Member Info for Aimster

If news is next Wednesday 1st March, as well as the revised drill timescales we may get confirmation of CH-1 location but IMO no definite news of any rig contractor. We may get a comment on “ARA in discussions with drill contractor”.
If the RNS is on Friday 3rd, IMO it will be just be the revised drill timescale, which should be taken as a pinch of salt.
ARA need to get the SCIR deal done and dusted before any real progress is made. I still believe ARA will be involved in funding the pipeline construction as part of the GSA.
Anyone that thinks construction of the pipeline is underway and the TPDC are going to fork out $30m by themselves based on 2 wells that need work overs, need to stop taking their happy pills. (I think NT2 flow rate is currently around 15 mmcf/d although Neil Ritson believes it could be reworked to around 60mmcf/d)

Roger … the pipeline may be approved and costed and possibly landowners compensated but the pipeline will not be constructed until an investor comes forward, and before an investor comes forward a new CPR needs to be generated based on the results of the 3D Seismics and Ch-1 drill. The CPR will also trigger investment from international manufacturing companies looking to utilise the gas over the next 20+ years. At the moment though, everything is in a sorry state. The positive sentiment will eventually evaporate from AEX unless we get regular positive newsflow. AEX will become the new Wentworth with about 20 trades a week.

Hey Everypenny …. I think you missed Pi in your equation or was it Pie in the Sky that you missed. TCFs of gas in the ground but NT1 was in 2012, NT2 in 2016, will NT3/CH1 be in 2023? And where are the customers coming from when they eventually drill and construct the pipeline. I’ve been hearing Tanzania is desperate for gas by the rose tinted posters for the last 6 years lol
What’s happened to the SCIR deal? Last time I checked it has cleared stage 1 of 4? Nothing will get drilled until that is approved.
Anyway I’m expecting some sort of update next Wed 1st March.

Haggis … I would like to think that I offer a balanced view to yours. The positive media posts are nothing new. Leaflessclover was a champion of positive media posts 4-5 years ago. “Tanzania needs more gas-to-power, etc. etc” but what’s happened over the last 4-5 years. Oh I forgot, a new regime pro to investors etc etc. but what real progress has been made. What’s happened to the Scirocco deal? The ARA farmout took 2 years to complete!!!!
The pipeline construction has NOT been financed. Read the media posts correctly. I’ve always stated it makes sense for ARA to pay for the pipeline construction.
I see Haggis is still posting CH-1 is still on schedule for March spud date, lol. Also anyone that really believes first gas Q1 2024, when we have not even drilled CH-1 yet or clarified the flow rates from NT-1 or NT-2, well each to their own. Yes Haggis, a negative slant based on experience of Aminex and Tanzania.
On a final point for any new Aminex investors, the only poster that I would recommend that you take note of their posts, is CrustyPete
I hope for everyone’s sake we soon get a bumper RNS clarifying all the unknowns, CH-1 location, Rig contractor and timeline and even details of the construction of the pipeline. Good luck everyone and DYOR.

Here’s a short story for Saturday morning reading. I first stumbled on Aminex on the backend of the NT1 drill at the beginning of 2017 waiting for the anticipated back-to-back NT3 drill that never happened. The SP slowly but surely drifted down month by month. As SP drifted down there was a poster called Apache whose sarcastic negative posts used to really wind me up. But in contrast there was another poster called Tiptop who was a master of posting positivity. I held the course even though my gut was telling me the MC was way to high. I lost a few quid in the process. I wished I had listened to Apache.
Apache was banned and then reincarnated as RoJo some weeks later. How did we know RoJo was Apache? Because of the same flirtatious posting style with Gazfemme, which with lack of news from Aminex seems to have basically killed that off.
Anyway what I find amusing is how RoJo winds some of the newer posters up, just like Apache used to wind me up a few years ago.
Hey Tanzania, you should know better than to bite.

Well guys hope we get some news in the next few weeks. If we get to 1st March RNS before any other news, we know what that RNS will state. Similar to the one on 1st November last year.
From a previous post:
“ Makamba said the government's commitment is to see the project completed within 12 months and said he does not expect to hear the project delayed due to funding"
My take on this is the chief is telling his subordinates to go and get some investment to pay for the pipeline construction.
I just can’t see the Tanz gov spending $30m to build a pipeline by themselves. Also compensation Agreed but not paid for the land owners.
Good news that the Uganda Oil pipeline is making some progress though.
Oh jollyroger, the Kenya gas pipeline is too far in it’s infancy (1 year) to be taken seriously.

