Member Info for Agricore

Referring to this recent ST article:
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/06/20/bargain-shares-exploiting-a-valuation-disconnect/

I notice that MTR's holding of CBE *WAS* valued at £500,000 as at June 2022.
Quick bit of maths and it would appear CBE today has 165m shares in issue * AUD$ 0.22 share price / 1.74 FX rate * 21% MTR holding
I make that £4.4m i.e. the value of our holding has increased by 2.5p a share.
So either my maths is wrong or ST's maths is wrong as CBE hasn't 9 bagged it's 5 bagged.
The only thing I can think is ST muddled MTR's holding of CBE (wrongly said to be worth) £0.5m value with it being worth 0.5p/share??? (i.e. about £0.9m)

I also checked Armada is so far up 30% (AUD$ 0.05 to today's AUD$ 0.065). The 15m shares we hold equates to a £130k gain or 0.1p a share.

I also note Align are very bullish about Southern Gold too.

GLA

Worth being aware the Q2 2022 results for SQ come out this Thursday evening (4th Aug).
This will be the last quarter before the vote for the scheme (in Oct).
Consensus forecast Q2 earnings per share are 16c.
Last quarter earnings were forecast 20c and actual 18c.

https://www.ressssearch-tree.com/research/longspur-research/inflation-reduction-act/59_bd4c438c-e1e7-4884-8fed-ed3dffb3ab41
(NB spell "research" correctly in the above link)

The proposed Inflation Reduction Act will benefit EQT in the US. I posted this earlier in relation to IES but it applies just as much (and more) to EQT.

1. Carbon capture and storage benefits from an increase in the 45Q tax credit to $85/t from $50/t which is also extended to 2033.
2. Clean electricity and energy storage - 10 year tax credits
3. $30 billion of Grant and loan programme Clean electricity and energy storage - for states and electric utilities
4. Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment programme - reduce emissions in industrial manufacturing $6 bn

Farmers, Forrestland Owners and Resilient Rural Communities
1. Climate-smart agriculture practices Climate-smart agriculture practices $20 Billion
2. Grants Healthy, fire-resistant forests, forest conservation and urban tree planting $5 Billion
3. Tax credits and grants Domestic production of, and infrastructure for, sustainable aviation fuels and other biofuels n/a

>> Part of an overall programme of US$369bn in clean energy tax credits, grants and other incentives

Technical signals for EQT turned bullish Friday 29th:
https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=EQT.L

Amati had 429m shares and looking at the past 2 weeks over 800m shares have traded. What's interesting is there's clearly been strong support in the Nought Point 40s to hoover up those shares - I wonder whether any new IIs will emerge or whether Henderson, Liontrust or T Bailey will up their stakes? (Average down).

I distinctly remember Gervais Williams saying about how impressed he was in EQT and the demonstration he saw of their technology (it was the reason I invested in fact). Yet I don't see Premier Miton on the list of IIs. Perhaps he will have a tickle at these tasty prices? Amati's loss is his gain?

GLA

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/08/01/thinksmart-shareholders-should-think-twice/
Thompson has spoken. Hold out says the Tipster - reject the scheme.

Before I give my view on this advice. First I've been pondering the return on TSL. This evening's price puts TSL holding in Block worth 37.6p (618750 shares * $77.76 block price/1.2 FX rate)/106.59m shares. Warrants dilution potentially reduces this to around 36p (which ST quotes in his article).
I would remind shareholders of our recent special dividend June 22 and the dividend from December 2021 worth a further $0.0939 = 7.8p. That puts us at 36.2+7.8 = 44p equivalent return.

My reply to ST's advice is if you want to hold Block, vote for the motion receive your proceeds and reinvest them in SQ. It costs a few pounds to do so and if you are as bullish as ST now appears to be, then good luck. I may take this route too because I see a lot of opportunity in SQ. If I hold SQ. shares I can hold them or sell them in the future - I can't do that now because they are locked inside TSL shares.

**Importantly** to keep the TSL Plc running, costs a million or more a year (assuming they reduce costs). Why prolong these costs? The call centre income is finalising so all we will do if we vote against the scheme is reduce our holding of Block squares to pay ongoing corporate costs. Moreover, if we reject the scheme what's stopping this reverting to a 40% discount like before?? Rejecting the scheme is certain to drop the price of TSL.

So why did ST advise to reject the scheme?

Is ST hoping that time will revert this back up to a point where he can point to it as a success? He can't now, and a number of people bemoan the fact they listened to his tip here. Well, Simon Thompson if you're thinking twice then I'm thinking thrice and and I *WILL* be voting for the scheme and would encourage everyone else to do so for all the reasons outlined above......

