not essential.