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Jacktrade .. at the moment I haven’t got a clue. With AEX it’s just delay after delay.
We need a flow of info to know we are on track for March. We need CH-1 confirmation, rig contractor info, rig mobilisation but I suspect non of this will come until the new year.
On a positive note, IMO if we get the news flow above, the SP will be in a better position a month before spud, than it was a week ago.

Well Tanzania… with AEX let’s take one thing at a time. The next hurdle is if CH-1 location changes. It can take upto 10 weeks to construct a well pad (ref NT2). Apparently requires 4 weeks for the concrete to fully dry out. IMO they will not start to construct until after the rainy season. Work it out.

In the cold light of day …. Does anyone really believe first gas early 2024? Over 6 years, yes, 6 years between drills! Ffs

How long to physically build the pipeline? 3-4 months? 6 months max. ?
TPDC are busy now sorting out land ownership and settlement requirements. But to be clear TPDC may be constructing the pipeline but they are NOT paying for it. They are after investors to pay for the pipeline construction.
And this is where there MAY be a delay to gas production. I say may be a delay and that’s because I can see only one investor at this point to pay for the pipeline and that’s ARA.
It’s gone from AEX pushing the Tanz Gov. for progress a few years ago to now where the Tanz Gov (TPDC) are pushing ARA for progress because they need the gas to speed in country investment into businesses which requires gas/electricity.
IMO ARA will use this as a negotiating tool for the GSA. Hopefully the GSA will be completed in H1. Even if ARA pay for the pipeline they still need a CPR to bring investment into the country. Ie No new cement or fertiliser factory will be built until they know that they have at least a 20 year supply of gas.
I’ve always stated that I didn’t expect anymore drills after CH-1 until production. The $140m investment IMO was to soften the farmout for AEX investors and also scare off Scirocco in funding their 25% share of development.

ICB …TPDC knew over a month ago that the spud was delayed.

The boss of TPDC told us the spud would be early 2023 over a month ago. So It seems TPDC are more in the know than AEX. How will and when will AEX get told about CH-1 drill results?
At least Rojo will be a happy poster when he wakes up.

Totally predictable. Like I said on a number of occasions there was no news on the rig prior to spud!!! Different operator, same delays. This lot couldn’t organise a p@ss up in a brewery.
If anyone believes first gas now will be Early 2024 needs their head looking at. CH-1 in March ffs, then update the model from CH-1 results, then generate a new CPR for investment into building the pipeline. Prior to physically start building the pipeline they need a revised CPR.

Anybody remember ANGLO AFRICAN OIL & GAS?
There was a poster on there called Tiptop who posted in a similar style to GRH. In fact I thought they were the same but Tiptop was mid forties while GRH is in his sixties I believe. Tiptop presented AAOG in the same style as GRH with PRD. All good intentions and truly believed in their posts. Knowledgeable, educated never responded to derampers with any malice and well respected. The main 2 guys running AAOG were respected in the industry prior to AAOG. While waiting for the Spud it’s worth doing a little research on AAOG to look for the warning signs. Most the posters on AAOG were expecting to be millionaires. One red flag here was Lonny selling shares before the placing.

Hi Discipline… I posting facts not fiction, like some here. I intend to wait until mou-2 initial results and then decide to buy more before flow test results, which IMO will be good (very high)

Hi Discipline…. EOG just drilled Serenity, an Appraisal well with a greater than 50% Commercial CoS. It was a duster. People need to know the risks here.
I’m here on a free carry from buying in 6.5-6.8p after the placing and selling 80% in the high 8s.

In the latest September presentation it states Mou-2 25% Commercial CoS for Gas-to-Power, higher for CNG.

Let me clarify once again. I stated a £350m MC is 3-4 years away and that will be after they connect the gas to the main pipeline. I never stated CNG is 3-4 years away. CNG will probably be the backend of next year if Mou-2 is commercial. I expect flow rates to be high.

Footandmouth … “why am I here?” To make money like everyone else, but I object to over speculation. Newbies looking in will get pulled in with dreams of Ferraris and villas and worst of all, investors putting Pensions at risk. There are some excellent posters on here. Let’s please not over speculate. If you are experienced with O&G penny stocks, you know the risks and most newbies will lose money. Anyone here that states they will not sell until dividends, is full of sh@t. Ramping nonsense speculation is almost like grooming newbie investors to invest more than they can afford.

Footandmouth …. You live in a fantasy world. There were no takers to farmout Mou-2, so PRD had to have a placing and forced to go the LOW impact CNG route, rather than main pipeline, which is tantalisingly close by. Selling gas to stranded industries will never get you to a mid-cap. So IMO any offer will be small ball.
Look at Aminex, loads of TCFs of gas, sold for $40m. As far as the oil is concerned, where is the nearest Oil refinery? I can’t even be bothered to look.

Look at I3E knocking out 20,000 bopd with a MC of £290m. That’s the reality.

I stated a £350m MC is 3-4 years away ie £1/share NOT CNG development. Trucking CNG is small scale 5-20 mcf/day, compared to feeding directly into national pipeline. Also trucking Oil, 5-6 tankers a day, so say 1000 bopd, it’s not mega money, even if you double that.
In REALITY It’s not about how much gas or oil is in the ground, it’s about how fast you can get it out and actually sell it, which will dictate annual revenue and hopefully large profits.

Talking about only fools & horses , I hope Mou-2 doesn’t turn out like the Chandelier sketch!

£1 per share is a £350m market Capitalisation lol. Probably 3-4 years away with successful development. At moment just 2 guys running the show Delboy and Rodney (sorry Paul & Lonny)

This is pure speculation from me but it is how my mind is thinking right now.
The original Mou-2 location which I assume was the optimal location has been moved to a different location for whatever reason. Probably to do with Permit approvals. So now the CoS for Mou-2 has been reduced and just in case Mou-2 is considered to be non-commercial, let’s bring Mou-3 forward with an oil play to keep some momentum in the SP.
Until PG clarifies the situation this is how I feel and will invest accordingly.

More important than the new location is the technical reason for the change in Mou-2. At the moment I’m inclined to believe Paul & Lonny having a few beers together and decided to play pin the the Tail on the Donkey.