Member Info for AIMing_high

I think a key to how the SP reacts post Ghana contract (other than the fees and contract length) will be how much of past can be forgiven by the market. I suspect we’ll keep a discount until there is at least one other managed service deal signed. PF certainly doesn’t seem overly stressed currently.....not that that’s any guarantee, but he does seem desperate to let a few things slip but holding back.

Spot of nice late afternoon buying maybe??

I agree. You have to remember that we have two contracts that our BoD have signed and neither have resulted in a penny in income. I appreciate that’s not their fault and hugely unlucky, but oh can’t blame the market for being sceptical until the contract actually lands and some meat is put on the bones in terms of details. Luckily we shouldn’t have to wait long

The numbers being thrown around were for Felixstow...of c. £10.50 This was the figure that I took to be the right ballpark as per PF. But H&N had a longer conversation so will know more

PF explicitly said it was not Sutcliffe that secured this deal.....even though he will works with WSG and this is his area of expertise.

Merci.

I’m not as confident as you that it will definitely be higher (I’m not dying you’re wrong though, just that I dont remember the higher bit) But he certainly indicated that it was that kind of ball park

Mike - would it be Peter.fowler@ ? Or do they have a different format?

We’re also talking capacity of the new port. There then needs to be the demand. I think even the small boats are moving over (I assume gradually) with only iron ore (not 100% on this) staying at the old port. But I think all containers move. It’s just a question of how fast.

I wouldn’t worry about the share price today. To totally understandable that the market gives this limited credence. The contract isn’t signed....there are no figures for fees or contract length....there is history of over promising.....but I really think this time it’s dofferent. That’s why I put my of my money where my mouth is......I may be proved wrong, but I haven’t felt this good about WSG in an awfully long time. (Anyone who ever reads my ramblings will know that’s I’m not generally one to ramp this thing.....my losses are substantial on this but I do believe in the underlying business)

Ha. I can see your thinking based on history. But I don’t think it’s a concern. The port has to have 100% of its containers scanned. If the scanning doesn’t happen, the port has to close. I don’t think they can easily find another security provider instantly.

Mike, they’ve been negotiating Ghana for about a year. Not that it makes any difference. This is much faster than any of the other MOUs! I’d be shocked if it wasn’t converted by end July......and more than a little miffed. To me, WSG has a decent underdog business now and assuming this has reasonable margins and a decent contract length then in my mind capital raises will be limited to M&A (I really hope not) and for capital outlay for new contracts (and is hope that was more likely non-dilutive financing). Feels like they’ve got their mojo back and, luckily for those of us willing to add, the share price doesn’t come close to reflecting this

DHC. I don’t think that WSG uses Smiths, they’re a big company who go direct to customers. can’t remember who they said they use, but they are indeed American so that would be an issue for Iran. I’d forget about Iran. Not priced in, not gonna happen any time soon, just think of it as a Brucy Bonus that may possibly come in the distant future.

PF said to me that one of the great things about it is that it’s a long term contract. So I agree....something like 15-20 years is where I’d pay my bet.

His take is that if they don’t screen the containers then the port has to shut down. So there is no reason to not sign the contract and the LOI was hugely detailed...so closer to a contract than normal. They certainly seemed confident which was nice to see The question is rates and contract period.

My take is that Ghana is happening soon (30-40 days), Africa is hopeful but timing entirely uncertain. Iran can be forgotten about.

Nope.

Evening Tosh. I must say that I’m feeling massively more confident about this Ghana contract than I ever was about the Africa one. I got the impression from both Sr and Jr Fowlers that it’s pretty inconceivable for this not to get the full go ahead. My take is that the market is understanbley hugely sceptical following so many false dawns. Thus the Ghana deal simply isn’t priced in enough. I added a little on the RNS and a little more post AGM.....medium term trade based on the share price popping when the details RNS comes out in the next 30-40 days. Let’s see how wrong I am this time!

Good summary, thanks. My take on the Iran deal was basically don’t hold your breath. To me it stays dormant until Trump changes his tune on sanctions or the US changes its president. Also on share purchases I got the impression that even if they are in an open period as of tomorrow they have no plans to buy any time soon. Neither of those points are particularly important given that they never seem to buy shares and It’s pretty obvious that Iran is in stasis

It’s not that scary. It can end up at zero. Since most people will be well over 50% down it’s less than they’ve lost already. If it went under I’d be more upset by the loss of potential upside than the actual cash loss