Member Info for AIMOilking

I am afraid to imagine a situation where data centres get priority over turning the lights on in your home.......

"We" should be demanding cost forecasts on renewables and what this net zero energy infrastructure will look like.

There needs to be a wake up call and our Government needs to formulate a realistic energy plan for the future which is based on viable technology with a base line provided by nuclear, hydro and tidal, supplemented by Gas, wind, solar and Hydrogen. The battery technology remains an issue but here hydrogen may play a part as might hydro pumping batteries, the latter might contribute little but would use excess energy and provide instantaneous backup. All of this will cost money, but wind and solar will be hugely more expensive as their intermittency will rely on a dual gas backup system and imports, require replacement every 17 years, be exposed to the weather whilst both wrecking our balance of payments due to importation and our landscape.

ENQ, despite EPL is on a good trajectory, O&G will be required for decades, way beyond this century and when the UK government comes to its senses there will be a relaxation of EPL and a second smaller NS O&G boom and every last drop is squeezed out as part of transition or scientists will change their mind and tell us CO2 is not the culprit for seasonal/weather variations. Whatever, the World still needs to clean its act up, but that is pretty difficult with more and more wars taring the Earth apart.

This has been a good week for ENQ, Brent is rising and I think it is a race in terms of news between a deal and the next update in February.

Brief statement 3/1/25 said: “Capricorn announces that it has not received the final settlement payment of $22.5m from Waldorf Production UK PLC which was due today. Capricorn is considering all options to recover this overdue payment.

The game could be afoot with increasing pressure on Waldorf to finalise some kind of deal, given that Capricorn sold these assets to Waldorf some time ago I cannot imagine they want them back even if it is by default.

I think we'll see some sort of Waldorf move by ENQ or A. Another very shortly. If Waldorf is defaulting on payments of that size I don't see a rush of investors coming forward at this stage to rescue Waldorf again. In addition to ENQ, I bet the Administrators are also sitting by the phone!

Good end to the week and a nice ENQ sp pos+ trend running.

Brent now $5+ above about a month ago which after EPL is a potential improvement of around $870,000 a week.

Now looking forward to the update next month, whilst the last EPL payment will have made a dent in net debt reduction, if they share end of January figures and Brent remains at this level or above, it would give a good comparison between year end and January '25.

Otherwise, we wait to hear news of a deal.

I reckon Farrage had a word with Trump about NS O&G and on this matter Trump is right. The trouble is the cash strapped Labour Government have no room to manoeuvre and giving up even a dwindling tax revenue stream will be very difficult for them to palate financially and politically..... but if they want growth, the NS O&G tap is an easy one to turn on......

Brent at $76.35 is good news for ENQ, highest since middle of October '24.

The CEO is/was right to put Waldorf's best foot forward and it must be frustrating to have a viable company pulled from under you by a Government/EPL/banks. I agree with you managing Waldorf must be super stressing, especially as they are a private company and any fire sale outcome is not going to be pretty and Waldorf will never see the full value of the tax losses themselves or in a sale. Let's hope ENQ are the only ones in the running to scoop Waldorf up lock, stock and barrel.

Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03949599/filing-history

I took the tax loss figure from the last full set of filed accounts which was for 2022 filed in 2023, the it was $1.5bn+, so yes some of that will have been used up. Having looked at the filing history, perhaps of interest is that these accounts were the last filed and they and previous Apr for 2017, Apr for '18, Nov for '19, Sept for'20, Aug for'21 Aug'22 and Oct for '23 so on previous performance they are running quite late, hmmm......I wonder why?

Party time! Happy New Year.

Dumbly, the only thing that might save Waldorf or attract further investment are much higher and sustained oil prices. I also believe it is an all or nothing deal, producing wells and all liabilities. Any sensible "rescue" lender would have tied the assets up with covenants, to prevent piecemeal cherry picking sales. I believe Waldorf (following EPL implementation) have been on a hiding to nothing weighed down with debt (debt repayments forced by EPL, reducing liquidity) and exacerbated by low oil prices. I don't know Waldorf's net debt position, it was $400m as of 31/12/23, my guess is ENQ would start their bid at some of the net value of the rescue finance and I would hope they would seal the deal between $100-200m perhaps with a little future production payments. My guess is the net asset value after liabilities would well below $200m, as it was around that a couple of years ago, although it does not take into account accrued losses at around $1.5bn, but they are not a strong negotiating point with ENQ's $2.5bn of losses.

