Member Info for Aimster

I think CP means 2 targets from the same drill. Not CH-1b.

2016 - NT2 Drill RNS with AEX as the OPERATOR

23 Sept - Rig contractor signed off for NT-2 drill

18 Oct - Civil works for NT-2 well site complete and mobilising Caroil 2 rig. Spud late Q4, drill expected to take between 45-60 days

5 Dec - Caroil 2 rig independently inspected.

19 Dec - Caroil 2 rig formally accepted by company. Spud is expected next few days.

21 Dec - Spudding NT-2

9 Jan - Drill status & schedule update.

6 Feb - NT-2 results : 51m gas

27 Feb - Further update and Flow testing to commence

24 April - Flow test results : Flow rate 17 mmcf/d on 40/64 choke

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2022 - CH-1 drill with ARA as Operator.

Sept - Spud still on schedule for November
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EVERY RNS informing of further progress will give the SP a boost and reduces the amount of speculation.

KirSin … Yes that’s what I meant. It didn’t help after a few beers and the wife talking to me while I was typing.

Jacktrade … if you do a little more research you will find that the TPDC are looking for investors to build the pipeline. All they are doing at the moment is finding out what it will cost to buy the land from owners over the route of the pipeline.

Also like Rellik, who has been here for years, I’m still a little concerned that the location of the drill pad has not been confirmed and also the drill contractor. A new drill pad can take upto 10 weeks to construct (ref NT2)

The initial target flow rate is 60 mcf/d which could be achieved by a reworked NT-2. IMO after CH-1, ARA will not drill again until the end of 2022 or early 2023. Why? Because they will want the GSA signed off before they spend any more cash. When the results of CH-1 have been incorporated into the Seismic model , a new CPR will be generated to support development and investment into the new pipeline.

I’m hoping with the Final Results due next week that he clarifies the real cost to us for the Serenity appraisal drill due to government tax relief. We may even get a free carry with Serenity with around 1000 bopd. (Assumes 50% to Repsol & EOG 12.5%)

Final results should be available some time next week I believe. Perhaps we may get an SP boost if the outlook and financials look good.

“It mentions the recent conclusion of a seismic study of Ntolya on 10 th October showing the possibility of 1.6 trillion cubic feet of gas. Does this mean us?”
There’s a problem here due to lack comms from AEX. As AEX is not the operator, we have to rely on information from ARA, who are not a public company and under no pressure to release information.
We have a RNS that confirms CH-1 spud in November BUT we have NO confirmation of CH-1 location from 3D Seismic or rig mobilisation or even rig contractor. What we do have is speculation galore from snippets of press media, like the boss of TPDC stating Ch-1 spud is in early Q1 2023 or like the one above stating 3D Seismic analysis is concluded. I’m sure a lot is due to mid translation, but we need more commentary from the horse’s mouth.(Charles that means you)

There was a similar announcement 3-4 years ago with regards to The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) ie pumping oil from Uganda to Tanzania. I’m not sure how many false dawns that’s had. Can anyone tell me if they have started construction yet?

PIs selling at this price are being robbed. I’m at a lose why it’s not bouncing. The SP should be above 2p without Serenity.

Even though my expectations are slightly lower than some, IMO this is probably the safest o&g penny share investment currently out there at this price point.

Edgar … November 2022

Jack trade … you don’t have to believe me. Go back and check all the RNSs and the SP graph like I did. NT-2 was initially a disappointment due to the low flow rate on a small choke. They had problems containing the pressure, which is why NT-3 never happened. NT-2 can be reworked to increase the flow rate by a factor of 4 IMO.

On another point it took 20 days for the SP to peak at 7p from initial NT-2 results. That was because of anticipation of NT-3!!!
When CH-1 results are released it’ll probably peak within a couple of days because there will be no immediate news flow after.

ARA will have enough gas with NT-2 and CH-1 to meet market requirements over a couple of years from 2024. ARA will want the GSA agreement signed off before they drill any more holes. CH-1 and 3D Seismic will be enough for a new CPR. I expect CH-2 to drilled in 2024 or late 2023.

RNS lead up to NT2 Drill

18 Oct - Mobilising Caroil 2 rig 1.8p
5 Dec - Caroil 2 rig inspection 2p
21 Dec - Spud 2.2p
Each RNS triggered a slight increase in the SP.
Charles needs realise we need more comms.
There were also a couple of RNS before the RNS detailing NT2 drill results on 6 Feb. The SP peaked at 7p on 27 Feb. I don’t think we will go above 4p this time, even with oil. Hope I’m wrong.
Last time we had back-to-back drills. Remember NT-3 that never happened. So if investors got ‘spiked’ on NT-2 there was always NT-3 to offload a few shares. Instead a lot of LTHs held onto the shares as the price demised over the following years waiting and waiting for NT-3 (now CH-1)
Also the other reason the SP got to 7p was Tiptop! Remember him. A master ramper (in nice way). He bailed out when the farmout was announced at 3.5p I believe. CrustyPete was a lot more optimistic in his dialogue in those days and a well respected poster, and still is a respected poster today. Like Pete, I tend to be more pragmatic towards AEX theses days.
Why this post? I’m still waiting for verification of CH-1 location and Rig info prior to spudding.

Oil in East Africa. For newbies here’s a link to Mike Rego’s presentation courtesy of drewky.
https://aminexunofficial.blogspot.com/2017/11/mike-rego-finding-east-southern-african.html?m=1

Edgar …. Which RNS details the CPR that states we have 8TCF. Is that 1C, 2C, 3C, 1P, 2P or 3P and what percentage is recoverable?

Edgar .. you hit the nail on the head “exporting gas”. That’s what I’m waiting for, some news on where the customers are coming from. At the moment Wentworth are meeting current demands. It’s no good having mega TCFs in the ground with hardly any customers. A little bit like the chicken and egg. You need to demonstrate how much gas you have in the ground with associated flow rates to trigger investment in country. Even though I’ve been invested since NT2, I’m a little tired of PIs misleading investors. Everything else about AEX is fantastic, free carry to production and probably in 5 years time it will be mega! If Kiliwani comes back online, that will be a bonus. Don’t anyone come back and give me predicted daily flow rates, I know what they are. Tell me where the customers are coming from to use those flow rates. A fertiliser factory, a cement factory, etc. and have they been built yet?