Member Info for Aimtrader1

Yup - makes perfect sense to re-drill a duster a cost of c.$3m........ Bless poor Muscles and his short > I wouldn't want to be on that side of this trade. v dangerous / expensive.

Shallow drilling campaign starting in q1 Persian. Likely raise after a discovery and pre the deep drilling campaign starting q3. DM said in the investor presentation could be June start of the deep drills best case.

Yeah agree. Looks like it's found the floor now and getting ready to build from here. Results of the 2D/confirmation on the conventional rig will help the SP a bit but short term the big catalyst is likely to be the start of the shallow drilling campaign. The house broker mentions 10-20 shallow drills at c.$100k each. If they RNS this with a plan to start early in 2022 then you'll likely see a 50%+ SP day. I know the prize isn't significant in the shallows but a discovery will obviously help to de-risk the project still further.

All the best ITV - look after yourself and see you next year

Yeah agree with that. This is all about showing the market that they're cracking on / it keeps the project in peoples minds. I wouldn't be surprised to see an RNS every 2-3 weeks during the winter to update on progress. I think that would be sensible and prevent the SP from sliding. I suspect the big SP catalyst near term will be when they announce details of the shallow drilling campaign. I think that will get people excited particularly if drilling will start early in 2022.

Being taken private. I wonder if Eve will end up the same way?

Not sure why some people get so concerned about raising extra cash. It's inevitable with an exploration stock - we'll need £10's perhaps even into the £100's of million to get this into production. It's not if we raise but when. Agree its not relevant for now but absolutely will be in 2022. But why worry about that? At the point we go into production the total cash raised will be a tiny % of the market cap.

Hi Fly.
Not saying the below will happen it's just my best guess. Could be totally wrong and happy to concede that.
re funds - no question we'll need more cash to complete a meaningful deep drilling campaign with multiple wells. We're financed for the geophysical work, the shallow drilling and probably for 1x deep drill but certainly no more. DM has mentioned that they might bring in additional funds as a buffer or if the seismic identifies more targets and that will almost certainly be the case. I think the question is timing of the raise and whether we'll be involved. I suspect it will be an ii at above the current SP.

What's everyone's view on upcoming RNS newsflow? My best guess below. Be good to know what you all think.
Dec - Completion of 2d Seismic / identification of 'must drill' deep targets for 2022
Dec - Start of ERT survey to help identify shallow targets
Jan - Appointment of contractor for the deep drilling campaign
Jan - Private placement (ii) with proceeds used to fully fund the 2022 campaign/move to appraisal
Feb - Completion of ERT survey and identification of shallow targets
Mar - Appointment of contractor for shallow drilling campaign
April - Start of shallow drilling campaign
May - Shallow drilling update
June - Shallow drilling final results
July - Start of deep drilling campaign

Yes Wyn agree - I couldn't resist so have come back in for the ride. I do expect it to be a bit slow for a while but as we know when this move it moves fast so lets see.

You certainly play both sides of the coin (dependent on position). Filtered.

Yup sure. The SP could 10-15x on a commercial find but we're 9-12 months away. In the short term there are not any major catalysts here. We'll see some movement I'd think but nothing huge. In the short term I think there are therefore better opportunities. Clear?

You keep the predictions coming Quantum - its entertaining if nothing else

Even if c.30% is accurate I think that makes the current price ridiculously cheap. SP on a commercial find could be 10-15x from here. And with odds of (c30%) or 3x that makes a v attractive risk:reward. I actually think 30% is too low given what is now known. So even more attractive. I'm out for now as short term have better opportunities but will 100% be back in here at a later date.

Today's price will be 'cheap' ? You mean expensive? And not sure we can really define Tai as a duster. They're v likely going to re-drill it which tells you something.

Can't keep up with Quantum's price predictions. 4.75p and lower. Now a +37% rerate to 6.5p just 1 week later. lol.

do you think he'll RNS the start of the seismic? If so (assuming they're on track as per the plan) this needs to be soon if aiming to complete ahead of the rainy reason. I suspect the results will determine the contract with the drilling contractor (how many drills) so doubt they'll reach an agreement until after those results have been processed (back end of 21??).

Current cash burn c.£100k per month. The team largely incentivised by options which keeps costs low. I'm now out (slightly too long term for me) but I think this is a v attractive price for those with patience. The fact they'll be going back to drill Tai is really encouraging. It really gives confidence that the only reason this failed was because they had the wrong drill.

Thought DM came across really well and still clearly has firm belief in the project. Good to hear he's considering going back into Tai. Not sure he really believes there is much mileage in the shallow drills. But.......makes sense to evaluate whilst they're waiting for the new drill to arrive on site. He's hopeful it could arrive in June but if I was betting man I'd guess will be later if they've not agreed terms with anyone yet. Realistically this is 9-12 months before we could get news of a discovery. For those with patience I think it will work out great. Slightly too long term for me but will come back at some point Best of luck all - particularly ITV.

We were guided to April for the larger rig to be on site (by the house broker). That's why it's a surprise skittish. Where exactly has DM guided to later than April for the deep drilling to start? He hasn't.