Dumbly, I think you are spot on and would only add that the lower H2 POO will have exacerbated Waldorf's troubles resulting in the 11/11/24 USD 15m loan to tide them over. I think that we are now close to a sensible deal for ENQ, my only concern is the question of competition, who else might be sniffing around or even deliberately mudding the waters?

Have to say, very pleased with 14.18% ENQ sp increase in 5 trading days and I think 2025 will be good for long term holders, it certainly vindicates my decision to add during December.

CLASSIC!

My New Year wish is that ENQ has a trading week like the last five days ever week in 2025.

A subsidy is a direct or indirect payment to individuals or firms, usually in the form of a cash payment from the government or a targeted tax cut. In economic theory, subsidies can be used to offset market failures and externalities to achieve greater economic efficiency.

Grant is the bloke from EastEnders.

I don't know what to believe anymore, but Modestus's post prompted me to in a couple of search words and I immediately came up with these two articles.

The first about Polar Bears and is self explanatory, apparently they are not in decline: https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-that-the-polar-bear-population-is-declining/

The second is for Romaron specifically and is from the WWF. Take a look at Point 8, which has the audacity to quote Ron's favourite "nine times cheaper" quote: https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/here-are-10-myths-about-climate-change?utm_source=Grants&utm_medium=PaidSearchBrand&pc=AWS014007&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzN3Fhe_AigMVppJQBh1BTCoAEAAYASAAEgJ-N_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Point 9 is off with the fairies!

Yes, I am worried about climate change but that is because I have been conditioned to do so, but I am increasingly concerned about the science and the subsidised band wagon that many are jumping on which is called Net Zero. To be honest, these days, I am more worried about a third World War - Climate Change may be a mute point!

Seasons Greetings from the Grinch, may ENQ's 2025 be a good one!

Took a quick look at revenue forecasts and thanks to the Ukraine effect and introduction of EPL, 2022-23 revenue hit £10bn, although the NS independents contribution missed out to some extent due to hedging policies due to financing conditions.

In three years time the forecast is £2bn and dropping, including EPL, if Ed has his way the decline will accelerate as will the Governments contribution to decommissioning which will eat into those revenues as will job losses and indirect taxation losses. Ed and his mates Rach and Keir have not thought this through, as with many of their policies they grab the taxes without appreciating the unintended consequences. We can only hope there is a change in leadership and policy.

ENQ being taken out remains a possibility although AB's holding, plus of course the loyal long termers on this BB, plus a dribble of buybacks and reducing costs and debt next year, ENQ's value will eventually be properly appreciated and with the current low share price, now is probably the optimum time for a take over or even someone taking a decent stake.

Dumbly, in my experience (mainly business and with Government Departments), when someone pushes an agenda beyond rational reason, personal interest and or corruption are present, along with incompetency and greed. We all assume that Eddie is simply fanatical about saving the planet but what is really driving him? It would be interesting to get the opinion of a professional profiler, he appears to be carrying a lot of personal baggage which may be his driving force and choosing climate change as his platform was his route back to political rebirth which is not necessarily good for the rest of us and may yet backfire through mis calculation and or lack of socioeconomic real World costings and impact.

Eddie's impact on the UK NS O&G industry is simply wrong as the import of energy will cause greater environmental impact and simply offshoring CO2 production does not achieve net zero.

Starmer has run with the Net Zero agenda in opposition because broadly everyone agrees that something needs to be done about pollution, unfortunately Sunak/Hunt and Eddie have boxed him into a corner over NS O&G EPL now he is in Government and can't afford to give up any source of tax income. Starmer's only chance is to fire Miliband by issuing proven costings and impacts of Ed's strategy and changing the NS O&G investment landscape, so that production is accelerated creating economic growth (reduced costs and emissions) but with the aim of closing the NS down earlier along side a more measured and cost effective transition strategy over a slightly longer period with improved technology.

Meanwhile ENQ sp is languishes but AB and his team are beavering away getting costs down, generating FCF, paying EPL and looking for production opportunities with capital losses as an advantage. I would bet on ENQ being around longer than this Labour shower in office, unless someone sees the intrinsic value of ENQ and snaps it up - 26p and I would walk away today. I have bought a fair few lately to lower my average and look forward to 2025/26 and 26p+.

Good find Ron, I not sure who will last longest in office out of Ed, Keir or Rachel, I am starting to think that Ed and his advisers are more dangerous than I previously thought. I can understand Ed jumping on a wave of net zero to recover an appallingly failed political career, perhaps he is now realising the impending folly but is too committed to be able to back out. If Starmer wants to survive, he needs to make a couple of sacrifices before the plebs get more restless. So, Ed, Rachel and their advisers need to be sacrificed on the political alter and a sustainable energy plan implemented that is an affordable transition that includes NS O&G and no EPL.

