Member Info for Agricore

Interesting to note that as at 9am the news that LUCY floats later today (2.30pm UK) has only lifted the price of TEK by 3.25p. The news lifts the NAV by 6.3p suggesting the market believes LUCY will be a failure. The market will know the truth of this later today and my thinking is there's a further rise in the price due later on.

The news is worth an $11.4m uplift to TEK (or £9.5m) or 6.3p/share added to NAV. This brings the $0.51 (42.1p) NAV per share to 48.4p.... so still on a 25% discount despite profits growth and achieving milestones.

Innovative Eyewear will be worth $55m at a $7.35 strike price and Lucyd Ltd owns 70% post ipo = $38.5m. In the last accounts Lucyd Ltd was worth $27.1m so 38.5-27.1 = 11.4.

**HOWEVER** If (when) Lucyd shares increase (let's suppose the price of LUCY doesn't tank as the disproportionately small rise in TEK this morning suggests) for every 10% jump ABOVE $7.35, the NAV jumps about 2.1p more. So if Lucyd jumps to $10/share post IPO for example then the total further gain to TEKkies is a further 7.5p (same as happened with BELL) ($55m/0.7 share/150m shares)

TEKkies should be holding on to their seats this week!

I'm really pleased with the results. I'd point out a couple of things:

Compared to Shore's 2022 estimates (who I would remind you have a target price of 85p) today's results are:
1. FFO +10% over target (pro rata).
2. Revenue +6.7% over target (pro rata).
3. EV/EBITDA = 0.7 not 0.8 per target. This is the metric of comparable EV/EBITDA that Shore use to arrive at 85p. Suggests an upwards revision.
4. Supportive, cash-generative environment for investment for H2 growth and 2023 growth.

Lots to feel pleased about I think.

The Services business did well; when you take out the exceptional costs (assuming we don't golden parachute another CEO out this year) then TPG would have made a profit... just.

Lots of kitchen sinking and feels cleaner as a result.

When you put it like that it makes me want to read out the first 2 words at a normal level and shout the third.......

net asset VALUE :)

For a commodity forecast to be trading at $28k in 2024 (Source: Trading Economics)

The Phase 1 expansion will help drive down the cost of production to where we remain profitable (target cost is $20.5k/tonne) vs a seemingly range bound $24k-$25k tin price.

For the Lithium/Tanatalum, I expect we'll see some sort of Lithium offtake agreement similar to what the "neighbours" Kazera have done. For Kazera it was $7.5m in exchange for 49% of lithium. The Chinese are very active in acquiring lithium although there may be interest from elsewhere too. On today's news we should see a re-rate (it makes no sense that we are at the same 5p(ish)) that we were when production costs were up at $33k/tonne and there were many uncertainties.

I've topped up in anticipation.

GLA

mrozzy, guess again. It's worth $11.4m uplift to TEK (or £9.5m) or 6.3p/share added to NAV.

That's because: Innovative Eyewear will be worth $55m and Lucyd Ltd owns 70% post ipo = $38.5m. In the last accounts Lucyd Ltd was worth $27.1m so 38.5-27.1 = 11.4.

**HOWEVER** If (when) Lucyd shares increase for every 10% jump, the NAV jumps about 2.1p more. So if Lucyd jumps to $10/share post IPO for example then the total further gain to TEKkies is a further 7.5p (same as happened with BELL) ($55m/0.7 share/150m shares)

So great news - and TEKkies can hold on to their seats this week!

GLA

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=vanadium+redox+flow+battery
Interesting that IES are using Google adwords - they appear where I search for VRFBs

PS don't click on the sponsored link in google. It'll cost IES for each time you do.

When you look at it from the perspective of IES' customers (the utility companies) the below article echoes M.Lynn's observation: Growth. Growth thanks to electrification LCOE (levellised cost of energy), growth due to "friendshoring", and growth due to Net Zero Commitments and Agreements.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/10/why-is-green-energy-infrastructure-booming-despite-global-economic-woes/

IES is at a pivotal moment and its ability to reduce cost per unit this year will be vital. From a demand perspective, it's all to play for.

I'm further encouraged by the fact that round trip efficiency on VRFBs are 85% and potentially can get to 90% in time.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/vanadium-redox-flow-battery

SD, arguably even wine is a staple :)
Can't say I've ever had the pleasure of a Georgian Vintage however.
It's defensive in the verticals: Hospitals, insurance, clinics, pharmacy, education, renewables, utilities --- mainly boring businesses, but in an interesting economy.

Hi all, thanks for your explanations and I contemplated the answers. Ultimately, I felt that I still didn't feel comfortable with the extent of the losses. I do get the hedging is profit foregone, but for the foregone profits to exceed the profits quite literally doesn't add up. The liability feels opaque and that equals risk.

