Member Info for Aimtrader1

Agree with the comments. DM is HUGELY impressive and there isn't anyone better placed at leading us through to discovery. I completely disagree with some of the comments on here recently about him personally (and I was holding through the big drop). You can see the frustration on his face in recent interviews. He knows it's there and it really is only a matter of time. 10p/20p/30p all a bit irrelevant if we land a major commercial discovery as the SP will be in £'s. A market cap of £2-3b not unrealistic in future here which could be c.40x from here. Let's wait and see.

Surprised so many are tipping up 6p entry points. You might be right but feels very firm at c.8p as a floor to me. The only way I can see that price coming is if 1) the next news states the project is on hold until next year or 2) we get no news. Both feel unlikely given managements eagerness to move this on at pace. More likely scenario is holding around current levels until news comes (soon I'd guess) and then a leg up from there as excitement builds again.

Feels very attractive at this price. With a 50m market cap we're pricing in a 0.1% (1 in 1000) chance they've got the 50b resource they believe (appreciate the math not quite as simple as that as big exploration/production costs). Hopefully we'll see a RNS very soon (pre the monthly newsletter) outlining plans for a winter drilling campaign of the shallow targets. The house broker was suggesting 10-20 of these initially which would help to prove up the resource before they ask for more money to target the deeper targets with a new rig next year.

tintook is right. They're currently testing the shallower levels that they missed on the way down. A discovery shouldn't be ruled out (although is quite low probability). This will be why we haven't yet heard from them on next steps as this testing will help inform the plan. This is the biggest no brainer of a trade I've seen for a while.

Very low risk entry point. If they announce they've managed to flow helium to surface from the shallower parts of Tai they're testing right now then you'd be looking at 2/3x from here without question. If they don't announce that and simply announce a future drilling plan then I can't see much downside. Feels like a free hit which most are overlooking.

The price isn't moving up because we have a big seller offloading. It's as simple as that. If this wasn't the case then wouldn't have been surprised to see this +15-20% today. The news today / the increased volume will accelerate the speed of the sale so all good.

Wyndrum - are you suggesting that a big RNS with (as anexample) the start date for drilling won't move the SP as it's already known/expected? Would you like a side wager?

I'm not in but reckon this is probably a buy at these prices. Almost certainly you'll see a rise into the AGM in anticipation of a trading update. You'd expect year to date perf to be strong. It's so illiquid though which makes it difficult to trade.

I'm getting much closer to pulling the trigger on this one. Does anyone have a view on how price sensitive the customer is? Is increasing pricing potentially part of the plan to get to profitability in H2 2022? It's worked for Purple Innovation over in the states who've increased prices to maybe 30-40% above the likes of Casper and Nectar. They're now profitable and valued at $2.3b.
D-Geeman - I noticed you're also on the HE1 discussion? I happen to think this will end up being one of the biggest success stories in recent years and am there for the long term.

Nope. You'd notice it if I moved.
CC v impressive isn't she?

Thanks Nebel. Good interview.

Nebel - you have become the biggest ramper on here. I feel sorry for the newbies reading your updates/blog posts.

Possibly D-Geeman. But new investors should be aware of just how risky this is. To hear people talking about an SP of 10p, 25p, 80p - it's just ridiculous. You seem almost certain that they'll make it (without running out of cash) but I haven't heard you mention how you think this is going to happen? What do sales need to increase by (at current margins) to get to breakeven? I think it's a bigger uplift than you think and with the headwinds of retail reopening / people spending less on the home and more on experience (post Covid) is it really possible? The house broker is estimating that cash will drop to 4-5m this year. I know you have 100% belief but time really is running out here. They cannot go back to investors for more cash. It's not a realistic option and 8m doesn't last that long.

Its so rampy here - I feel sorry for the newbies

It will be a big manufacturer that will end up buying the bed in a box firms. A tie up between bed in a box firms wont work. Margins will be improved but not by anywhere near enough.

D-Geeman - I think you'll find I said I might take a 'punt' if the price drops back to cash levels. Reason for this - I think we'll see consolidation within the 'bed in a box' space. Sorry - 'sleep wellness' space ;) Genuinely that is the only way out for Eve.

Yes - of the two you'd sooner be invested in Eve. Casper are focusing on growth at all cost and that will end badly. Eve will likely end up in the same place but it will likely take a bit longer. I just can't see how they move to profitably from here especially with the High St reopening. Cheryl C and Tim P had a slide on the 'path to profitably' plan in the recent presentation but it was far from convincing.

Feels like people are ramping to try convince themselves here.

Casper are loss making - approx $90m last year. Haven't looked in detail but from memory I think they held cash of c.$60-70m of cash (poor investors). The market cap is 20-25x Eve at around £300m. Pre IPO it was valued in excess of £1b but has tanked every since. Similar model to Eve but also with physical stores. Revenue is approx $500m per annum so a very different size to Eve. In my view, Casper will be the first high profile casualty from the bed in a box startups. Like Eve they're predicting profitability at some point soon but no real obvious path to how this will be achieved.

Fiscal - If you think revenue grew by 80% last year then I'm guessing it's you that hasn't read the financial results. Keep up please!