So after the good news RNS and although Brent down today, still at the same level at 22/11/24 - ENQ sp down 12% to 10.80p.

It does not make sense, just hope there is a deal or decent figures in 2 months time, a slightly perkier Brent would also help, although a lower price could force negotiations on any deal.

Mod, if they water down net Zero quotas, could they throw some cold water on EPL as well.

I wonder when Shell makes its mind up about delisting and moving to NY, that might be the pivotal point on top of lower tax revenues, dwindling investment, production decline, the accelerated and looming Government's share of decommissioning costs, plus job losses, energy security and of course NS O&G being one of the only levers for economic growth.

Ron, when a local councillor was asked why they were building replacement tennis courts and car parks on a flood plain, the response was "don't worry they are made of concrete and will dry out", as they started to build, the river broke its banks and washed all the site fencing away.

Sounds like a good expansion of ENQ's presence in Malaysia, but a little jam tomorrow until we get the details and some production.

Travelled through the country today, 50% of turbines idle?!

House prices falling, job hiring fallen to lowest level since 2009 and Oh dear Oh dear Oh dear, although an ENQ shareholder might say Ho Ho Ho - Ed Silly Moribund is in the news again..................This time it is Ed's Electricity rationing scheme that is in the news as 62% of the signed up to the scheme drop out in a year - Ooops. I hope Ed has his hand on the energy import lever. Ah, Norway is pulling out of exporting electricity, the French rubbing their hands with glee (£££££) and apparently all the Cod have left UK waters because Keir is going to keel over on fishing rights, but that has made room for record levels of small boats across the channel.

It looks like Ed's only option will be to turn on the gas to avoid blackouts as the UK runs not one but two electricity systems into and beyond transition. I have a question for Ed and his independent advisors, how much UK NS O&G production does he think we'll have left by 2030 and what will the revenue be from EPL?

Me thinks Ed is soon to be booted out of the Cabinet as he increasingly becomes a butt of jokes made by his peers, continues to make ridiculous claims and lacks any credibility. Keir then has the opportunity to put all the blame on Ed and re-set a few net zero goals and EPL. If Keir wants growth, addressing EPL and supporting the NS O&G is one of the biggest and most immediate handles he has to crank.

ENQ is making FCF and using up tax losses, so we continue to creep forward perhaps even towards a transformational deal and lower current costs are in the bag for 2025 and 2026 with lower lease costs and electrification - at least ENQ will produce its own gas for the latter!

House prices falling, job hiring fallen to lowest level since 2009 and Oh dear Oh dear Oh dear, although an ENQ shareholder might say Ho Ho Ho - Ed Silly Moribund is in the news again..................This time it is Ed's Electricity rationing scheme that is in the news as 62% of the signed up to the scheme drop out in a year - Ooops. I hope Ed has his hand on the energy import lever. Ah, Norway is pulling out of exporting electricity, the French rubbing their hands with glee (£££££) and apparently all the Cod have left UK waters because Keir is going to keel over on fishing rights, but that has made room for record levels of small boats across the channel.

It looks like Ed's only option will be to turn on the gas to avoid blackouts as the UK runs not one but two electricity systems into and beyond transition. I have a question for Ed and his independent advisors, how much UK NS O&G production does he think we'll have left by 2030 and what will the revenue be from EPL?

Me thinks Ed is soon to be booted out of the Cabinet as he increasingly becomes a butt of jokes made by his peers, continues to make ridiculous claims and lacks any credibility. Keir then has the opportunity to put all the blame on Ed and re-set a few net zero goals and EPL. If Keir wants growth, addressing EPL and supporting the NS O&G is one of the biggest and most immediate handles he has to crank.

ENQ is making FCF and using up tax losses, so we continue to creep forward perhaps even towards a transformational deal and lower current costs are in the bag for 2025 and 2026 with lower lease costs and electrification - at least ENQ will produce its own gas for the latter!

Norway's economy is growing, running a surplus, twice the UK's and bigger than the US, plus they are investing record levels into the O&GNS in 2025.

UK economy shrinking, running a huge deficit and destroying UK NS O&G, whilst bankrupting the country on the alter of Net Zero..... go figure?!

Dear Keir,

It is time you reconsidered EPL.

Yours sincerely

UK Population

At this point Oliver Twist comes to mind, Please Sir, I want some more.......spare us long suffering ENQ holders some benefits.......or should we ask Ed Miliscrouge for a subsidy?