Well I hope there is finally some progress. If they have planned the construction of the pipeline perhaps they know the final location of CH-1, just a pity we don’t.
What’s the latest on the old flavour of the day ie the LNG plant? Or the Uganda Oil pipeline? I haven’t checked for a while. When these 2 projects start making progress then I know the Tanz gov are serious about developing the country. Until then any Tanz gov media statements are just lip service.

A referenced article posted by Haggis sometime last year had a quote from the Tan gov stating that they were looking for investment to pay for construction of the pipeline. It was in the same article where the head of TPDC stated that CH-1 drill would be in early 2023, when we were officially still led to believe the November drill was still on schedule.

The pipeline maybe planned, approved and compensation agreed but the most important fact not mentioned here is that the Tan gov are looking for investors to pay for the construction lol

Like I stated this morning I can’t believe how naive some investors are. Falling for non informative scaremongering.

All that’ll happened is an unexpected mud issue for this geology which will be resolved.

Still no confirmation of CH-1 location after 3D Seismic analysis or Rig contractor

2016 - NT2 Drill RNS with AEX as the OPERATOR

1 Aug - Civil work for the Ntorya-2 appraisal well has commenced and it is expected that the well pad will be completed within 10 weeks.

23 Sept - Rig contractor signed off for NT-2 drill

18 Oct - Civil works for NT-2 well site complete and mobilising Caroil 2 rig. Spud late Q4, drill expected to take between 45-60 days

5 Dec - Caroil 2 rig independently inspected.

19 Dec - Caroil 2 rig formally accepted by company. Spud is expected next few days.

21 Dec - Spudding NT-2

Hey Tanzania … I don’t need my thermals in Lanzarote. Renting not far from where Irishmouse frequents. Remember him. Tiptop’s sidekick.
FYI I had Crunchy nut cornflakes for breakfast and just finishing my second Dorada (I’m a lightweight).

Max Power … I’m here because I know the share pretty well now. Sold all my shares during October some at 1.3p because of lack of drill information. Bought back in after the November Spud delay RNS below 1p. ( I think you posted it would not go below 1p). Anyway I sold a few more around 1.2p a few weeks ago.
As we move into January, if the SP creeps up with no indication of a Rig contractor. I’ll probably sell a few more.

Haggis … the only misinformation that I posted is that it’s 6 years since NT2 not 5 years (Dec 2016).
Tanzania may have a new President but it will take years for the corrupt political culture to change, where currently it’s a minefield to navigate progress for any law abiding company not willing to distribute a stack of brown paper envelopes to key persons in the approval process. IMHO of course. DYOR.
CH-1 drill will happen, the pipeline will happen. The main concern is that investors sentiment for AEX which was high and generating a lot of fluidity in trading, may dwindle due to investors running out of patience due to lack of progress. Anyway let’s see what happens in the new year.

The only REAL progress over the last 5 years since NT2 drill is:-
1. 50% farmout of license
2. Completed 3D Seismic acquisition (no results yet)
Anything else is lip service speculation.

Hardnose …”Why does the share price/mcap continuously underperform then?”

Because of delay after delay after delay. It’s over a DECADE since the discovery was made with NT1 !!! It took 2 years to complete the farmout deal and now the March drill spud is starting to look doubtful if we do not hear any news shortly with regards to CH-1 drill location OR actual drilling contract.
Posters will come back at me with “First Gas in Q1 2024”. We’ve all witnessed the government’s hot air over the years. What happened to the Uganda Oil pipeline or the never ending LNG story. That’s why the SP is under performing.

Next is RNS with Rig Contract signed and a confirmed Spud date. The equity raise will come in the run up to the spud. So IMO around 10p.

There is absolutely no way DM will RNS a cash raise until we have the Drill contract signed and a firm date for the Spud.
FOMO will kick in as we approach the spud date and that is when the RNS cash raise for a multi drill program will appear. IMO probably around 10p.

NOBODY is stating that the deal will fail. I’m 99% sure the deal will go through. The issue is whether ARA will drill CH-1 until the deal is finalised. A scenario: What if results from the drill combined with seismic results triple gas resources and also prove an oil discovery. It could trigger a Scirocco takeover if the deal is not finalised. Highly unlikely but still a risk.