Member Info for Agricore

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/03/global-energy-storage-deployment-may-hit-500-gw-by-2031/
You have to wonder whether Europe won't embark on the same level of expansion as its 2 peers - the US and China. (e.g. the current Gas Crisis)
Under that scenario energy storage deployment could instead be more like 1TWH by 2030.
A massive tailwind for IES.

https://www.warriortrading.com/uplisting/
I found this link useful in what "OTC" means. The obvious benefit is a wider investment audience. On the back of the go ahead of the Inflation Reduction Act this could provide a popular area state side.

The Senate have now passed the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act). This should be positive for EQT and for various businesses involved in renewables either based in or serving the USA. We may even see a sharp upwards rebound next week. Most green plays are at least 10% off their recent lows.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2332499-what-will-the-inflation-reduction-act-mean-for-us-carbon-emissions/

In case you hadn't spotted this - the Inflation Reduction Act has been passed. It appears to contain everything I previously set out. This article gives a good synopsis of its wider aims.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2332499-what-will-the-inflation-reduction-act-mean-for-us-carbon-emissions/

Positive for IES meanwhile.

GLA

Thanks Joe - good news - Mike's about to get a second helping of news.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/04/us-added-4-2-gw-of-solar-in-h1/
What's interesting is the forecast growth of battery storage in the USA. NB: The inflation reduction act has been passed on Thursday.

I'm looking forward to Friday's Q2 results. Last reported NAV was 1292p and there's been buy backs since then. A rerate to 1400p+ isn't impossible, but holding the NAV steady during a turbulent period of war, shortage and pessimism will be impressive. The question is to what extent (if any) the Ukraine war has been a positive or negative for Georgia?
My estimation will be that it's actually been a positive.

GDP in Georgia is expected to reach 19.00 USD Billion by the end of 2022 (from 18.60 USD Billion 2021), according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Further ahead, the Georgia GDP is projected to trend around 21.00 USD Billion in 2023 and 22.00 USD Billion in 2024, according to its econometric models.

If that's true that's accelerating growth to circa 5%.

Have Align sold their IRON holding?

Their last blog seemed to be capitulation.

I will miss reading his raging blogs.

Aberdeenman yes that makes sense. The rich own assets and assets go up in value during inflationary times.

Currently I would be happy to achieve a return of investment!

It's good to see there's a lot of positivity, and if this can follow in the footsteps of Fevertree then, absolutely, a great 10 year story lies ahead. When I bought this I now believe I did so for diversification and on the logic of the (supposed) post-covid "re-opening". The reality is that the reopening has happened - but the bottles containing genies of inflation, war and recession have already been re-opened. I guess that's why I feel less positive here than yourselves.

Thanks all.

What I can piece together is last year full year sales were £2.8m (for an unknown number of crates) so there's no half year so assuming £1.4m then we know there's a 32% above budget. I don't think we know what the budgeted sales are either so again assuming the budget is 20% growth. That arrives at:

H1 2022 = £2.2m sales
Cost of sales we don't know any update about the US bottling but let's say that's been achieved. Let's say the cost saving offsets other inflationary costs so assume a reduction overall of 10% of COS. That gets me to about £1.65m

The GP therefore is about £550,000. But admin costs were £2.2m in 2021 so half that is £1.1m but we know they've recruited senior hires to drive US growth so again assuming a 20% growth gets me to £1.3m so a -£0.75m loss for H1.

I am assuming quite a few things but I am surprised by the (welcome) jump in share price. Can only put it down to insiders who know something - but my numbers would have to substantially wrong for it to be financially "exciting" (in 2022) or put another way I don't see how the risk that EISB doesn't succeed has reduced at all.

I've got a small holding but I honestly can't remember why I invested here, and pondering what to do next. Seeing 15% rises in a day makes it easier to do nothing!

GLA

YouYou stocks?

Given the drop in price over the past year you may well feel broker to invest here.

Does anyone have a view as to why and how this will increase from here?

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/

> Broker forecasts have been upped again and IPO now showing a 69% increase in forecast earnings and an increase from 8.3p EPS (last week!) to a next 12 months of 9p EPS.
> ONT is today back at £3.30 having bounced 20% off recent lows. Brokers also forecast improvement at ONT - at an aggregate £5.53 upside forecast.
> First Light Fusion - IPO hold 27.5% and was 3rd party valued at £417m in June 2022 so IPO booked a £57.3m gain in H1 2022 and its holding is now valued at £114.6m. Even though it only recently completed Series C based on the recent success it is actively engaged in Series D fundraising with UBS. (so further upgrades possible for IPO)

Today's RNS and £20m fundraise at a tight discount to current price is chock full of good news and progress ahead of plan. Some stocks are so under the radar that Maverick could fly them up a twisting valley at high speed. For example here I am, the first to comment on it 7 hours after the RNS?!