So I decided to sell out of here for now.

https://www.schroders.com/en/uk/private-investor/fund-centre/funds-in-focus/investment-trusts/schroders-investment-trusts/uk-public-private-trust/portfolio/
> The link above gives the top 20 holdings. Some very interesting fintech, biotech and hitech plays in there.
> Particularly, if you read the largest holding ONT's story this has an exciting future ahead helping organisations code genes in super quick time and a much reduced cost.
> Previously was 65% health. I'm noticing a rebound in Biotech which will benefit SUPP.
> 42% discount to NAV - when it reached this level previously it reverted to 30%
> Buy back programme should boost the next reported NAV
> Definitely is poor sentiment towards this share, I feel that too. It's my creature under the stairs.

....but is the market missing the underlying value on offer here?

https://www.*************.com/views/63723/jubilee-metals-operations-update-now-tremendous-potential-growth-you-bet
......So we now have a range to analyst estimates at 21p (HSR), 22p (ST) and 29p (WHI)

The last solid "waypoint" was $9/share in March 22 (the FY2021 results). NAV $283m. Shares in issue 31.45m.
2022 changes:
Backblaze: -£40.76m / - $1.30 (Publicly listed shares dropped from $16.60 to $8.17)
Jan 22 Update +$37.2m / + $1.29 share (Rerate on Bolt's Jan 2022 Fundraise and other of its 50 holdings)
Ukraine/Russia -$4.6m (-$0.15) writedowns based on "potentially affected" businesses
= $8.84/share
Historic 5 year average IRR 38%
Historically traded 10-20% premium to NAV (due to its high growth)
If this average continues then that would mean a $1.68 uplift this coming week to $10.52/share

Current share price puts this at between a 55.4% and 62.5% discount to NAV ($8.84 or $10.52 vs $3.94)

This is well above any other VC fund and assumes that there's huge skeletons in the closet. The fact is its 3 biggest plays are well funded (Bolt, Backblaze and Pandadocs) and these make up about 68% of the portfolio. TMT itself has lots of cash following a fund raise last year and realisations.

Even being most pessimistic this is on a very high discount, and I think the market has overlooked the value on offer here. We will see on the H1 update. Should be released this coming week or the week after.

GLA

Also I'd shout out TMT as similar to TEK and another S.Thompson favourite. Large holdings are Bolt (Food delivery and eScooters), Pandadoc (CRM), Backblaze (Like MS Onedrive but cheaper!). On a 55% discount to NAV to my latest calculation.

I think CGEO is getting tarred with a Russian brush. But value will out. It's also good for diversification and is quite a defensive play in the current uncertain env't.

I found this article very insightful as to the complexity of the political situation but interesting too that there appears to be a brain drain of skilled Russian seeking to move to a democratic, free country.
https://globalvoices.org/2022/08/12/georgia-and-russia-spar-with-online-bullying-historical-grievances-and-visa-regulations/

I would love to be convinced. But if there were "another buyer offering an attractive premium" wouldn't that have already happened? Was the $10m loaned to STX at an "attractive premium"?! I'm sorry but the terms of the loan felt to me like a last chance saloon.
I maintain the assertion that the maximum downside might not just be a 2p drop from here. I have shown how that may not be the case.

Good luck to holders and I do hope STX prospers. I will watch and hopefully get comfortable to get back in.

The Hardman analyst misses (or ignores) the crucial point that the $10m loan is secured on the US IP rights of the company. In other words if further finance cannot be agreed in 4.5 months then Accrufer is limited to Europe/Asia.
The analysis is that Europe/Asia is potentially worth 15p a share. And that further assumes just a 3x dilution.
At a 6x dilution it's at or slighly above fair value today.

I previously sold out at a loss here at 14p - and was glad I did. The calculus presented does hold potential upside but be aware of risks not properly considered in that promotional interview.

GLA

Interestingly even after the dust has settled, the special dividends given this still trades at a 2.9p a share discount to the current buy price (38p) and a 5.9p discount to the current offer price.

This means if the winding up vote goes through (see my earlier note it's madness to keep a £2m/year admin cost of a Plc going after October when it's only asset/operation are Block shares.... you lose about 5% of your holding per year while you wait!), there's a 14.4% return in 3 months to today's price plus (or minus) and movement from Square's market price (currently $85.94)

GLA

SD I think we can be (very) happy with 1472p.

Personally I'm happy they carry on with the buy backs. The uplift today is in large part to the 6% of shares hoovered up at a bargain price. Long term that's the most lucrative way to appreciate the value here.

GLA

Who knows? Return of investment may just become return *ON* investment!

I'd still like better clarity on the business, but today's news is an exciting development to be sure.

GLA