GLA...... and Think Smart :)

CJ, assuming you own TSL, the "gamble" as you put it (the calculation is how I would put it) is will Block fall more than the 15% discount between now the enactment of the scheme in the Autumn? (*WHEN THE DISCOUNT TO BLOCK WILL DISAPPEAR*)

Given that a scheme at today's values would give approx 34.5p per TSL share. That would be the break even between selling at 30p today and getting 30p in the Autumn if Block falls 15.5% from its current price.

If you think it will fall be more than 15.5%, then sell today and be done with it.

If you instead consider that Block holds unrealised profits on its crypto (held at $20k, bitcoin is currently $24k), the turbulence in crypto is beneficial to block (they earn on trades), it has a positive outlook, and the consensus view is almost unanimously that its 12 month price level is far higher than here then stay the course and earn 15%-30% (in my calculation) for sitting on TSL for a few months more.

In other words barring some serious down move in the market, the odds are skewed in your favour i.e. downside risk is low, and the upside prospect is reasonable.

If you bought it to TSL at 90p+ thanks to Simon Thompson etc and are set to make a loss then the lens you should be looking at is do I make a big loss or a little loss? But if, like me, you thought the prior price of 21.5p was far too cheap (see my previous posts about the 40%+ discount to NAV) then you shouldn't be sitting on a loss now anyway :)

GLA

2. Clean electricity and energy storage - 10 year tax credits
3. $30 billion of Grant and loan programme Clean electricity and energy storage - for states and electric utilities

>> Part of an overall programme of US$369bn in clean energy tax credits, grants and other incentives.

https://www.ressssearch-tree.com/research/longspur-research/inflation-reduction-act/59_bd4c438c-e1e7-4884-8fed-ed3dffb3ab41
(spell research correctly in the above link)
2nd article: The Inflation Reduction Act will benefit IES in the US:
1. Carbon capture and storage benefits from an increase in the 45Q tax credit to $85/t from $50/t which is also extended to 2033.

This is an updated Exscientia presentation that's worth a read to any FIPP shareholders:
https://s28.q4cdn.com/460399462/files/doc_presentations/2022/06/Exscientia-IR-Presentation_June-2022.pdf
Page 10 is particularly impressive. 70% reduction in discovery time 80% better capital efficiency and 10x productivity designing optimal drug candidates.

The last reported NAV for FIPP was 84.7p so that puts it on a discount to NAV of 28% at current prices. The market perceives this NAV has shrunk but FIPP has a consistent track record of achieving NAV growth so we'll see. Lots (17) of exciting portfolio companies which are beavering away. We are due a trading update, and then the full year results will arrive in 3 months too.
GLA

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/half-year-report-rnsLSE20210803070008_4065605

We should be seeing a H1 update in the coming week. It should be the case that we'll see a decent jump in NAV on the back of strong oil and gas prices in Romania. When you compare to other plays on European energy this share hasn't risen one iota, despite the attractive economics of the deal they struck. I expect we'll see a rise in the dvidend too.

GLA

Richard08, How are you arriving at a PB of less than 1? I calculate it to be 1.6.
You can't include intangible assets in a PB calculation and the last reported net assets (FY2021) excluding these are £27.14m and the m.cap is £43.52m today.
As for using PB ratio as the valuation, I don't see it as being suitable (due to the type of business and its "intangibles").

Instead why don't yo use what the analysts all use which is a WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) and a DCF model together with an assumption of a 2.5% market share. At a 7.7x EV/EBITDA that translates to a target price of £1.77/share.

Interestingly, if IES instead takie a 10% market share the calculation for the target valuation translates to £6.74 per share. An 18 bagger at today's prices.

https://*********************/research/longspur-research/review-of-electricity-market-arrangements-rema-could-bring-benefits/59_9ef03cc9-6355-4510-b32e-cefd83d79a48

A relevant excerpt is:
Review of Electricity Marketing Arrangements (REMA) is a UK government plan to split wholesale electricity markets into a firm and a variable market with renewables in the latter and gas in the former. Battery and long duration storage would be able to charge in the lower-priced variable market and discharge in the stronger firm market so could continue to benefit from trading. Locational pricing could create benefits for providers of storage or other flexible solutions where these are located near zone boundaries. Well-located storage and flexibility providers such as Drax (DRX LN) or Invinity (IES LN) could benefit.