> Adjusted EBITDA -£4.4m vs a forecast -£4.5m
> Revenue £3.6m vs a forecast £3.9m
> Nice GM of 48%
> Pre-existing Joint Ventures:
1/ https://padminivna.com/ - India Tier 1 Automotive - **raising £ funds to address demand
2/ https://eav.solutions/ - Cargo Bikes

> 3 business Divisions:
1/ Light Vehicles * Contract Wins below
2/ Propel Marine ** raising £ funds to address demand.
3/ Heavy - Saietta Europe

> There are 4 Light Vehicle (AFT140) Contract Wins announced today:
1/ Ayro Inc (USA) (https://ayro.com/)
2/ Electric Assisted Vehicles Limited (UK) (https://eav.solutions/)
3/ An established OEM of Light-duty vehicles (India) (?)
4/ A new European vehicle platform developer (?)

5/ Additionally been awarded a £2 million grant from the UK Government's Automotive Transformation Fund under the Scale up Readiness Validation (SuRV) to support Saietta's investment in commercial vehicle e-axle pilot production and preparation for scale-up

> Precontract Pipeline
1/ Proof-of-concept e-drive system designs for two potential high-volume Light-duty commercial vehicle customers (India) which have the potential to develop into volumes in excess of 87,000 integrated AFT140 e-drive systems per annum
2/ Joint Venture proposed with Conmet (https://conmet.com/). A major vehicle OEM. Targetting sales of 100k units worth $1bn over 5 years (shared between Conmet and Saietta)

I think considering how much progress they've made, the prospects ahead and the turbulent market conditions of inflation, supply chain challenges and doing things pretty much from a standing start, the results are everything I hoped for - and more. The acquisition of Heavy Vehicles division, Sunderland factory are very smart. The JVs and contract wins and positive outlooks in Marine and Light are very welcome.

On one hand the bookbuild placing will drop the price, 5% tomorrow, but I expect there'll be others filling their boots on the back of these results.

In Hollywood, 100s of millions of people watched Maverick fly the impossible - but will the market detect what's going on under their noses?

GLA

Good grief Skid, you're still here?! I seem to recall you were waiting for a break even of 22p here. I got out at my break even at the dizzy heights of 15.5p some years ago (in 2020 maybe?). I saw it tipped in today's IC and was curious but it seems like GroundHog Day is going on here!

Good luck!

If Scaramucci is correct then SQ will do well in the coming months. If Bitcoin returns to $40k the unrealised gain on its BTC assets grows from $40m to $170m. $170m is only equal to 4% of SQ. market cap at today's $79 price but I doubt we would see a $79 price in a $40k Bitcoin world.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-has-already-bottomed-has-a-fair-value-of-40-000-says-anthony-scaramucci-11659465805?mod=dist_amp_social&link=sfmw_tw&redirect=amp

No worries Storm.

Last interview with Bob Rauker (3 weeks ago?) there was banging in the background and he apologised and said they were expanding the mfg facilities. Think it was the Paul Hill interview. And to be fair that was following the £6m fundraise in May 2022.

So they have that capacity increase as well as the Innomax coming on stream some time in 2023. This MSA raises unit costs but adds useful capacity of 20k units per annum. (To raise forecast EBITDA by 34%)
BELL's own capacity by 2025 is forecast to be capable of producing 50k units per annum.

Even in 3 years time, potentially the demand far outstrips the supply.

GLA

Thanks Aandi and DerSack -
So Premier Miton hold around 2.4%.

Surprisingly Dowgate believe "This agreement further increases Belluscura’s distribution in the US and helps to underpin the significant acceleration in unit sales that we forecast over the next three years." yet leave their forecasts completely unchanged.

It would be good to see some visibility over production capacity plans as the explanation for an unchanged forecast could be that there's constrained supply (presumably of around 4000 units in 2022 - i.e. Dowgate's unit sales forecast). They leave this unsaid, but the implication is there.

If that's true, then this news is long term positive but of no immediate value. I'd also add any talk of expanding to Europe and Asia is therefore equally premature if BELL can't yet address demand in its local market.

In fact I'd go on to say that logically if direct sales are sufficient, then it is illogical to expand its distribution partnerships since sales through these channels are less profitable (than direct sales).

GLA

Today's news from Hysata alone delivers 12% of the 8.3p forecast 2022 earnings and increases NAV by around 1p to £1.40/share. But beyond the nominal gain remember it's quite possible this will get bought out by an energy major or even possibly the likes of Ceres who are all cash rich and the prospect of "the cheapest" green hydrogen is the goose that lays golden eggs. Quite how a 38.5% discount to NAV and a forward FY2022 PE of about 10, remains here is baffling.

>>> Hysata, an Australian electrolyser company developing a completely new type of electrolyser featuring the world's most efficient electrolysis cell, launched last year having spun out of the University of Wollongong. The Hysata electrolyser operates at 95% system efficiency (41.5 kWh/kg), delivering a leap in performance and cost over incumbent technologies, which typically operate at 75% or less. This high efficiency, coupled with the simple approach to mass manufacturing and low supply chain risk puts the company on a path to delivering the world's lowest cost green hydrogen.
IP Group committed a total of A$19m (£10.9m*) to the funding round (A$9m(£5.1m*) from IP Group Australia and A$10m (£5.7m*) from our cleantech platform, Kiko Ventures). Following completion, the Group's stake in Hysata is valued at approximately £19.0m. IP Group has recorded a net unrealised fair value gain of approximately £8.4m.

GLA