I've doubled my holding here today. Apart from my earlier reasoning (see my earlier posts on IES) there's 3 facts I've learned and I'll share:
1. As above - reforms will benefit IES in the UK. It's likely similar moves will happen elsewhere.
2. Comparing valuations Invinity is very cheap. For example Genex trades on EV/Sales of 17.9 falling to 13.4 in 2023 compared to IES on 1.2 falling to 0.4. (33 times cheaper).
Also EV/EBITDA forecast in 2023 is similarly much lower 4.6 vs 20.1 times. (4.5 times cheaper)

3. My recent experience with Corcel (CRCL) where part of their business was marketing a Gas Peaker plant, was that 45 or so potential investors turned around and declined to support the gas peaker at Avonmouth despite the ecomonics being extremely attractive. What does attractive look like?
£2,500 per MWH is the record and £200 MWH appears to be "average".
https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/low-winds-see-day-ahead-gb-power-prices-soar-to-2-000-mwh
That's incredibly profitable for a O&M running a gas peaker.
So what's this got to do with IES? Every one of the 45 or so EPC contractors were interested in a renewable energy/storage option.

GLA

Mcfcnige, simply a mismatch between the demand for Peakers (or energy) and the supply of investment for Peakers.
The challenge being that at what point would a gas peaker become a stranded asset, but also the ESG criteria that investment managers are under pressure to follow.

I'm a holder of the old Madagascan graphite company (whose name is forgotten), and the ICRG of TTAU intrigued me so I didn't dump TTAU when the reverse takeover occured. I managed to pick up some more TTAU first thing today for 1p as well. It's surprising that this hasn't moved on the double news from KZG and in fact that it's drifted down from the recent 1.2p due to the delays in prospecting (I suppose). The fact it is a non-diluting 10% for TTAU is interesting given the warrants in KZG. (I hold KZG nonetheless)

Saying that, today it shows a 8% rise. Plenty more to come with this one I think. The initial copper/gold grades at Specimin and Mt Cassidy look fabulous.

GLA

Congratulations to anyone who persisted in holding here and ignored the waffle. As I said, leaving aside the fortunes of Block that there *was* (past tense) a 39% discount to Block.

There's still a 8% discount on buying further shares as I calculate at today's Block price each TSL share is 35.5p..... or more if you feel Block's shares will recover to the average in the next 4 months. Which could add a further 20%.

>>> (4) From 1 February 2022 to 25 July 2022, ThinkSmart's share price has averaged 30.05 pence per share (based on daily closing price). Over the same period, the Block share price has averaged US$96.73 per share which, based on an average exchange rate of 1.2836 USD: 1 GBP with ThinkSmart owning 618,750 shares in Block and having 106,587,814 shares in issue, equates to 43.75 pence per ThinkSmart share.

CRCL paid £62k for the exclusive right to promote Avonmouth Gas Peaker.

According to Scott the raise is being used to pay for the ongoing "boots on the ground" in Papua New Guinea who are of course surveying and other field work.

Analyst report today puts fair value of BNC at 55% above this morning's stock price (é3.90)

Also reading the results further the overall ROTE is highly impressive at 13%.

What's particularly impressive too is the forecast dividend of 20c in 2022, 22c in 2023 & 26c in 2024. That equates to a forward dividend of over 10%!!!

Even though we have residual cash + $100,000 + another $2.4m cash coming + cash flow coming..... there's a constraint to growth. What is that?

And by the way I'm pretty happy about the warrants. I'll tell you for why.

Cash.

We have some exciting opportunities ahead (as we know). Every warrant that converted is extra cash that drips in to KZG's coffers and provides ammunition to grow the company quicker.

So perhaps rather than seeking the adrenalin of seeing a price rise over 10% or 20% today take a breath and think about the 530% longer term (assuming Align's target price is the correct one of 5.3p). As has been said already, even if you sold at 1.1p or 1.2p today you're frankly a lunatic.

We know which way this is heading and we'd all love for it to arrive quicker.

GLA

IPO is the 3rd highest broker upgrade 27th July. An increase from 4.5p to 8.3p forecast for NTM.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts

Equates to a forecast PE of sub 10 for a fast growing and exciting collection of deep tech and green tech at a 45% discount to NAV (where NAV has grown year on year)

And to top it all a 1% rise today the morning after tech in the USA/NASDAQ jumped over 4% too.

Initial thoughts are:
1. Vametco is flying - it shows what's possible and if BMN was just Vametco we would be extremely happy today.
2. Vanchem has issues - the ramp up of Kiln 3 and the ongoing refurb work and the ongoing power storage/generation work will alleviate in time.
3. Forward guidance is unaffected (albeit the point about now aiming at "lower end of expectations")
4. FeV price rises should offset production drops and cost rises to some extent.

To summarise it's another set back and there's short term negatives. The longer term picture remains intact and my view is the share price is already so incredibly cheap at 6.2p that if it drops then there's an unmissable opportunity to average down. (Noting my prior comments about BMN is already below it's book value, and also the outlook and growth of vanadium flow batteries)

GLA